Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020)

Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and replacement on developed land in California communities using simulations of P. ramorum spread and infection risk over the next decade (2010-2020). An estimated 734 thousand oak trees occur on developed land in communities in the analysis area. The simulations predict an expanding sudden oak death (SOD) infestation that will likely encompass most of northwestern California and warrant treatment, removal, and replacement of more than 10 thousand oak trees with discounted cost of $7.5 million. In addition, we estimate the discounted property losses to single family homes of $135 million. Expanding the land base to include developed land outside as well as inside communities doubles the estimates of the number of oak trees killed and the associated costs and losses. The predicted costs and property value losses are substantial, but many of the damages in urban areas (e.g. potential losses from increased fire and safety risks of the dead trees and the loss of ecosystem service values) are not included.     

The effects of opportunistic and intentional predators on the herding behavior of prey

In this article, we study how predator behavior influences the aggregation of prey into herds. Game-theoretic models of herd formation are developed based on different survival probabilities of solitary prey and prey that join the herd and on the predator's preference of what type of prey to search for. For an intentional predator that will only pursue its preferred type of prey, a single herd with no solitaries cannot emerge unless the herd acts as a prey refuge. If neither prey choice provides a refuge, it is shown that an equilibrium always exists where there are both types of prey and the predator does not always search for the same type of prey (i.e., a mixed equilibrium exists). On the other hand, if the predator is opportunistic in that it sometimes shifts to pursue the type of prey that is observed first, there may be a single herd equilibrium that does not act as a prey refuge when there is a high level of opportunistic behavior. For low opportunistic levels, a mixed equilibrium is again the only outcome. The evolutionary stability of each equilibrium is tested to see if it predicts the eventual herding behavior of prey in its corresponding model. Our analysis confirms that both predator and prey preferences (for herd or solitary) have strong effects on why prey aggregate. In particular, in our models, only the opportunistic predator can maintain all prey in a single herd that is under predation risk.     

A comparison of rapid and conventional measures of indicator bacteria as predictors of waterborne protozoan pathogen presence and density

E. coli and enterococci in recreational waters are monitored as indicators of fecal contamination, pathogen presence, and health risk. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) tests for fecal indicator bacteria can provide beach managers with same-day information about water quality, unlike culture methods which provide that information the following day. The abilities of qPCR measurements of indicator bacteria, as compared to culture measurements of indicator bacteria, as predictors of pathogen presence or density in surface waters are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to make such comparisons between water samples collected from Chicago area surface waters, including rivers, inland lakes, Lake Michigan, and the Chicago Area Waterways System, which is dominated by wastewater effluent. A total of 294 twenty-litre samples were collected and analyzed for Giardia and Cryptosporidium. qPCR and membrane filtration methods were used to quantify E. coli and enterococci. Correlation, logistic regression, and zero-inflated Poisson modeling were utilized to evaluate associations between indicators and parasites. qPCR and culture measures of the indicator bacteria were similar in their ability to predict parasite presence and density. Correlations between parasites and indicators were generally stronger at waters not dominated by effluent. Associations between indicator density and Giarida presence were observed more consistently than between indicator density and Cryptosporidium presence. Associations between enterococci and parasites were generally stronger than associations between E. coli and parasites. The use of qPCR monitoring in our setting would generate more timely results without compromising the ability to predict parasite presence or density.     

Monoclonal antibody-based broad-specificity immunoassay for monitoring organophosphorus pesticides in environmental water samples

The development of easy-to-use and rapid-monitoring immunoassay methods for organic environmental pollutants in a class-selective manner is a topic of considerable environmental interest. In this work, a heterologous competitive indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ciELISA) based on a monoclonal antibody (MAb) with broad-specificity for organophosphorus pesticides (OPs) was applied to the detection of O,O-diethyl and O,O-dimethyl OPs in water samples. The ciELISA conditions were carefully optimized to obtain a three to five-fold improvement of sensitivity for most OPs, and thirteen OPs were determined at concentrations ranging from 0.017 to 30 ng mL(-1). The determination of spiked environmental water samples showed average recoveries from 81.5% to 115.1%, with the coefficient of variation (CV) ranging from 6.1% to 20.9%, which showed satisfactory reproducibility of the developed ciELISA. To overcome the negative aspect of broad-specificity immunoassays not providing qualitative and quantitative analysis of individual OPs in blind samples, we used "percent inhibition rate" to make the developed ciELISA a semi-quantitative method, which allows the monitoring of positive samples from hundreds of negative samples. The determination of OPs in blind water samples by the developed ELISA with confirmation by HPLC-MS/MS analysis demonstrated that the assay is ideally suited as a screening method for OP residues prior to chromatographic analysis.     

Facilitating disaster preparedness through local radio broadcasting

The 2008 Disaster Mitigation Preparedness (DMP) study took place in Aceh province, Indonesia. It sought to help develop radio programmes and messages to increase resilience to disasters. The role of radio was evaluated during and after the 2004 Asian tsunami disaster. The study team interviewed 984 tsunami survivors from nine sub-districts of Banda Aceh, and local nongovernmental organisations convened eight focus groups around the area of Aceh Besar. Six key informant interviews were held with government disaster management agencies. The DMP survey is the first of its kind to interview a representative random sample of Banda Aceh residents. It reveals the importance of community and social networks, during disaster situations, when essential communications are down. A disaster warning information system based on a multi-media approach needs to be developed. The wider community should be involved in the planning, education and training of Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar residents to facilitate appropriate personal and community survival strategies.     

