Implications of indicator aggregation methods for global change vulnerability reduction efforts

Composite indices are used to assess and prioritize mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing the impacts of global environmental change. We evaluate different aggregation tools for creating these indices and their potential effects on mitigation and adaptation efforts. We assess the association of each aggregation tool with different types of trade-offs, risk strategies, and the resulting spatial and statistical distribution of their composite scores. Four aggregation tools are investigated (Weighted Linear Combination, WLC; Ordered Weighted Average, OWA; Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA; Compromise Programming, CP) using an example of vulnerability to flooding in the eastern United States. The choice of aggregation tool affects vulnerability outcomes, decision risk strategies, and the prioritization of vulnerability reduction strategies. DEA produces the highest vulnerability scores, representing a risk averse strategy associated with pessimistic outcomes. WLC implies a neutral and fixed risk strategy. CP produces a range of outcomes from neutral (equivalent to the WLC) to pessimistic, depending on its parameters. OWA offers the highest flexibility to adjust the levels of trade-off and risk strategy, producing a range of vulnerability outcomes, from optimistic to pessimistic. The units of analysis, when prioritized across the different aggregation tools, are more consistent for the top ranked units. However, the differences in rank become substantial as the selection threshold score decreases. To obtain better informed vulnerability reduction strategies, we recommend to (i) address how trade-off and decision risk are embedded in the aggregation tool chosen, and (ii) evaluate their effect in the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation strategies being considered.     

Fractionation of heavy metals and assessment of contamination of the sediments of Lake Titicaca

Chemical weathering is one of the major geochemical processes that control the mobilization of heavy metals. The present study provides the first report on heavy metal fractionation in sediments (8–156 m) of Lake Titicaca (3,820 m a.s.l.), which is shared by the Republic of Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia. Both contents of total Cu, Fe, Ni, Co, Mn, Cd, Pb, and Zn and also the fractionation of these heavy metals associated with four different fractions have been determined following the BCR scheme. The principal component analysis suggests that Co, Ni, and Cd can be attributed to natural sources related to the mineralized geological formations. Moreover, the sources of Cu, Fe, and Mn are effluents and wastes generated from mining activities, while Pb and Zn also suggest that their common source is associated to mining activities. According to the Risk Assessment Code, there is a moderate to high risk related to Zn, Pb, Cd, Mn, Co, and Ni mobilization and/or remobilization from the bottom sediment to the water column. Furthermore, the Geoaccumulation Index and the Enrichment Factor reveal that Zn, Pb, and Cd are enriched in the sediments. The results suggest that the effluents from various traditional mining waste sites in both countries are the main source of heavy metal contamination in the sediments of Lake Titicaca.     

Trace Metal Concentration in Roadside Surface Soil and Tree Back: A Measurement of Local Atmospheric Pollution in Abuja, Nigeria

Cadmium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc concentrations were analysed by atomic absorption spectrophotometry in surface soil and tree bark from different districts of Abuja, Nigeria, in order to determine the atmospheric trace metal input in the area.Elevated concentrations of some of the studied metals were observed in the soil and tree bark samples from the commercial/high traffic areas of the city compared to backgroundvalues. In soil samples, the average concentration of the metals were 0.6±0.4, 18.0±4.0, 281±39, 16±4 and66±23 g g^-1 dry weight for Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni and Zn, respectively, whilst the average concentrations in tree bark were 0.3±0.2, 12±4, 133±32, 13±3 and 61±10 g g^-1 dry weight for Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni and Zn, respectively. The trend in trace metal levels suggested that automobile emissions are a major source of these metals as the highest concentrations of Pb and Zn were recorded in the commercial areas of the city known for their high traffic densities. The levels of metal in the study area were relativelylow compared to levels found in some larger and older cities in various countries worldwide.     

