Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Genomic erosion in a demographically recovered bird species during conservation rescue

The pink pigeon (Nesoenas mayeri) is an endemic species of Mauritius that has made a remarkable recovery after a severe population bottleneck in the 1970s to early 1990s. Prior to this bottleneck, an ex situ population was established from which captive-bred individuals were released into free-living subpopulations to increase population size and genetic variation. This conservation rescue led to rapid population recovery to 400–480 individuals, and the species was twice downlisted on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. We analyzed the impacts of the bottleneck and genetic rescue on neutral genetic variation during and after population recovery (1993–2008) with restriction site-associated sequencing, microsatellite analyses, and quantitative genetic analysis of studbook data of 1112 birds from zoos in Europe and the United States. We used computer simulations to study the predicted changes in genetic variation and population viability from the past into the future. Genetic variation declined rapidly, despite the population rebound, and the effective population size was approximately an order of magnitude smaller than census size. The species carried a high genetic load of circa 15 lethal equivalents for longevity. Our computer simulations predicted continued inbreeding will likely result in increased expression of deleterious mutations (i.e., a high realized load) and severe inbreeding depression. Without continued conservation actions, it is likely that the pink pigeon will go extinct in the wild within 100 years. Conservation rescue of the pink pigeon has been instrumental in the recovery of the free-living population. However, further genetic rescue with captive-bred birds from zoos is required to recover lost variation, reduce expression of harmful deleterious variation, and prevent extinction. The use of genomics and modeling data can inform IUCN assessments of the viability and extinction risk of species, and it helps in assessments of the conservation dependency of populations.     

Ozonation catalyzed by homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysts for degradation of DEHP in aqueous phase

Di-(2-ethyl hexyl) phthalate (DEHP), a recalcitrant and an endocrine disrupting chemical, was studied for its removal from wastewater by advanced oxidation process. The effects of pH, transition metal ions, and granular activated carbon (GAC) were investigated. Removal of DEHP increased with increase in pH and among metal ions Cr(III) was found to be the most active catalyst to remove DEHP. In the case of GAC, original carbon (G0) and GAC pre-ozonated in gas phase for 10 min (G10) were tested as catalysts in catalytic ozonation and found G0 to be more active than G10. This is because, during pre-ozonation, basic groups like chromene, pyrones and also graphene layers were oxidized to acidic surface oxygen groups. These basic surface groups are reported to be active catalytic centres for ozone decomposition into .OH which is a strong oxidant. According to kinetic manipulations, DEHP degradation rate constant due to .OH was affected by the catalyst while that due to direct ozonation is same in all cases with or without catalyst. G0 was doped with chromia gels (G0/CrA) to combine the benefits of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysis. G0/CrA showed lower catalytic efficiency than that of only G0. This might be because of changes in surface structure of GAC caused by doping of chromia gel and changes in chemical nature of Cr(III) during formation of gel. A good correlation was found between the rate constants of ozone decay and DEHP degradation (R2=0.96). This correlation confirms that ozone decomposition into .OH is a critical factor for the activity of a catalyst during ozonation.     

Physiological costs of compensatory growth in a damselfly

Little is known about physiological costs of rapid growth. We successfully generated compensatory growth to time stress and transient food stress in the damselfly Lestes viridis and studied the physiological correlates of the resulting reduced ability to cope with starvation. We found evidence for both mechanisms proposed to underlie the physiological trade-off: compensatory growth was associated with (1) a higher metabolic rate, as indicated by a higher oxygen consumption and a faster depletion of energy storage molecules (glycogen and triglycerides), and (2) a smaller investment in energy storage. The former may also explain why storage molecules after emergence were negatively affected by time stress and food stress, despite the successful compensation before emergence. These deferred physiological costs of rapid growth have the potential to couple larval stresses to adult fitness irrespective of age and size at emergence, and they may partly explain why many animals do not show their maximum achievable growth rate.     

