在波罗的海不同的气候条件下模拟的海面温度和热通量

本文使用由不同的全球模拟所产生的区域性耦合海洋-大气模型,通过数值模型试验探讨了波罗的海气候未来可能的物理状况.将一些情景以及近来的一些气候模拟情况作了比较,以估计气候变化.海面温度总体平均明显地增高2.9℃.平均年平均增温的水平模式主要可由冰盖的减少解释.由大气向波罗的海的热输送表现出季节性变化周期秋季热损失减少,春季热吸收增加,夏季热吸收减少.年际间海面温度的变化一般是在增加.这与北部一些中平滑的频率分布有关.全部热收支表示出海面太阳辐射在增加,而太阳辐射增加由热通量其他组成成分的变化所平衡.     

Optimising the environmental benefits of emission reductions from UK coal- and oil-fired power stations: a critical loads approach

This paper describes a method for determining reductions of SO₂ emissions from coal- and oil-fired power stations, oil refineries and large industrial units in the UK taking into account their pollution potential. The method is based on the use of two gridded data sets: critical loads, which represent the sensitivity of the environment to acid deposition and modelled estimates of total (wet + dry) sulphur deposition for 646 point sources within the UK. An iterative method is used to identify and subsequently reduce emissions from point sources that contribute most to areas of critical loads exceedance. This paper demonstrates how the method may be used to determine an optimal allocation of emissions across the UK which yields the maximum amount of environmental protection per unit of emission.The paper then goes on to consider the changes that will have to take place within the UK power generation industry in order to meet the revised EC Large Combustion Plant Directive which comes into force on 1 January 2008. Particular emphasis is placed upon proposed emissions trading schemes and the environmental implications of allowing trading between stations with high and low pollution potentials. The paper concludes by suggesting that the emissions trading process should take into account the pollution potential of each source, irrespective of whether the proposed emission is within the plant's agreed emission limit. An approach based entirely on minimizing environmental damage rather than one which takes cost into account, as in current integrated assessment modelling, could provide an interesting approach across the rest of Europe.     

Developing Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System to Meet the Reporting Requirements of the Kyoto Protocol

The rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere can be reduced by decreasing emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and by increasing the net uptake (or reducing the net loss) of carbon in terrestrial (and aquatic) ecosystems. The Kyoto Protocol addresses both the release and uptake of carbon. Canada is developing a National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System in support of its international obligations to report greenhouse gas sources and sinks. This system employs forest-inventory data, growth and yield information, and statistics on natural disturbances, management actions and land-use change to estimate forest carbon stocks, changes in carbon stocks, and emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases. A key component of the system is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS). The model is undergoing extensive revisions to enable analyses at four spatial scales (national, provincial, forest management unit and stand) and in annual time steps. The model and the supporting databases can be used to assess carbon-stock changes between 1990 and the present, and to predict future carbon-stock changes based on scenarios of future disturbance rates and management actions.     

Simulating dairy liquid waste management options as a nitrogen source for crops

Large scale dairy operations are common. In many cases the manure is deposited on a paved surface and then removed with a flushing system, after which the solids are separated, the liquid stored in ponds, and eventually the liquid applied on adjacent crop land. Management of liquid manure to maximize the fertilizer value and minimize water quality degradation requires knowledge of the interactive effects of mineralization of organic N (ON) to NH₄⁺, crop uptake of mineral N, and leaching of NO₃⁻ on a temporal basis. The purpose of the research was to use the ENVIRO-GRO model to simulate how the amount of applied N, timing of N application, ON mineralization rates, chemical form of N applied, and irrigation uniformity affected (1) yields of corn (Zea mays) in summer and a forage grass in winter in a Mediterranean climate and (2) the amount of NO₃⁻ leached below the root zone. This management practice is typical for dairies in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The simulations were conducted for a 10-year period. Steady state conditions, whereby an equivalent amount of N applied in the organic form will be mineralized in a given year, are achieved more rapidly for materials with high mineralization rates. Both timing and total quantity of N application are important in affecting crop yield and potential N leaching. Major conclusions from the simulations are as follows. Frequent low applications are preferred to less frequent higher applications. Increasing the amount of N application increased both the crop yield and the amount of NO₃⁻ leached. Increasing irrigation uniformity increased crop yields but had variable effects on the amount of NO₃⁻ leached. A winter forage crop following a summer corn crop effectively reduced the leaching of residual soil N following the corn crop.     

