Urban Flood Damage and Greenhouse Scenarios - The Implications for Policy: An Example from Australia

Urban flooding is often used as an illustration of the potentially adverse effects of greenhouse-induced climate change on extreme events. There is however, a paucity of studies that convert climate scenarios into changes in flood damage. This account summarises the use of modelling techniques, for three flood prone urban catchments in south eastern Australia, to assess changes to urban flood losses for the 'most wet' and 'most dry' scenarios for the year 2070. The most wet scenario indicates that annual average flood damage could increase within the range of 2.5 to 10 times, under the most dry scenario flood regimes would be similar to those experienced at present. The socio-economic scenarios based on the changes to flood losses are used to consider policy responses. It is unlikely that many local government authorities will respond because of lack of interest and because of major changes to the climate scenarios proposed over the last decade. Any response is likely to be incremental and accord with the 'no regrets' and the precautionary principle'.     

Use of the chemical cleavage of mismatch method for prenatal deficiency diagnosis of alpha-1-antitrypsin

The most common mutation in alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency, conversion of a G to an A at base 9989 (PI-Z), was detected with the chemical cleavage of mismatch method, demonstrating the power of the method for prenatal diagnosis. Exon V of the gene was amplified using the polymerase chain reaction and heteroduplexes were formed to test for the presence of the mutation. The predicted C mismatch was readily detectable with hydroxylamine, and by making the probe from the chorionic villus sample it was possible to determine that the fetus was heterozygous, not homozygous, for the mutation.     

The nature of the redshift and directly observed quasar statistics

The nature of the cosmic redshift is one of the most fundamental questions in modern science. Hubble's discovery of the apparent Expansion of the Universe is derived from observations on a small number of galaxies at very low redshifts. Today, quasar redshifts have a range more than 1000 times greater than those in Hubble's sample, and represent more than 100 times as many objects. A recent comprehensive compilation of published measurements provides the basis for a study indicating that quasar observations are not in good agreement with the original predictions of the Expanding Universe theory, but are well fit by the predictions of an alternative theory having fewer adjustable parameters.     

Persistently elevated AFP and AChE in amniotic fluid from a normal fetus following demise of its twin

Intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) in one of twins at 12 weeks of gestation was accompanied by markedly elevated maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at 17 and 18 weeks. Amniotic fluid AFP from the healthy surviving twin's sac at 18·5 and 23 weeks was also greatly increased along with a positive acetylcholinesterase (AChE) band. Persistently elevated AFP and positive AChE so long after fetal demise–-6·5 and 11 weeks post IUFD–-has not, to our knowledge, been previously described. In similar cases, high level ultrasound and careful placental examination at birth should be utilized to search for fetal abnormalities or multiple pregnancy with IUFD.     

The cerebro-hepato-renal (Zellweger) syndrome: Prenatal detection based on impaired biosynthesis of plasmalogens

Prenatal diagnosis of the cerebro-hepato-renal (Zellweger) syndrome has been performed in 10 pregnancies at risk by measuring both the activity of acyl CoA: dihydroxyacetonephosphate acyltransferase (DHAP-AT) and the de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis, either in cultured amniotic fluid cells or in fibroblasts cultured from a chorionic villus biopsy. In 7 of the pregnancies both tests indicated no abnormality. All 7 continued to term and normal infants were delivered. However, in amniotic fluid cells from 2 fetuses affected by Zellweger syndrome unequivocal differences from control values were found. The activity of DHAP-AT was clearly deficient and the de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis was impaired. In one pregnancy at risk prenatal diagnosis was performed during the first trimester by measuring both the DHAP-AT activity and the de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis in fibroblasts cultured from a chorionic villi biopsy. From the deficient DHAP-AT activity and the impaired de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis it was concluded that the fetus was affected. This was confirmed biochemically after induced abortion. It can be concluded that measurement of the DHAP-AT activity and the de novo plasmalogen biosynthesis provides convenient methods for the early prenatal detection of Zellweger syndrome.     

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