Emission Strength Validation Using Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation: Application to Primary Aerosol and Precursors to Ozone and Secondary Aerosol

ABSTRACT

Three-dimensional air quality models (AQMs) represent the most powerful tool to follow the dynamics of air pollutants at urban and regional scales. Current AQMs can account for the complex interactions between gas-phase chemistry, aerosol growth, cloud and scavenging processes, and transport. However, errors in model applications still exist due in part to limitations in the models themselves and in part to uncertainties in model inputs. Four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) can be used as a top-down tool to validate several of the model inputs, including emissions inventories, based on ambient measurements. Previously, this FDDA technique was used to estimate adjustments in the strength and composition of emissions of gas-phase primary species and O₃ precursors.

In this paper, we present an extension to the FDDA technique to incorporate the analysis of particulate matter (PM) and its precursors. The FDDA approach consists of an iterative optimization procedure in which an AQM is coupled to an inverse model, and adjusting the emissions minimizes the difference between ambient measurements     

Analysis of a Summertime PM2.5 and Haze Episode in the Mid-Atlantic Region

Abstract

Observations of the mass and chemical composition of particles less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5), light extinction, and meteorology in the urban Baltimore-Washington corridor during July 1999 and July 2000 are presented and analyzed to study summertime haze formation in the mid-Atlantic region. The mass fraction of ammoniated sulfate (SO₄ ^2-) and carbonaceous material in PM_2.5 were each ～50% for cleaner air (PM_2.5 < 10 μg/m³) but changed to ～60% and ～20%, respectively, for more polluted air (PM_2.5 > 30 μg/m³). This signifies the role of SO₄ ^2- in haze formation. Comparisons of data from this study with the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments network suggest that SO₄ ^2? is more regional than carbonaceous material and originates in part from upwind source regions. The light extinction coefficient is well correlated to PM_2.5 mass plus water associated with inorganic salt, leading to a mass extinction efficiency of 7.6 ± 1.7 m²/g for hydrated aerosol. The most serious haze episode occurring between July 15 and 19, 1999, was characterized by westerly transport and recirculation slowing removal of pollutants. At the peak of this episode, 1-hr PM_2.5 concentration reached ～45 μg/m³, visual range dropped to ～5 km, and aerosol water likely contributed to ～40% of the light extinction coefficient.     

Methodology for Siting Ambient Air Monitors at the Neighborhood Scale

Abstract

In siting a monitor to measure compliance with U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for par-ticulate matter (PM), there is a need to characterize variations in PM concentration within a neighborhood-scale region to achieve monitor siting objectives. A simple methodology is provided here for the selection of a neighborhood-scale site for meeting either of the two objectives identified for PM monitoring. This methodology is based on analyzing middle-scale (from 100 to 500 m) data from within the area of interest. The required data can be obtained from widely available dispersion models and emissions databases.

The performance of the siting methodology was evaluated in a neighborhood-scale field study conducted in Hudson County, NJ, to characterize the area’s inhalable particulate (PM₁₀) concentrations. Air monitors were located within a 2- by 2-km area in the vicinity of the Lincoln Tunnel entrance in Hudson County. Results indicate the siting methodology performed well, providing a positive relationship between the predicted concentration rank at each site and the actual rank experienced during the field study. Also discussed are factors that adversely affected the predictive capabilities of the model.     

Determination of Levoglucosan in Atmospheric Fine Particulate Matter

Abstract

A microanalytical method suitable for the quantitative determination of the sugar anhydride levoglucosan in low-volume samples of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM) has been developed and validated. The method incorporates two sugar anhydrides as quality control standards. The recovery standard sedoheptulosan (2,7-anhydro-β-D-altro-heptulopyranose) in 20 μL solvent is added onto samples of the atmospheric fine PM and aged for 1 hr before ultrasonic extraction with ethylacetate/ triethylamine. The extract is reduced in volume, an internal standard is added (1,5-anhydro-D-mannitol), and a portion of the extract is derivatized with 10% by volume N-trimethylsilylimidazole. The derivatized extract is analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The recovery of levoglucosan using this procedure was 69 ± 6% from five filters amended with 2 μg levoglu-cosan, and the reproducibility of the assay is 9%. The limit of detection is ～0.1 μg/mL, which is equivalent to ～3.5 ng/m³ for a 10 L/min sampler or ～8.7 ng/m³ for a 4 L/min personal sampler (assuming 24-hr integrated samples). We demonstrated that levoglucosan concentrations in collocated samples (expressed as ng/m³) were identical irrespective of whether samples were collected by PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm or PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm impactors. It was also demonstrated that X-ray fluorescence analysis of samples of atmospheric PM, before levoglucosan determinations, did not alter the levels of levoglucosan.     

