我国4个直辖市CO2净排放现状和趋势预测

从人均和单位GDP CO2碳净排放角度,借鉴显示性比较优势理论,对我国4个直辖市2005-2011年人均和单位GDP CO2碳净排放状况及其之间的差异大小进行计算,采用一元线性回归模型对4个直辖市未来几年人均和单位GDP CO2排放趋势和差异大小变化进行了预测,针对造成4个直辖市目前CO2排放现状的成因进行分析,并提出了建议.     

华北地区工业经济与二氧化硫治理关系研究

采用变异系数和空间自相关等分析方法对我国华北地区5省市单位工业产值SO2排放量、SO2去除比例的差异大小和空间聚集特性进行了分析,并采用线性回归方法对未来几年发展变化趋势进行了预测,提出了相关建议.     

Predicting Nitrogen Loading With Land-Cover Composition: How Can Watershed Size Affect Model Performance?

Watershed-wide land-cover proportions can be used to predict the in-stream non–point source pollutant loadings through regression modeling. However, the model performance can vary greatly across different study sites and among various watersheds. Existing literature has shown that this type of regression modeling tends to perform better for large watersheds than for small ones, and that such a performance variation has been largely linked with different interwatershed landscape heterogeneity levels. The purpose of this study is to further examine the previously mentioned empirical observation based on a set of watersheds in the northern part of Georgia (USA) to explore the underlying causes of the variation in model performance. Through the combined use of the neutral landscape modeling approach and a spatially explicit nutrient loading model, we tested whether the regression model performance variation over the watershed groups ranging in size is due to the different watershed landscape heterogeneity levels. We adopted three neutral landscape modeling criteria that were tied with different similarity levels in watershed landscape properties and used the nutrient loading model to estimate the nitrogen loads for these neutral watersheds. Then we compared the regression model performance for the real and neutral landscape scenarios, respectively. We found that watershed size can affect the regression model performance both directly and indirectly. Along with the indirect effect through interwatershed heterogeneity, watershed size can directly affect the model performance over the watersheds varying in size. We also found that the regression model performance can be more significantly affected by other physiographic properties shaping nitrogen delivery effectiveness than the watershed land-cover heterogeneity. This study contrasts with many existing studies because it goes beyond hypothesis formulation based on empirical observations and into hypothesis testing to explore the fundamental mechanism.     

Assessing Sediment Yield for Selected Watersheds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin Under Future Agricultural Scenarios

In the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), corn acreage has been expanding since 2005 in response to high demand for corn as an ethanol feedstock. This study integrated remote sensing-derived products and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a geographic information system (GIS) modeling environment to assess the impacts of cropland change on sediment yield within four selected watersheds in the GLB. The SWAT models were calibrated during a 6 year period (2000–2005), and predicted stream flows were validated. The R ² values were 0.76, 0.80, 0.72, and 0.81 for the St. Joseph River, the St. Mary River, the Peshtigo River, and the Cattaraugus Creek watersheds, respectively. The corresponding E (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) values ranged from 0.24 to 0.79. The average annual sediment yields (tons/ha/year) ranged from 0.12 to 4.44 for the baseline (2000 to 2008) condition. Sediment yields were predicted to increase for possible future cropland change scenarios. The first scenario was to convert all “other” agricultural row crop types (i.e., sorghum) to corn fields and switch the current/baseline crop rotation into continuous corn. The average annual sediment yields increased 7–42 % for different watersheds. The second scenario was to further expand the corn planting to hay/pasture fields. The average annual sediment yields increased 33–127 % compared with baseline conditions.     

公众参与环境执法角色关系探析

环境是公共的,环境利益具有公众性。在环境执法中积极吸纳公众意见,是国家民主管理社会的体现。公众参与环境执法的角色定位即：政府在环境执法中处于核心地位,拥有最终裁量权;企业是环境执法的对象;公众是环境执法的最终受益者。政府、企业与公众的沟通协调是公众参与环境执法的有效机制。     

Chlorophyll a Simulation in a Lake Ecosystem Using a Model with Wavelet Analysis and Artificial Neural Network

Accurate and reliable forecasting is important for the sustainable management of ecosystems. Chlorophyll a (Chl a) simulation and forecasting can provide early warning information and enable managers to make appropriate decisions for protecting lake ecosystems. In this study, we proposed a method for Chl a simulation in a lake that coupled the wavelet analysis and the artificial neural networks (WA–ANN). The proposed method had the advantage of data preprocessing, which reduced noise and managed nonstationary data. Fourteen variables were included in the developed and validated model, relating to hydrologic, ecological and meteorologic time series data from January 2000 to December 2009 at the Lake Baiyangdian study area, North China. The performance of the proposed WA–ANN model for monthly Chl a simulation in the lake ecosystem was compared with a multiple stepwise linear regression (MSLR) model, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a regular ANN model. The results showed that the WA-ANN model was suitable for Chl a simulation providing a more accurate performance than the MSLR, ARIMA, and ANN models. We recommend that the proposed method be widely applied to further facilitate the development and implementation of lake ecosystem management.     