Environmental refuge from disease-driven amphibian extinction

Species that are tolerant of broad environmental gradients may be less vulnerable to epizootic outbreaks of disease. Chytridriomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, has been linked to extirpations and extinctions of amphibian species in many regions. The pathogen thrives in cool, moist environments, and high amphibian mortality rates have commonly occurred during chytridiomycosis outbreaks in amphibian populations in high-elevation tropical rainforests. In Australia several high-elevation species, including the armored mist frog (Litoria lorica), which is designated as critically endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), were believed to have gone extinct during chytridiomycosis outbreaks in the 1980s and early 1990s. Species with greater elevational ranges disappeared from higher elevations, but remained common in the lowlands. In June 2008, we surveyed a stream in a high-elevation dry sclerophyll forest and discovered a previously unknown population of L. lorica and a population of the waterfall frog (Litoria nannotis). We conducted 6 additional surveys in June 2008, September 2008, March 2009, and August 2009. Prevalences of B. dendrobatidis infection (number infected per total sampled) were consistently high in frogs (mean 82.5%, minimum 69%) of both species and in tadpoles (100%) during both winter (starting July) and summer (starting February). However, no individuals of either species showed clinical signs of disease, and they remained abundant (3.25 - 8.75 individuals of L. lorica and 6.5-12.5 individuals of L. nannotis found/person/100 m over 13 months). The high-elevation dry sclerophyll site had little canopy cover, low annual precipitation, and a more defined dry season than a nearby rainforest site, where L. nannotis was more negatively affected by chytridiomycosis. We hypothesize this lack of canopy cover allowed the rocks on which frogs perched to warm up, thereby slowing growth and reproduction of the pathogen on the hosts. In addition, we suggest surveys for apparently extinct or rare species should not be limited to core environments.     

Diploid male production — a significant colony mortality factor in the fire ant Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Summary Two forms of the fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, occur in North America; the monogyne form has colonies with a single functional queen while the polygyne form has colonies containing many functional queens. Field surveys indicate that diploid males are common in natural populations of the polygyne form but absent from monogyne populations, in contrast to laboratory data showing that similar frequencies of queens producing such males occur in the two types of populations. Our results show that mature monogyne colonies with adopted queens rear diploid males in the laboratory, so it is unlikely that the absence of these males from monogyne colonies in the field is due to discrimination against them by monogyne workers. On the other hand, incipient monogyne colonies that produce diploid males exhibit significantly higher mortality and significantly slower rates of growth (Figs. 1–3) than colonies producing workers only. These results suggest that the observed distribution of male diploidy in S. invicta can be explained by differential mortality of diploid male producing colonies of the two forms, with such colonies of the monogyne form experiencing 100% mortality early in development. The mortality differences due to this factor are shown to be related to the different social structures and modes of colony founding characterizing the two forms.     

Conservation Prioritization Using GAP Data

Data collected by the Gap Analysis Program in the state of Idaho (U.S.A.) are used to prioritize the selection of locations for conservation action and research. Set coverage and integer programming algorithms provide a sequence of localities that maximize the number of species or vegetation classes represented at each step. Richness maps of vegetation cover class diversity, terrestrial vertebrate species diversity ("hot spot analysis"), endangered, threatened, and candidate species diversity, and unprotected vertebrate species diversity ("gap analysis"), when prioritized, show a rapid accumulation of species as more localities are chosen for terrestrial vertebrates and unprotected vertebrates. Gap analysis identifies four target areas ("gaps") that include 79 of the 83 vertebrate species not currently protected. Accumulation of vegetation cover classes and endangered, threatened, and candidate species is much slower. Sweep analysis is used to determine how well prioritizing on one component of diversity accumulates other components. Endangered, threatened, and candidate species do not sweep total vertebrates as well as unprotected vertebrates do, but are better than vegetation classes. Total vertebrates sweep endangered, threatened, and candidate species better than unprotected vertebrates do, which in turn are better than vegetation classes. We emphasize that prioritization must be part of conservation efforts at multiple scales and that prioritization points out important localities where more detailed work mast be undertaken.     

Ocean acidification and warming alter photosynthesis and calcification of the symbiont-bearing foraminifera Marginopora vertebralis

The impact of elevated CO₂ and temperature on photosynthesis and calcification in the symbiont-bearing benthic foraminifer Marginopora vertebralis was studied. Individual specimens of M. vertebralis were collected from Heron Island on the southern Great Barrier Reef (Australia). They were maintained for 5 weeks at different temperatures (28, 32 °C) and pCO₂ (400, 1,000 µatm) levels spanning a range of current and future climate-change scenarios. The photosynthetic capacity of M. vertebralis was measured with O₂ microsensors and a pulse-amplitude-modulated chlorophyll (Chl) fluorometer, in combination with estimates of Chl a and Chl c ₂ concentrations and calcification rates. After 5 weeks, control specimens remained unaltered for all parameters. Chlorophyll a concentrations significantly decreased in the specimens at 1,000 µatm CO₂ for both temperatures, while no change in Chl c ₂ concentration was observed. Photoinhibition was observed under elevated CO₂ and temperature, with a 70–80 % decrease in the maximum quantum yield of PSII. There was no net O₂ production at elevated temperatures in both CO₂ treatments as compared to the control temperature, supporting that temperature has more impact on photosynthesis and O₂ flux than changes in ambient CO₂. Photosynthetic pigment loss and a decrease in photochemical efficiency are thus likely to occur with increased temperature. The elevated CO₂ and high temperature treatment also lead to a reduction in calcification rate (from +0.1 to >?0.1 % day^?1). Thus, both calcification and photosynthesis of the major sediment-producing foraminifer M. vertebralis appears highly vulnerable to elevated temperature and ocean acidification scenarios predicted in climate-change models.