Learning from Tabasco’s floods by applying MORT

Natural disasters are increasing alarmingly worldwide in recent years. They have killed millions of people, and adversely affected the life of at least one billion people. Given this, natural disasters present a great challenge to society today concerning how they are to be mitigated so as to produce an acceptable risk is a question which has come to the fore in dramatic ways recently. In 2007, the state of Tabasco, Mexico, was flooded and it is believed that al least one million people were left homeless. The paper addresses the following question: what can be learnt from flood disasters? The paper presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the Tabasco’s flooding by applying the Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT). The MORT technique may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex ‘fault-tree’ model that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization’s management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident. One of the key conclusions of the present analysis is that the approach to decision making in relation ‘flood management’ at the time of the disaster has not been based explicitly on ‘flood risk assessment’. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that the impact of natural disasters such as the Tabasco’s flooding can be mitigated in the future.     

Predator cues and an herbicide affect activity and emigration in an agrobiont wolf spider

Animals use chemical cues for signaling between species. However, anthropogenic chemicals might interrupt this natural chemical information flow, with potential impacts on predator-prey interactions. Our goal was to explore how Buccaneer® Plus, a common herbicide similar to Round-up® (active ingredient glyphosate), affected the interactions between intraguild predators. The wolf spider Pardosa milvina (Hentz, 1844) is numerically dominant in agricultural systems across the eastern United States, and often falls prey to or competes with the larger wolf spider, Hogna helluo (Walckenaer, 1837) and/or the carabid beetle, Scarites quadriceps (Chaudoir, 1843). We tested the effects of chemical cues from these intraguild predators and exposure to herbicide on the activity, emigration, and survival of P. milvina using a full-factorial laboratory experiment. Both predator cues and herbicide led to a decrease in movement by P. milvina. However, although H. helluo cues alone decreased movement, S. quadriceps cues only decreased movement when combined with herbicide. These results indicate that predation risk and herbicide application likely interact in complex ways to affect the movement of a major arthropod predator in agricultural systems, and thus may have complex effects on the food web.     

Percentile estimation using variable censored data

Much progress has been made in recent years to address the estimation of summary statistics, using data that are subject to censoring of results that fall below the limit of detection (LOD) for the measuring instrument. Truncated data methods (e.g., Tobit regression) and multiple-imputation are two approaches for analyzing data results that are below the LOD. To apply these methods requires an assumption about the underlying distribution of the data. Because the log-normal distribution has been shown to fit many data sets obtained from environmental measurements, the common practice is to assume that measurements of environmental factors can be described by log-normal distributions. This article describes methods for obtaining estimates of percentiles and their associated confidence intervals when the results are log-normal and a fraction of the results are below the LOD. We present limited simulations to demonstrate the bias of the proposed estimates and the coverage probability of their associated confidence intervals. Estimation methods are used to generate summary statistics for 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro dibenzo-p-dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD) using data from a 2001 background exposure study in which PCDDs/PCDFs/cPCBs in human blood serum were measured in a Louisiana population. Because the congener measurements used in this study were subject to variable LODs, we also present simulation results to demonstrate the effect of variable LODs on the multiple-imputation process.     

Risk assessment of trace elements in the stomach contents of Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphins and Finless Porpoises in Hong Kong waters

The potential health risks due to inorganic substances, mainly metals, was evaluated for the two resident marine mammals in Hong Kong, the Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphin (Sousa chinensis) and the Finless Porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides). The stomachs from the carcasses of twelve stranded dolphins and fifteen stranded porpoises were collected and the contents examined. Concentrations of thirteen trace elements (Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Se, V and Zn) were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). An assessment of risks of adverse effects was undertaken using two toxicity guideline values, namely the Reference Dose (RfD), commonly used in human health risk assessment, and the Toxicity Reference Value (TRV), based on terrestrial mammal data. The levels of trace metals in stomach contents of dolphins and porpoises were found to be similar. Risk quotients (RQ) calculated for the trace elements showed that risks to the dolphins and porpoises were generally low and within safe limits using the values based on the TRV, which are less conservative than those based on the RfD values. Using the RfD-based values the risks associated with arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, nickel and mercury were comparatively higher. The highest RQ was associated with arsenic, however, most of the arsenic in marine organisms should be in the non-toxic organic form, and thus the calculated risk is likely to be overestimated.     

