An approach for treating the uncertainties in the impact of climate change

Past accumulated data supported by the predictions of climate models suggest that our world is getting warmer. Scientists are trying to construct mathematical models of both climate and crop systems to identify what types of climate changes could constitute a significant risk or benefit for agriculture. However, due to the many uncertainties regarding these models, it is impossible to make unequivocal predictions. At present, almost all the research in this area is carried out without considering the uncertain nature of the problem. The approach outlined here attempts to find a way to deal with the above uncertainty problem. Artificial intelligence techniques are being developed with the aim of performing inferences based on uncertain information. In our method, causal graphs are used for explicit representation of the relationships between climatic factors and yield. Probabilities are used to express the uncertainties associated with these links, and Bayes' theorem is applied to deal with uncertainty reasonings. This approach has the additional advantage of allowing the prediction to be readily updated as results from improved climate and crop models become available. These opportunities are being evaluated initially by using the model for potato growth developed at the Scottish Crop Research Institute.     

Microbial kinetic analysis of three different types of EBNR process

The disadvantages of developed biological nutrient removal (BNR) processes (additional energy for liquid circulation and addition of external carbon substrate for denitrification in anoxic zones) were improved by reconfiguring the process into (1) an anaerobic zone followed by multiple stages of aerobic-anoxic zones (TNCU3 process) or (2) anaerobic, oxic, anoxic, oxic zones in sequence (TNCU2 process). These two pilot plants were operated at a recycling sludge ratio of 0.5 without internal recycle of nitrified supernatant. The sludge retention time was maintained at 10 d. The main objective of this study is to analyze the kinetics of different microorganisms in these two processes and A2O process by using the Activated Sludge Model No. 2d. The effective removal efficiency of carbon, total phosphorus and total nitrogen at 87-98%, 92-100% and 63-80%, respectively, were achieved in the testing runs. According to model simulations, the microbial kinetics in the TNCU3 and TNCU2 processes would be affected by different operations. When the step feeding strategy was adopted, the HRT was longer due to the less influent flowrate in the front stages and the microbes would grow in quantities by about 6% in the aerobic reactors. In the followed anoxic reactors, the microbes would decrease in quantities by about 12% due to the dilution effect. The dilution effects in TNCU3 and TNCU2 processes did not take place in A2O process because the recycling mixed liquid from the aerobic reactor to the anoxic reactor still contained particulate components. The XH, XPAO, and XAUT concentrations in the effluent of the last tank were lower when the step-feeding mode was adopted. The TNCU3 and TNCU2 processes could be operated efficiently without nitrified liquid circulation and addition of external carbon substrate for denitrification.     

An unconventional approach to studying the reaction kinetics of the Fenton's oxidation of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid

The Fenton's oxidation kinetics of herbicide 2,4-D at various [Fe(II)] and [H(2)O(2)] combinations was investigated and modelled through an unconventional approach. The reaction kinetics of 2,4-D degradation demonstrated a two-stage pattern of decay, where a very fast reactive stage was followed by a retardation stage due to the depletion of oxidants and to the competitive side-reactions of the intermediates (including 2,4-dichlorophenol, chlorohydroquinone and 2,6-dichlororesorcinol). A model characterized by two newly established constants, the initial decay rate and the maximum oxidative capacity, was proposed and proven capable of describing the two-stage process, which cannot easily be described by conventional first- or second-order kinetics approaches.     

Method development for determination of fluroxypyr in soil

Four methods were developed for the analysis of fluroxypyr in soil samples from oil palm plantations. The first method involved the extraction of the herbicide with 0.05 M NaOH in methanol followed by purification using acid base partition. The concentrated material was subjected to derivatization and then cleaning process using a florisil column and finally analyzed by gas chromatography (GC) equipped with electron capture detector (ECD). By this method, the recovery of fluroxypyr from the spiked soil ranged from 70 to 104% with the minimum detection limit at 5 microg/kg. The second method involved solid liquid extraction of fluroxypyr using a horizontal shaker followed by quantification using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) equipped with UV detector. The recovery of fluroxypyr using this method, ranged from 80 to 120% when the soil was spiked with fluroxypyr at 0.1-0.2 microg/g soil. In the third method, the recovery of fluroxypyr was determined by solid liquid extraction using an ultrasonic bath. The recovery of fluroxypyr at spiking levels of 4-50 microg/L ranged from 88 to 98% with relative standard deviations of 3.0-5.8% with a minimum detection limit of 4 microg/kg. In the fourth method, fluroxypyr was extracted using the solid liquid extraction method followed by the cleaning up step with OASIS HLB (polyvinyl dibenzene). The recovery of fluroxypyr was between 91 and 95% with relative standard deviations of 4.2-6.2%, respectively. The limit of detection in method 4 was further improved to 1 pg/kg. When the weight of soil used was increased 4 fold, the recovery of fluroxypyr at spiking level of 1-50 microg/kg ranged from 82-107% with relative standard deviations of 0.5-4.7%.     

Atmospheric dry deposition fluxes of trace elements measured in Bursa, Turkey

Trace element dry deposition fluxes were measured using a smooth, greased, knife-edge surrogate surface (KSS) holding greased Mylar strips in Bursa, Turkey. Sampling program was conducted between October 2002 and June 2003 and 46 dry deposition samples were collected. The average fluxes of crustal metals (Mg, Ca, and Fe) were one to four orders of magnitude higher than the fluxes of anthropogenic metals. Trace element fluxes ranged from 3 (Cd) to 24,230 (Ca) microg m(-2) d(-1). The average trace element dry deposition fluxes measured in this study were similar to those measured in other urban areas. In addition, ambient air samples were also collected simultaneously with flux samples and concentrations of trace elements, collected with a TSP sampler, were between 0.7 and 4900 ng m(-3) for Cd and Ca, respectively. The overall trace element dry deposition velocities, calculated by dividing the fluxes to the particle phase concentrations ranged from 2.3+/-1.7 cm s(-1) (Pb) to 11.1+/-6.4 cm s(-1) (Ni). These values are in good agreement with the values calculated using similar techniques. The anthropogenic and crustal contributions were estimated by employing enrichment factors (EFs) calculated relative to the average crustal composition. Low EFs for dry deposition samples were calculated. This is probably due to contamination of local dust and its important contribution to the collected samples.     