A review of the distribution of particulate trace elements in urban terrestrial environments and its application to considerations of risk

We review the evolution, state of the art and future lines of research on the sources, transport pathways, and sinks of particulate trace elements in urban terrestrial environments to include the atmosphere, soils, and street and indoor dusts. Such studies reveal reductions in the emissions of some elements of historical concern such as Pb, with interest consequently focusing on other toxic trace elements such as As, Cd, Hg, Zn, and Cu. While establishment of levels of these elements is important in assessing the potential impacts of human society on the urban environment, it is also necessary to apply this knowledge in conjunction with information on the toxicity of those trace elements and the degree of exposure of human receptors to an assessment of whether such contamination represents a real risk to the city’s inhabitants and therefore how this risk can be addressed.     

Assessment of the environmental conditions of the Sarno river basin (south Italy): a stream sediment approach

The Sarno river basin covers an area of 500 km² collecting the waters of Solofrana and Cavaiola tributaries. Originally it manly represents a source of livelihood for inhabitants by fishing and transporting goods; currently, the Sarno river, still partially used for irrigation, is affected by an extreme environmental degradation as a result of uncontrolled outflow of industrial waste. Within the framework of a wider geochemical prospecting project aiming at characterizing the whole territory of the Campania region, 89 stream sediment samples with a sampling density of 1 sample per 5 km² were collected in the river basin and analyzed by means of inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry in order to assess the environmental conditions at a regional scale. A GIS-aided technique, based on both the actual distribution of potentially harmful elements and their regional background values, was used to generate the maps of the contamination factors and of the contamination degrees for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn. Furthermore, a factor analysis was performed to assess the nature and the extent of contamination sources for the river sediments. Results showed that the Sarno river basin could be divided in two “environmental status” units: one, low contaminated, corresponding to the hilly and mountain areas, and the second, from moderately to very highly contaminated, corresponding to the economically developed areas of the valley floor characterized by a high population density. This work was developed within a project that aims to investigate the relationships between environmental pollution and human health by analyzing environmental media (stream sediments, water, soil and vegetation) together with human hair of resident population. In this context, the spatial correlation between the extremely compromised environmental conditions of developed areas and the incidence rate of liver cancer in the same area was also explored posing the need of a careful costs/benefits analysis to assess whether the deterioration of the environment, that could adversely affect the conditions of public health, is worth the economic development.     

基层环境监测站业务风险管理现状与对策

简述了基层环境监测业务风险管理现状及存在的问题,对业务风险管理的认识程度不高,业务风险管理的系统性不强,缺少环境监测业务风险管理指导性文件。提出,应树立正确的环境监测业务风险理念,建立环境监测业务风险管理组织机构,健全与监测工作紧密结合的业务风险管理体系,优先监控风险高的环境监测工作,大力培养风险管理人才。     

Selective reduction of NO by photo-SCR with ammonia in an annular fixed-film photoreactor

Gaseous NO was photocatalytically reduced at room temperature by photo-assisted selective catalytic reduction (photo-SCR) with ammonia over TiO₂ in this study. NO reduction efficiency and N₂ selectivity were determined from gases composition at the outlet stream of photoreactor. Effect of operating conditions, e.g. light intensity and inlet concentrations of ammonia and oxygen, on the NO reduction efficiency and N₂ selectivity were discussed to determine the feasible operating condition for photocatalytic reduction of NO. Experimental results showed that selective catalytic reduction of NO with ammonia over TiO₂ in the presence of oxygen was a spontaneous reaction in dark. The photoirradiation on the TiO₂ surface caused remarkable photocatalytic reduction of NO to form N₂, NO₂, and N₂O under 254 nm UV illuminations, while almost 90% of N₂ selectivity was achieved in this study. The ammonia and oxygen molecules played the roles of reductant and oxidant for NO reduction and active sites regeneration, respectively. The reduction of NO was found to be increased with the increase of inlet ammonia and oxygen concentrations until specific concentrations because of the limited active sites on the surface of TiO₂. The kinetic model proposed in this study can be used to reasonably describe the reaction mechanism of photo-SCR.     

Rapid assessment of air,water, and land pollution sources

A procedure is outlined to make a rapid across-the-board estimate of the quantities of air, water and land pollution in a given region or country. Such inventories, though not as detailed as one would eventually need, provide a first integrated view of the magnitude and quantity of pollution and can contribute to effective and comprehensive pollution control planning.This article is abstracted from Rapid Assessment of Air, Water and Land Pollution Sources, WHO Internal Document EFP/81.14, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 1981.