Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study's inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.     

Increasing trend of primary NO2 exhaust emission fraction in Hong Kong

Despite the successful reduction in roadside NO( x ) levels, no such decrease has been detected in roadside NO(2) concentration in Hong Kong. One underlying cause could be the rising primary NO(2) fraction of the total emission of NO( x ). Primary NO(2) can be particularly detrimental to Hong Kong because a large fraction of the population are exposed to the traffic-related primary pollutants in the street canyons formed by congested high-rise buildings. In this study, hourly mean concentration data for roadside nitrogen oxides (NO( x )), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and background ozone (O(3)) were used to estimate the mean primary NO(2) fraction from vehicle exhausts in Hong Kong. An overall increasing trend was observed for the primary NO(2) fraction (f-NO(2)) values in all the three roadside air monitoring sites. The primary NO(2) as a fraction of total NO( x ) (f-NO(2)) increased approximately from 2% in 1998 to 13% in 2008 in Hong Kong. The two particular periods of rising f-NO(2) coincided with the two implementation periods of the diesel retrofit programs for the light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles. Future vehicle emission control strategies should target not only total NO( x ) but also primary NO(2). Health benefit or disease burden estimates should be taken into account and updated in the process of policy planning and evaluation.     

Status and future of the forest health indicators program of the USA

For two decades, the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, has been charged with implementing a nationwide field-based forest health monitoring effort. Given its extensive nature, the monitoring program has been gradually implemented across forest health indicators and inventoried states. Currently, the Forest Service??s Forest Inventory and Analysis program has initiated forest health inventories in all states, and most forest health indicators are being documented in terms of sampling protocols, data management structures, and estimation procedures. Field data from most sample years and indicators are available on-line with numerous analytical examples published both internally and externally. This investment in national forest health monitoring has begun to yield dividends by allowing evaluation of state/regional forest health issues (e.g., pollution and invasive pests) and contributing substantially to national/international reporting efforts (e.g., National Report on Sustainability and US EPA Annual Greenhouse Gas Estimates). With the emerging threat of climate change, full national implementation and remeasurement of a forest health inventory should allow for more robust assessment of forest communities that are undergoing unprecedented changes, aiding future land management and policy decisions.     

Sources and fate of Salmonella and fecal indicator bacteria in an urban creek

This research aimed to understand the sources and fate of Salmonella and fecal bacteria in urban surface waters. An urban creek (San Pedro Creek, California, USA) that had unusually high levels of Salmonella and fecal bacteria relative to other nearby waterbodies was chosen as a model field site. State of the art microbiological methods were used in concert with modeling to investigate Salmonella and fecal bacteria sources, and determine field-relevant dark inactivation and photoinactivation rates. Three along-creek surveys that spanned reaches adjacent to both urban and forested land covers were conducted to measure Salmonella, enterococci, Escherichia coli, and horse- and human-specific Bacteroidales. Salmonella were detected adjacent to and downstream of urban land cover, but not adjacent to forested land cover. No human or horse-specific Bacteroidales fecal markers were detected implicating other urban animal sources of bacteria. Two locations along the creek where Salmonella was consistently detected were sampled hourly for 25 hours and a mass-balance model was applied to determine field-relevant light and dark inactivation rates for Salmonella, enterococci, and E. coli. Sunlight inactivation did not appear to be important in modulating concentrations of Salmonella, but was important in modulating both enterococci and E. coli concentrations. Dark inactivation was important for all three organisms. This is the first study to quantitatively examine the fate of Salmonella within an urban surface water. Although the work is carried out at a single site, the methodologies are extendable to source tracking in other waterbodies. Additionally, the rate constants determined through the modeling will be useful for modeling these organisms in other surface waters, and represent useful benchmarks for comparison to laboratory-derived inactivation rates.     