Assessment of the aquatic biodiversity of a threatened coastal lagoon at Bimini, Bahamas

Coastal biodiversity is threatened worldwide by both direct and indirect anthropogenic activities. To more effectively manage and protect coastal biodiversity, accurate assessments of genetic, species, and ecosystem level diversity are required. We present the results from an assessment of the aquatic species diversity of a small (3?km²), shallow, mangrove-fringed Bahamian lagoon (the North Sound) subject to ongoing anthropogenic development. The assessment was conducted through a collation of field observations and data in published literature. We found that eight angiosperm species, 30 macroalgal species, and 370 animal species (including 95 fishes, 69 arthropods, 56 birds, and 45 mollusks) were documented within the lagoon. At least 11 of these species are of conservation concern, such as the critically endangered smalltooth sawfish (Pristis pectinata) and hawksbill turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata). Comparisons of community similarity indicated that the North Sound has a relatively distinct fauna and flora, but available data suggest that the species found there are most similar to those found in nearby habitats in Cuba. The lagoon forms a key nursery habitat for many species, including lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris), Caribbean spiny lobsters (Panulirus argus), and queen conch (Strombas gigas). Recently, the lagoon was included as part of a new marine protected area (MPA), but much of the habitat has already experienced considerable anthropogenic disturbance and the MPA boundaries have yet to be established. We have therefore analyzed the lagoon biodiversity and expect the data presented here to serve as a baseline for future comparisons.     

A Comparative Study on the Archives of Xanthine Oxidase and Aldehyde Oxidase in Different Fish Species from Two Rivers in the Western Niger-Delta

Glycaemia, a classical indicator of stress, xanthine oxidase and aldehyde oxidase which are involved in phase I detoxication were investigated in two different fish species from two rivers with different pollution levels in the Western Niger-Delta. Four sampling zones covering the entire lengths of Warri and Ethiope Rivers respectively were used in this study. For each species of fish five were obtained from a sampling zone in a river. Blood glucose was significantly higher (P < 0.001) in M. electricus from Warri River (82.13 +/- 5.50 mg cm(-3)) compared to the same species from Ethiope River (36.47 +/- 1.49 mg cm(-3)). With the same parameter a similar profile was observed for C. gariepinus; Warri River (56.92 +/- 10.31 mg cm(-3)); Ethiope River (37.65 +/- 0.90 mg cm(-3)) which was also significant (P < 0.01). The activity of xanthine oxidase in M. electricus from Warri River (255.80 +/- 41 it mol cm(-3)) was significantly higher (P < 0.001) compared to the value obtained for the same species (108 +/- 22.36 micro mol cm(-3)) from Ethiope River. Also the activity of xanthine oxidase in C. gariepinus from Warri River (197 +/- 34.65 micro mol cm(-3)) was significantly higher (P < 0.001) when matched with the value obtained for the same species (78.40 +/- 26.84 micro mol cm(-3)) from Ethiope River. That blood glucose level was related to xanthine oxidase activity in the two fish species from Warri River was supported by the high positive correlation between these two parameters (M. electricus. r = 1: C. gariepinus, r = 0.71). The activity of aldehyde oxidase in C. gariepinus from Warri River (143.80 +/- 28.45 micro mol cm(-3)) was significantly higher (P < 0.001) compared to the value obtained for the same species (61.20 +/- 15.21 micro mol cm(-3)) from Ethiope River. A similar profile in aldehyde oxidase activity observed for M. electricus; Warri River (130 +/- 28.39 micro mol cm(-3)); Ethiope River (89 +/- 19.70 micro mol cm(-3)) but an inferior statistical variation (P < 0.05) was obtained. The results obtained in this study indicate that the level of xanthine oxidase in M. electricus is a more specific marker and to a lesser extent its activity in C. gariepinus in monitoring environmental stress due to pollution.