Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

Comparison of Soil Extraction Isotherms of Soil Samples Saturated With Nonpolar Liquids

In multiphase systems capillary pressures play a significant role on fluid movement and retention. The facility to predict the effect of different thermal remediation strategies requires the knowledge of the effect of temperature on capillary pressure-saturation relationships in the soils. The objective of recent study was (a) to develop a technique for routinely measuring the pressure-saturation curves of soil samples saturated with a nonpolar liquid at different regulated temperatures (b) to build a database using the measured pressure-saturation curves and the physical, chemical properties of the model soils (c) to establish the dependence of nonaqueous phase liquid retention on the soil properties and the temperature. The retention curves (extraction isotherms) with nonaqueous phase liquid were determined using a modified pressure plate extractor. The wetting phase was a non-aromatic hydrocarbon distillation product. Pressure plates were designed and constructed in the laboratory of our department. The temperature was held constant at 20, 40 and 60 ^∘C. Statistical analysis was performed involving selected soil parameters and the measured nonaqueous phase liquid retention data. The results show that knowing some easily measurable soil parameters (bulk density, particle size distribution, humus and lime content) we can estimate the nonaqueous phase liquid retention of the soils. The measured “extraction isotherms” provide essential information about the temperature-dependency of pressure-saturation curves.     

Atmospherically deposited major and trace elements in the winter snowpack along a gradient of altitude in the Central Pyrenees: The seasonal record of long-range fluxes over SW Europe

The chemistry of high mountain snowpacks is a result of the long-range atmospheric transport and deposition of elements. Pyrenean snowpacks contain information about the fluxes of elements over SW Europe in winter. Here we analysed Al, Ti, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Cd and Pb in the 2004–05 winter snowpack in the Central Pyrenees, at an altitude range of 1820–3200 m a.s.l. Ni, As, Se and Cd were not detected in most cases. The concentrations of the remaining elements were comparable to those found in other high mountain areas in Europe and North America considered representative of regional background of atmospheric deposition in populated areas. In contrast, our measurements were higher than those of polar areas, which represent the global background. Single measurements of concentrations and snow accumulation were subject to considerable spatial variability, which may be attributable to strong wind drift and other post-depositional processes. The major ions chemistry of the snow indicated three possible origins for the solutes: terrigenous dust, sea salt spray and polluting S and N aerosols. We found no association between Cu, Zn and Pb and any of these possible sources. This observation therefore indicates that these elements were not preferentially bound to any particular kind of aerosol. Snow collected at altitudes of up to 2050 m a.s.l. presented higher concentrations of several elements than snow above this altitude, thereby indicating a local influence. Snow collected above 2300 m a.s.l. was therefore more representative of broad regional inputs. At these higher altitudes, snow was not enriched in Al, Ti, Mn, Fe or As compared with the composition of the upper continental crust and the local lithology, and these elements (except Mn) appeared almost exclusively in the particulate fraction. This observation indicates that Al, Ti, Mn, Fe and As were present mainly as part of dust particles of terrigenous origin. In contrast, Cu, Zn, and Pb presented medium to high enrichment factors and showed a higher proportion of soluble forms, thereby indicating their polluting character.     

An Observation Method for Analyzing Operators’ Routine Activity in Computerized Control Rooms

An activity analysis method was developed for studying the structure and dynamics of control room operators’ activity during normal operation based on directly observable elements of the operators’ behavior. The method assesses current activity along three dimensions in each 5-min period of the shift. Intensity characterizes arousal level, direction shows whether the activity is directed predominantly at the process control task, at something else, or miscellaneous. Motivation reflects if the activity is driven by intrinsic or extrinsic motivation. A case study is presented, in which 3 morning, 3 afternoon, and 3 night shifts of a Nuclear Power Plant operator crew are involved. The obtained results gave a deeper understanding of the operators’ activity and also revealed an “arousal compensation” tendency.     

Company Strategies and Program for Implementing Ergonomics

Three periods of work environmental activity in the company will be presented: (a) A period without a work environmental organization and an environmental budget, covered approximately 1 year; (b) A period when an environmental organization with a separate work environmental budget was established. This period covered 15 years; (c) A period when the company was divided in 3 companies without a separate work environmental budget, but still an environmental organization, covering the last 12 years.     

An approach for domino effect reduction based on optimal layouts

An approach to reduce the probability of producing a domino effect in process industry is developed in this work. It is assumed that optimal layouts should include appropriate analysis to reduce risk during the process design stage. The model developed for this approach combines the estimation of probability of damage due to overpressure, proposed by Mingguang and Juncheng (2008), and escalation threshold values defined by Cozzani, Gubinelli, and Salzano (2006). These equations are combined with other typical layout constraints as well as bounding the probability constraint, which has resulted in a highly non-linear MINLP problem. Solving a case study used by other authors provides evidence for reliability of the developed approach. In this way, layouts are designed to reduce the escalation probability yielding safe distributions.     

Effects of payments for ecosystem services on wildlife habitat recovery

Conflicts between local people's livelihoods and conservation have led to many unsuccessful conservation efforts and have stimulated debates on policies that might simultaneously promote sustainable management of protected areas and improve the living conditions of local people. Many government‐sponsored payments‐for‐ecosystem‐services (PES) schemes have been implemented around the world. However, few empirical assessments of their effectiveness have been conducted, and even fewer assessments have directly measured their effects on ecosystem services. We conducted an empirical and spatially explicit assessment of the conservation effectiveness of one of the world's largest PES programs through the use of a long‐term empirical data set, a satellite‐based habitat model, and spatial autoregressive analyses on direct measures of change in an ecosystem service (i.e., the provision of wildlife species habitat). Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat improved in Wolong Nature Reserve of China after the implementation of the Natural Forest Conservation Program. The improvement was more pronounced in areas monitored by local residents than those monitored by the local government, but only when a higher payment was provided. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of a PES program depends on who receives the payment and on whether the payment provides sufficient incentives. As engagement of local residents has not been incorporated in many conservation strategies elsewhere in China or around the world, our results also suggest that using an incentive‐based strategy as a complement to command‐and‐control, community‐ and norm‐based strategies may help achieve greater conservation effectiveness and provide a potential solution for the park versus people conflict.     

Urinary stones as a novel matrix for human biomonitoring of toxic and essential elements

Monitoring of body burden of toxic elements is usually based on analysis of concentration of particular elements in blood, urine and/or hair. Analysis of these matrices, however, predominantly reflects short- or medium-term exposure to trace elements or pollutants. In this work, urinary stones were investigated as a matrix for monitoring long-term exposure to toxic and essential elements. A total of 431 samples of urinary calculi were subjected to mineralogical and elemental analysis by infrared spectroscopy and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The effect of mineralogical composition of the stones and other parameters such as sex, age and geographical location on contents of trace and minor elements is presented. Our results demonstrate the applicability of such approach and confirm that the analysis of urinary calculi can be helpful in providing complementary information on human exposure to trace metals and their excretion. Analysis of whewellite stones (calcium oxalate monohydrate) with content of phosphorus <0.6 % has been proved to be a promising tool for biomonitoring of trace and minor elements.

     

The effect of humic acid in chronic deoxynivalenol intoxication

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The most common mycotoxin found in European foodstuffs, especially unprocessed grains, is deoxynivalenol (DON), which inhibits proteosynthesis and...