Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.     

RESEARCH: Triage Law Enforcement: Societal Impacts on National Forests in the West

/ Uses of outdoor natural areas, like National Forests in the United States, have been undergoing change. Some changes, including criminal activities and domestic terrorism, may have quite important impacts to outdoor enthusiasts and managers. Activities include some relatively traditional management challenges, like arson and thefts, and newer challenges, such as domestic violence and murder. To better understand the prevalence and impacts of these activities, selected managers in the western United States were interviewed in summer and fall 1998. Results indicate criminal activities and domestic terrorism are found in both urban-interface and rural sites. The most prevalent challenges were arson, criminal damage, domestic violence, dumping of household trash and landscape materials, marijuana cultivation, satanic cult activity, and thefts. Not as prevalent but found in almost all study sites were body dumping, extremist group activity, gang activity, murders, and suicides. Managers felt that most outdoor recreationists were unaffected by the activities. Most managers noted the increasing prevalence and the costs to management in time, personnel, and in other ways. They noted that their job had ceased being one of natural resources law enforcement and became one of "city" law enforcement. The findings of the study raise serious issues that require additional research.