Uncertainty aspects in process safety analysis

Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined.     

Innovative design of an LDPE reactor bay against gas explosion using a risk-based approach coupled with high fidelity computer tools

High pressure tubular reactors for the production of Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) are, for safety reasons, enclosed in a protective bay open towards the sky. They are becoming longer and larger due to production capacity increases. TECHNIP has historically designed these reactor bays based on Licensor information, which include more or less empirical correlations. Further capacity developments require the design of these concrete enclosures to be challenged. With this in mind, the present study shows the interest of implementing an innovative methodology based upon a risk-based approach to define new design criteria for the enclosure walls. The method, which combines both risk analysis with computational fluid dynamics modelling (3D CFD) and non-linear finite element analysis (NLFEA) tools, allows a clear determination of the design overpressure loads applied on walls and offers an optimisation of the concrete wall thickness. The CFD study also leads to a better understanding of the ventilation and efficiency of safety systems (gas detection, depressurisation) with possibility for improvement of the hazardous area classification rating.     

Improving construction site safety through leader-based verbal safety communication

Background

The construction industry is one of the most injury-prone industries, in which production is usually prioritized over safety in daily on-site communication. Workers have an informal and oral culture of risk, in which safety is rarely openly expressed. This paper tests the effect of increasing leader-based on-site verbal safety communication on the level of safety and safety climate at construction sites. Method: A pre-post intervention-control design with five construction work gangs is carried out. Foremen in two intervention groups are coached and given bi-weekly feedback about their daily verbal safety communications with their workers. Foremen-worker verbal safety exchanges (experience sampling method, n = 1,693 interviews), construction site safety level (correct vs. incorrect, n = 22,077 single observations), and safety climate (seven dimensions, n = 105 questionnaires) are measured over a period of up to 42 weeks. Results: Baseline measurements in the two intervention and three control groups reveal that foremen speak with their workers several times a day. Workers perceive safety as part of their verbal communication with their foremen in only 6-16% of exchanges, and the levels of safety at the sites range from 70-87% (correct observations). Measurements from baseline to follow-up in the two intervention groups reveal that safety communication between foremen and workers increases significantly in one of the groups (factor 7.1 increase), and a significant yet smaller increase is found when the two intervention groups are combined (factor 4.6). Significant increases in the level of safety are seen in both intervention groups (7% and 12% increases, respectively), particularly in regards to 'access ways' and 'railings and coverings' (39% and 84% increases, respectively). Increases in safety climate are seen in only one of the intervention groups with respect to their 'attention to safety.' No significant trend changes are seen in the three control groups on any of the three measures. Conclusions: Coaching construction site foremen to include safety in their daily verbal exchanges with workers has a significantly positive and lasting effect on the level of safety, which is a proximal estimate for work-related accidents. It is recommended that future studies include coaching and feedback at all organizational levels and for all involved parties in the construction process. Building client regulations could assign the task of coaching to the client appointed safety coordinators or a manager/supervisor, and studies should measure longitudinal effects of coaching by following foremen and their work gangs from site to site.     

Anhydrous ethanol production by extractive distillation: A solvent case study

Production of anhydrous ethanol in large scale has been made by extractive distillation using conventional solvents like ethylene-glycol. In the present paper, extractive distillation process is studied to obtain pure ethanol using ethylene-glycol and tetraethylene-glycol as solvents. Residue curve maps are used to analyse the proposed distillation processes in interpreting mixture behaviours and feasibility of distillation columns. The industrial process is simulated at steady state from residue curve map analysis. Simulation results for the ethanol/water mixture using ethylene-glycol, the conventional solvent, and tetraethylene-glycol, an alternative solvent, are presented. These results showed that the process using tetraethylene-glycol is reliable, although it requires more energy than the process with ethylene-glycol. However, ethylene-glycol has a considerable toxicity level while tetraethylene-glycol is non-toxic.     

Oxidation of kerosene components in a soil matrix by a dielectric barrier discharge reactor

This paper discusses some aspects of the kerosene components oxidation in a soil matrix by a dielectric barrier discharge reactor at atmospheric pressure. The total kerosene components abatement can reaches 90% for an energy density of 960 J g_soil^?1. The analyses of the discharge cell outlet gas reveals that CO_x and hydrocarbon compounds selectivity is close to 10%. A semi-quantitative approach by GC-FID shows that the carbon content in the oxidized compounds in soil is about 20% of the carbon content in the initial kerosene components. The polar species formed in soil are a mixture of aliphatic and aromatic molecules containing alcohol and carboxylic acid groups. The process of kerosene oxidation in soil matrix is more promoted than kerosene desorption followed by an oxidation in gas phase.     

Regulation of hepatocyte proliferation

After partial hepatectomy the low proliferation rate of hepatocytes increases dramatically. This is based on a feed-back system whose central link is a liver cell proliferation hormon, the so-called hepatopoietin. The hormon originates from the Peyer's patches: after their resection, the liver cell proliferation after partial hepatectomy decreases by about 80%. Hepatopoietin effects organ specific but species nonspecific.