Plant-trait-based modeling assessment of ecosystem-service sensitivity to land-use change

Evidence is accumulating that the continued provision of essential ecosystem services is vulnerable to land-use change. Yet, we lack a strong scientific basis for this vulnerability as the processes that drive ecosystem-service delivery often remain unclear. In this paper, we use plant traits to assess ecosystem-service sensitivity to land-use change in subalpine grasslands. We use a trait-based plant classification (plant functional types, PFTs) in a landscape modeling platform to model community dynamics under contrasting but internally consistent land-use change scenarios. We then use predictive models of relevant ecosystem attributes, based on quantitative plant traits, to make projections of ecosystem-service delivery. We show that plant traits and PFTs are effective predictors of relevant ecosystem attributes for a range of ecosystem services including provisioning (fodder), cultural (land stewardship), regulating (landslide and avalanche risk), and supporting services (plant diversity). By analyzing the relative effects of the physical environment and land use on relevant ecosystem attributes, we also show that these ecosystem services are most sensitive to changes in grassland management, supporting current agri-environmental policies aimed at maintaining mowing of subalpine grasslands in Europe.     

Wind velocity prediction through complex kriging: formalism and computational aspects

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - The formalism of complex random fields is suitable for describing, in a compact and unified way, vectorial data sets in two dimensions, such as wind...     

Ecological differences and coexistence in a guild of microparasites: Bartonella in wild rodents

The study of ecological differences among coexisting microparasites has been largely neglected, but it addresses important and unusual issues because there is no clear distinction in such cases between conventional (resource) and apparent competition. Here patterns in the population dynamics are examined for four species of Bartonella (bacterial parasites) coexisting in two wild rodent hosts, bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus). Using generalized linear modeling and mixed effects models, we examine, for these four species, seasonal patterns and dependencies on host density (both direct and delayed) and, having accounted for these, any differences in prevalence between the two hosts. Whereas previous studies had failed to uncover species differences, here all four were different. Two, B. doshiae and B. taylorii, were more prevalent in wood mice, and one, B. birtlesii, was more prevalent in bank voles. B. birtlesii, B. grahamii, and B. taylorii peaked in prevalence in the fall, whereas B. doshiae peaked in spring. For B. birtlesii in bank voles, density dependence was direct, but for B. taylorii in wood mice density dependence was delayed. B. birtlesii prevalence in wood mice was related to bank vole density. The implications of these differences for species coexistence are discussed.     

Acid–base regulation in the Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister)

Homeostatic regulation allows organisms to secure basic physiological processes in a varying environment. To counteract fluctuations in ambient carbonate system speciation due to elevated seawater pCO₂ (hypercapnia), many aquatic crustaceans excrete/accumulate acid–base equivalents through their gills; however, not much is known about the role of ammonia in this response. The present study investigated the effects of hypercapnia on acid–base and ammonia regulation in the Dungeness crab, Metacarcinus magister on the whole animal and isolated gill levels. Hemolymph pCO₂ and [HCO₃ ^?] increased in M. magister acclimated to elevated pCO₂ (330 Pa), while pH remained stable. Additionally, hemolymph [Na⁺], [Ca²⁺], and [SO₄ ^2?] were significantly increased. When challenged with varying pH during gill perfusion, the pH of the artificial hemolymph remained relatively unchanged. Overall, ammonia production and excretion, as well as oxygen consumption, were reduced in crabs acclimated to elevated pCO₂, demonstrating that either (amino acid) oxidation is reduced in response to this particular stress, or nitrogenous wastes are excreted in an alternative form.     

Estimating the safety performance of urban intersections in Lisbon,Portugal

According to official statistics, a large percentage of crashes in Portugal are reported on urban roads. For instance, from 2004 to 2007, about 70% of all injury accidents and 43% of the fatalities occurred inside urban agglomerations. This important safety problem has also been observed on the urban network of Lisbon. Understanding this significant problem, the Government of the Portuguese Republic via its research grant agency – The Foundation for Science and Technology – funded a project whose primary objective consists of developing tools that would help estimating the safety performance of various components of the urban highway system in Lisbon. This paper documents one component of the safety tools that were developed and describes the steps that were taken to develop predictive models for estimating the safety performance of signalized and unsignalized intersections of Lisbon. Several crash predictive models were developed using the Poisson-gamma modeling framework. Two types of models were estimated: flow-only and models with covariates. They were estimated using crash and other related data collected at 44 three-legged and 50 four-legged intersections for the years 2004–2007, inclusively. It was found that some highway geometric design characteristics were associated with the crashes occurring at urban three- and four-legged intersections in Lisbon.