Community evacuation following a chlorine release, Mississippi

On 7th September 1986, four miles north of Collins, Mississippi, a train transporting chlorine derailed. Two cars ruptured and gas escaped. As a result, 100 families were evacuated. To study the evacuation process, we conducted person-to-person interviews with sixty-two families staying in the evacuation center. Only 52.5% of the families received their first directive to evacuate directly from police or other officials. Delays in evacuating tended to be shorter when people were warned by the police and were told the reason for evacuating. Lack of personal transportation and preexisting health problems resulted in delays in evacuation. Concerns about evacuation included fear of looting, lack of a place to go, lack of transportation, difficulty in moving with children and elderly persons, and the need to take care of pets. One third of the interviewees reported feeling panic. Community evacuation procedures would be improved if: (1) officials contact all households directly; (2) the warning message addresses people's concerns; and (3) transportation is provided.     

DESIGN OF AN INDEX OF WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the formulation of an Index of Water Quality to evaluate the level of pollution in fresh water. A Four-Round Delphi equation, using a panel of seven nationally recognized water scientists, was performed to ascertain the pollutants to be included in the index, the relationship between the quantity of these pollutants in the water and the resulting quality of the water, and the importance of each pollution variable to each water use as well as to overall pollution. A multiplicative index was used to bring the pollutants together into one system.     

A special adaptation to planktonic life in larvae of the Cassoidea (=Tonnoidea) (Gastropoda)

Living veligers of the Cassoidea have been observed to use a mantle appendage to form and resorb periostracum. Anatomical and histological examinations of a ranellid (Cymatium sp.) larva collected from the Red Sea in 1987 revealed the structure and location of the pallial appendage. The mantle edges of juvenile or adult species of the Cassoidea do not show a comparable specialization. It is demonstrated that cassoid larval conch characters are sufficient to prove the existence of a pallial appendage without anatomical confirmation. A mantle appendage is not known from teleplanic (long-living planktic) veligers of other gastropod superfamilies. In cases where the larval strategies of the latter are known they are totally different. Therefore it is suggested that the adaptation of cassoid larvae to pelagic life is unique among gastropods representing an autapomorphic character of the superfamily.     

Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

Simplicity versus efficiency in sampling designs and estimation

Simplicity and efficiency in design and estimation are all important in deciding on sampling strategies. A simple model is given and illustrated for four practical situations to show how a good sampling strategy should be selected.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

A first trimester trisomy 13/trisomy 18 risk algorithm combining fetal nuchal translucency thickness,maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A

This study examines 45 cases of trisomy 13 and 59 cases of trisomy 18 and reports an algorithm to identify pregnancies with a fetus affected by trisomy 13 or 18 by a combination of maternal age fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness, and maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A at 11–14 weeks of gestation. In this mixed trisomy group the median MoM NT was increased at 2.819, whilst the median MoMs for free β-hCG and PAPP-A were reduced at 0.375 and 0.201 respectively. We predict that with the use of the combined trisomy 13 and 18 algorithm and a risk cut-off of 1 in 150 will for a 0.3% false positive rate allow 95% of these chromosomal defects to be identified at 11–14 weeks. Such algorithms will enhance existing first trimester screening algorithms for trisomy 21. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Material suppliers and industrial metabolism

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is not sufficiently tailored to the analysis of strategic environmental problems of material suppliers. Sustainable development calls for a reduction by a factor of 10 to 20 in the material intensity of the economy, a situation which leads to dramatic shifts in markets for raw materials. Furthermore, a material supplier might have major improvement options in the material’s numerous downstream uses. LCAs, however, can’t cover these two aspects. An adapted form of Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) may be an answer. This approach defines a system in relation to the flow of a specific material through society. All environmental interventions related to the material are inventoried. An emission evaluation indicates the dominant environmental bottlenecks, given the current market volume of each application of the material. This helps to identify improvement options and strategic choices in market portfolios. Scenario analysis on potential measures can further indicate changes of material flows — and thus markets — in the system. The approach is illustrated with a case study on chlorine.     

A stress-strain model to evaluate the forest situation in Germany and the state of the art of damage research

The situation and the latest findings of forest damage research in Germany are discussed. A newly developed concept for this research is described. This concept allows to identify the drawbacks of the recent damage research concept but also the integration of results compiled up to now. The importance for including natural occurring stress factors such as climate, soil conditions or local situation of individual species is outlined.