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Atmospheric Pollutants in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Part I: Hourly and Seasonal Ozone

Abstract

Recently, a comprehensive air quality modeling system was developed as part of the Southern Appalachians Mountains Initiative (SAMI) with the ability to simulate meteorology, emissions, ozone, size- and composition-resolved particulate matter, and pollutant deposition fluxes. As part of SAMI, the RAMS/EMS-95/URM-1ATM modeling system was used to evaluate potential emission control strategies to reduce atmospheric pollutant levels at Class I areas located in the Southern Appalachians Mountains. This article discusses the details of the ozone model performance and the methodology that was used to scale discrete episodic pollutant levels to seasonal and annual averages. The daily mean normalized bias and error for 1-hr and 8-hr ozone were within U.S. Environment Protection Agency guidance criteria for urban-scale modeling. The model typically showed a systematic overestimation for low ozone levels and an underestimation for high levels. Because SAMI was primarily interested in simulating the growing season ozone levels in Class I areas, daily and seasonal cumulative ozone exposure, as characterized by the W126 index, were also evaluated. The daily ozone W126 performance was not as good as the hourly ozone performance; however, the seasonal ozone W126 scaled up from daily values was within 17% of the observations at two typical Class I areas of the SAMI region. The overall ozone performance of the model was deemed acceptable for the purposes of SAMI’s assessment.     

Evaluation of Vegetation Near Coal-burning Power Plants in Southwestern Pennsylvania. II. Ozone Injury on Foliage of Hybrid Poplar

The objective of this study was to determine if the incidence or severity of foliar injury induced by regional, ambient ozone was influenced by local emissions from a complex of coal-burning power plants in southwestern Pennsylvania. Plantings of an ozonesensitive hybrid poplar clone {Populus maximowizii x trichocarpa, clone NE 388) were established in 1972 at various distances and directions from the power plants. Foliar injury caused by ambient ozone was evaluated annually from 1973 to 1990 in early to mid- August. Data are presented for the 12-year period, 1979 to 1990 inclusive, for which the most complete data sets were available. Injury from ambient ozone varied spatially and temporally, but with little relationship to power plant location. There was an apparent negative relationship between emission trends and ozone-induced symptoms, but only for one power plant. The correlation between annual mean levels of ozone-induced stipple and frequency of days (per year) with a 1-hr ozone maximum exceeding 0.04 ppm was weak, but significant. Ozone-induced bifacial necrosis was not observed on the foliage of the hybrid poplar during the drought year of 1988 in spite of record high levels of ozone; however, ozoneinduced stipple was observed.     

The evolution of the Canadian mining industry: The role of regulatory punctuation

In this study, we analyze the evolution of Canada's mining industry from 1929 to 2006, focussing on the determinants of the number of firms in the industry and why this number changed over that period. Most empirical studies of industry evolution have focused on manufacturing industries that share similar structural characteristics. Perhaps because of this, extant models of industry evolution tend to ignore industry-specific and national-specific factors that can cause atypical trajectories, that is, heterogeneous industry evolution. Initial inspection of the Canadian mining industry shows that it is atypical in that it exhibits “negative skew” over time in the number of firms rather than the typical “positive skew.” We review two dominant theoretical approaches to industry evolution: the density-dependence theory and variants of industrial organization economics. We also consider possible sources of industry evolution heterogeneity, focussing particularly on “regulatory punctuation”. Using Canadian mining data, we find that the traditional models do not fully explain the changes in population size in Canada's mining industry. As a result, we introduce a number of hybrid models. The results from these hybrid models suggest that Canadian-specific regulatory punctuations, particularly the introduction of significant new taxes, environmental legislation, and incentives have shaped the trajectory of mining firm participation.     

Comparison of summer and winter California central valley aerosol distributions from lidar and MODIS measurements

Aerosol distributions from two aircraft lidar campaigns conducted in the California Central Valley are compared in order to identify seasonal variations. Aircraft lidar flights were conducted in June 2003 and February 2007. While the ground PM_2.5 (particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) concentration was highest in the winter, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) measured from the MODIS and lidar instruments was highest in the summer. A multiyear seasonal comparison shows that PM_2.5 in the winter can exceed summer PM_2.5 by 68%, while summer AOD from MODIS exceeds winter AOD by 29%. Warmer temperatures and wildfires in the summer produce elevated aerosol layers that are detected by satellite measurements, but not necessarily by surface particulate matter monitors. Temperature inversions, especially during the winter, contribute to higher PM_2.5 measurements at the surface. Measurements of the mixing layer height from lidar instruments provide valuable information needed to understand the correlation between satellite measurements of AOD and in situ measurements of PM_2.5. Lidar measurements also reflect the ammonium nitrate chemistry observed in the San Joaquin Valley, which may explain the discrepancy between the MODIS AOD and PM_2.5 measurements.     

Estimating carbon in savanna ecosystems: rational distribution of effort

Minimising the cost of repeatedly estimating C (C) stocks is crucial to the financial viability of projects that seek to sell C credits. Depending on the price of C, this may imply less or more sampling effort than would be applied for science objectives. In systems with heterogeneous C pools, such as savannas, this translates into a variable-effort sampling strategy that maximises the marginal additional C that can be claimed per incremental unit of effort expended. Analysis of a savanna in north-eastern South Africa indicates relatively modest returns per hectare due to the small C quantities and low sequestration rates. Under these conditions, areas in excess of 1,000 ha and infrequent sampling frequencies of 5–10 years are required to make such projects financially viable. For such projects the sample variance, number of samples, cost per sample and establishment costs have negligible impacts on financial viability. It was also found that the soil-C pool contributes up to three times the net returns of the aboveground C pool and provides a strong argument to monitor soil C for certification and market trading. The financial viability estimates, however, do not include the management or opportunity costs incurred in changing the land use. The economies of scale identified in this study combined with the massive area covered by savannas indicate that these additional costs can be covered. Further research is recommended to quantify these costs and interrogate the feasibility of large scale (in excess of 10,000 ha) C-sink projects in savanna systems.