Speciation of arsenic and chromium metal ions by reversed phase high performance liquid chromatography

The speciation of arsenic [As(III) and As(V)] and chromium [Cr(III) and Cr(VI)] was carried out by high performance liquid chromatography. The column used was Econosil C18 (250 x 4.6 mm i.d., particle size 10 microm). The mobile phases consisted of water-acetonitrile (80:20, v/v) for arsenic and 10 mM ammonium acetate buffer (6.0 pH)-acetonitrile (10:90, v/v) for chromium speciation separately and respectively. The detection was carried out by UV-Vis at 410 nm and atomic absorption spectrometer (AAS) respectively and separately. The values of alpha and Rs of As(III) and As(V) species were 1.4 and 1.5 respectively while the values of alpha and Rs for Cr(III) and Cr(VI) were 1.35 and 0.2 respectively. The effect of the acetonitrile percentages was also carried out on the speciation of arsenic only. The relative standard deviation and limit of detection were in the range of 0.01-0.02 and 0.4-1.0 microg/ml respectively.     

Enhancement of photocatalytic oxidation of humic acid in TiO2 suspensions by increasing cation strength

This study aimed at improving the photocatalytic (PC) oxidation of humic acids (HA) in TiO2 suspensions by adding cationic ion such as calcium or magnesium. A set of tests was first conducted in the dark to study the adsorption of HA onto TiO2 in suspensions at different pH and calcium concentrations. The experiment demonstrated that the adsorption of HA onto the TiO2 particles was either pH-dependent or calcium strength-dependent due to electrostatic interaction and calcium ion bridging. The photodegradation of HA in the presence of UV irradiation was investigated as a function of pH and the concentration of calcium and magnesium ions. The results showed that the adsorption behavior between HA and TiO2 played a very important role during the PC oxidation process. The PC oxidation could be enhanced at neutral pH by increasing the cation strength. The kinetics of HA PC degradation in TiO2 suspensions with different initial concentrations was also studied using the Langmuir-Hinshelwood model.     

A mechanism for mercury oxidation in coat-derived exhausts

This paper evaluates an elementary reaction mechanism for Hg0 oxidation in coal-derived exhausts consisting of a previously formulated homogeneous mechanism with 102 steps and a new three-step heterogeneous mechanism for unburned carbon (UBC) particles. Model predictions were evaluated with the extents of Hg oxidation monitored in the exhausts from a pilot-scale coal flame fired with five different coals. Exhaust conditions in the tests were very similar to those in full-scale systems. The predictions were quantitatively consistent with the reported coal-quality impacts over the full range of residence times. The role of Cl atoms in the homogeneous mechanism is hereby supplanted with carbon sites that have been chlorinated by HCl. The large storage capacity of carbon for Cl provided a source of Cl for Hg oxidation over a broad temperature range, so initiation was not problematic. Super-equilibrium levels of Cl atoms were not required, so Hg was predicted to oxidize in systems with realistic quench rates. Whereas many fundamental aspects of the heterogeneous chemistry remain uncertain, the information needed to characterize Hg oxidation in coal-derived exhausts is now evident: complete gas compositions (CO, hydrocarbons, H2O, O2 NOx, SOx), UBC properties (size, total surface area), and the ash partitioning throughout the exhaust system are required.     

A reevaluation of carbon monoxide: past trends,future concentrations,and implications for conformity "hot-spot" policies

Control of CO is one of the great air-quality management success stories of the past 20 years. This paper evaluates whether past progress will continue into the future and whether changes in microscale CO concentrations are comparable to reductions observed at the regional scale. Neighborhood and microscale CO concentrations were evaluated at six northern and southern California monitoring sites. The study also included a review of CO emission, concentration, and exposure trends and on-road motor vehicle-based CO emission control programs for California and the United States. Consistent with California and national trends, CO concentrations declined at each of the six study locations from 1988 through 1998. Microscale concentrations declined at the same rate as did neighborhood-scale concentrations. Rollback analyses demonstrated that microscale concentrations will continue to decline through at least 2010-2020. Within a few years, microscale violations of the CO National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) will be unlikely in California except under extraordinary circumstances.     

Comparative studies of the Fe3+/2+-UV, H2O2-UV, TiO2-UV/vis systems for the decolorization of a textile dye X-3B in water

The degradation of a common textile dye, Reactive-brilliant red X-3B, by several advanced oxidation technologies was studied in an air-saturated aqueous solution. The dye was resistant to the UV illumination (wavelength λ  320 nm), but was decolorized when one of Fe³⁺, H₂O₂ and TiO₂ components was present. The decolorization rate was observed to be quite different for each system, and the relative order evaluated under comparable conditions followed the order of Fe²⁺–H₂O₂–UV  Fe²⁺–H₂O₂ > Fe³⁺–H₂O₂–UV > Fe³⁺–H₂O₂ > Fe³⁺–TiO₂–UV > TiO₂–UV > Fe³⁺–UV > TiO₂–visible light (λ  450 nm) > H₂O₂–UV > Fe²⁺–UV. The mechanism for each process is discussed, and linked together for understanding the observed differences in reactivity.