Can Forest-protection carbon projects improve rural livelihoods? Analysis of the Noel Kempff Mercado climate action project,Bolivia

We studied the Noel KempffMercado Climate Action Project (NKMCAP),Bolivia, to assess whether forestprotection carbon (C) projects cansignificantly benefit local people. Wehypothesized that forest protection canonly securely deliver C if significantstakeholders are meaningfully andtransparently involved, traditional orcustomary rights are recognized and theirloss compensated for, and there are directlinkages between conservation anddevelopment objective. Our researchfocused on 53 members of the communities ofFlorida, Porvenir and Piso Firme and 36secondary stakeholders. In each of thevillages we held half-day meetings withcommunity leaders, complemented bysemi-structured one-hour interviews with 5,10, and 7 families, representing 20%, 10%and 8% of each community. The long-termimpact of the NKMCAP on the localcommunities may well be positive. However,in the short run, certain sections of thelocal communities are financially poorer. Forest protection projects clearly have thepotential to sequester C, protectbiodiversity and simultaneously contributeto sustainable rural development, but ifthey really are to improve rurallivelihoods, they must be designed andimplemented carefully and participatively.     

博茨瓦纳欧科范果湿地1972～2000年泛滥方式

欧科范果三角洲地区泛滥范围年年在变化.这种变化与安哥拉高地集水区的区域性降水及当地降雨量有关.我们采用了1972～2000年的3000多幅卫星图像来描绘湿地的格局,其中从1985～2000年的图像几乎是NOAAAVHRR每日连续传送的,1972年以来的其它图像是从Landsat传感器上传下来的,其连续性次之.对AVHRR图像每10天为一期,用无监督分类方法分成陆地和水体.对LandsatTM和ERS2-ATSR数据进行分析的结果,与测算的淹没区域89%相吻合.结果显示欧科范果湿地近期30年期间的变化约在2450～11400km2之间.     

Sustainable resource management coupled to resilient germplasm to provide new intensive cereal–grain–legume–livestock systems in the dry savanna

Sustainable resource management is the critical agricultural research and development challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. The accumulated knowledge on soil management gathered over the last 10 years, combined with solid crop improvement and plant health research at farmers’ level, has brought us to a stage where we can now address with confidence the intensification of cereal–grain–legume-based cropping systems in the dry savanna of West Africa in a sustainable and environmentally positive manner.Two sustainable farming systems that greatly enhance the productivity and sustainability of integrated livestock systems have been developed and implemented in the dry savanna of Nigeria. These are: (i) maize (Zea mays L.)–promiscuous soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotations that combine high nitrogen fixation and the ability to kill large numbers of Striga hermonthica seeds in the soil; and (ii) miflet [Eleusine coracana (L.) Gaerth] and dual-purpose cowpea [Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.]. Improvement of the cropping systems in the dry savanna has been driven by the adoption of promiscuously nodulating soybean varieties (in particular TGx 1448-2E) and dual-purpose cowpea. The rate of adoption is very high, even in the absence of an efficient seed distribution system. The number of farmers cultivating the improved varieties increased by 228% during the last 3 years. Increased production of promiscuous soybean has been stimulated by increased demand from industries and home utilization. Production in Nigeria was estimated at 405,000 t in 1999 compared to less than 60,000 t in 1984. Economic analysis of these systems shows already an increase of 50–70% in the gross incomes of adopting farmers compared to those still following the current practices, mainly continuous maize cultivation. Furthermore, increases in legume areas of 10% in Nigeria (about 30,000 ha in the northern Guinea savanna) and increases of 20% in yield have translated into additional fixed nitrogen valued annually at US$ 44 million. This reflects, at the same time, an equivalent increase in land-use productivity, and with further spread of the improved crops, there are excellent prospects for additional economic and environmental benefits from a very large recommendation domain across West Africa.