毛皮染色废水工艺的处理效率及微生物群落的影响

毛皮染色废水是一种高盐度、难降解、高污染的工业废水,整个处理环节都对环境生态有潜在的危害。文章采用4种不同废水处理工艺在相似操作运行参数下对毛皮染色废水进行处理,并利用T-RFLP技术观察不同处理工艺下活性污泥中细菌群落的多样性及群落结构的变化。结果表明,在4种处理工艺中,效果最好的是HA-SBR法,其COD、BOD5及NH4+-N的去除率分别可以达到93.75%、94%和93.59%。T-RFLP分析表明处理工艺的不同对细菌群落结构的变化有着较大的决定作用,变形杆菌门(Proteobacteria)、厚壁菌门(Firmicutes)及拟杆菌门(Bacteroidetes)是活性污泥中的优势种群,不同处理工艺下微生物群落多样性同NH4+-N浓度关系最为密切。研究还表明,通过添加特定微生物菌剂或调节生化工艺可以增加微生物群落多样性,从而增强污泥体系抗污染物冲击性能,提高处理效果。     

超声空化及絮体破碎过程的模拟与试验分析

为探究利于空化效应的超声条件及超声波破碎絮体机理,基于Matlab平台建立空化气泡模型及2种简化的有限扩散聚集(DLA)絮体破碎模型,进行计算机仿真,并通过试验分析得到实际絮体破碎模式.结果表明:随着超声频率的增加,空化效应减弱;声能密度的增加导致空化气泡振幅增大,声能密度为7W/mL时气泡振幅可达初始半径的200倍,空化效果较好.低声能密(0.03~3W/mL)和低超声频率(25~40kHz)处理絮体时,剥蚀作用为主导作用,超声后絮体粒径减小,分形维数增大;声能密度超过3W/mL或频率大于40kHz,大规模破碎占主导作用,实际絮体粒径减幅小且结构散.40kHz的超声频率更利于絮体的破碎,作用10min后,絮体粒径减幅达9.8%,分形维数为1.394,结构更加密实.     

环境空气质量新标准下评价体系重点解读

随着环境空气质量新标准的发布,一系列空气质量实时发布和评价方法相继发布,且短时信息发布和长期质量评价之间的关系较为复杂,易造成基层评价人员和公众的困惑和疑问.结合国家几个相关技术规范文件,对空气质量实时发布方法前后变化、每月各城市排名通报以及月度、年度评价公布结果进行重点解读,说清各评价方法之间的不同之处及其带来的评价结果变化,为指导基层空气质量评价工作和公众了解官方空气质量发布内容起到一定的作用.     

Comprehensive and high-resolution emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants for the northernmost cities agglomeration of Harbin-Changchun, China: Implications for local atmospheric environment management

Using a bottom-up estimation method, a comprehensive, high-resolution emission inventory of gaseous and particulate atmospheric pollutants for multiple anthropogenic sectors with typical local sources has been developed for the Harbin-Changchun city agglomeration (HCA). The annual emissions for CO, NOx, SO₂, NH₃, VOC_S, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC and OC during 2017 in the HCA were estimated to be 5.82 Tg, 0.70 Tg, 0.34 Tg, 0.75 Tg, 0.81Tg, 0.67 Tg, 1.59 Tg, 0.12 Tg and 0.26 Tg, respectively. For PM₁₀ and SO₂, the emissions from industry processes were the dominant contributors representing 54.7% and 49.5%, respectively, of the total emissions, while 95.3% and 44.5% of the total NH₃ and NOx emissions, respectively, were from or associated with agricultural activities and transportation. Spatiotemporal distributions showed that most emissions (except NH₃) occurred in November to March and were concentrated in the central cities of Changchun and Harbin and the surrounding cities. Open burning of straw made an important contribution to PM_2.5 in the central regions of the northeastern plain during autumn and spring, while domestic coal combustion for heating purposes was significant with respect to SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions during autumn and winter. Furthermore, based on Principal Component Analysis and Multivariable Linear Regression model, air temperature, relative humidity, electricity and energy consumption, and the urban and rural population were optimized to be representative indicators for rapidly assessing the magnitude of regional atmospheric pollutants in the HCA. Such indicators and equations were demonstrated to be useful for local atmospheric environment management.