A cross-country comparison of pregnant women's decision-making and perspectives when opting for non-invasive prenatal testing in the Netherlands and Belgium

Background

The Netherlands and Belgium have been among the first countries to offer non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) as a first-tier screening test. Despite similarities, differences exist in counseling modalities and test uptake. This study explored decision-making and perspectives of pregnant women who opted for NIPT in both countries.

Methods

A questionnaire study was performed among pregnant women in the Netherlands (NL) (n = 587) and Belgium (BE) (n = 444) opting for NIPT, including measures on informed choice, personal and societal perspectives on trisomy 21, 18 and 13 and pregnancy termination.

Results

Differences between Dutch and Belgian women were shown in the level of informed choice (NL: 83% vs. BE: 59%, p < 0.001), intention to terminate the pregnancy in case of confirmed trisomy 21 (NL: 51% vs. BE: 62%, p = 0.003) and trisomy 13/18 (NL: 80% vs. BE: 73%, p = 0.020). More Belgian women considered trisomy 21 a severe condition (NL: 64% vs. BE: 81%, p < 0.001). Belgian women more frequently indicated that they believed parents are judged for having a child with trisomy 21 (BE: 42% vs. NL: 16%, p < 0.001) and were less positive about quality of care and support for children with trisomy 21 (BE: 23% vs. NL: 62%, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Differences in women's decision-making regarding NIPT and the conditions screened for may be influenced by counseling aspects and country-specific societal and cultural contexts.     

Lumbar Bone Mineral Density Phantomless Computed Tomography Measurements and Correlation with Age and Fracture Incidence

Objective: Low bone quality is a contributing factor to motor vehicle crash (MVC) injury. Quantification of occupant bone mineral density (BMD) is important from an injury causation standpoint. The first aim of this study was to validate a technique for measuring lumbar volumetric BMD (vBMD) from phantomless computed tomography (CT) scans. The second aim was to apply the validated phantomless technique to quantify lumbar vBMD in Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) occupants for correlation with age, fracture incidence, and osteopenia/osteoporosis diagnoses.

Methods: Quantitative CT (qCT) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) were collected prospectively for 50 subjects and used to validate a technique to measure vBMD from 281 phantomless CT scans of CIREN occupants. Hounsfield unit (HU) measurements were collected from the L1–L5 vertebrae, right psoas major muscle, and anterior subcutaneous fat for all subjects and from 3 phantom ports with known mg/cc calcium hydroxyapatite values for the validation group. qCT calibration was accomplished using regressions between the phantom HU and mg/cc values to convert L1–L5 HU values to mg/cc. A phantomless calibration technique was developed where the fat and muscle HU values were linearly regressed against fat (?69 mg/cc) and muscle (77 mg/cc) to establish a conversion for L1–L5 HU measurements to mg/cc. vBMD calculated from qCT versus the phantomless method was compared for the 50 subjects to assess agreement and a mg/cc osteopenia threshold was established using DXA T-scores. CIREN HU measurements were converted to mg/cc using the phantomless technique and the mg/cc osteopenia threshold was used to compare vBMD to age, fracture incidence, and osteopenia comorbidity classifications in CIREN.

Results: Linear regression of lumbar vBMD derived from the qCT versus phantomless calibrations showed excellent agreement (R² = 0.87, P <.0001). A 145 mg/cc threshold for osteopenia was established (sensitivity = 1, specificity = 0.57) and 44 CIREN occupants had vBMD below this threshold. Of these 44 occupants, 64% were not classified as osteopenic in CIREN, but vBMD suggested undiagnosed osteopenia. Age was negatively correlated with vBMD in both sexes (P <.0001) and CIREN occupants with less than 145 mg/cc vBMD sustained an average 1.7 additional rib/sternum fractures (P =.036).

Conclusions: Because lumbar vBMD was estimated from phantomless CT scans with accuracy similar to qCT, the phantomless technique can be broadly applied to both prospectively and retrospectively assess patient bone quality for research and clinical studies related to MVCs, falls, and aging.     

Collaborative Implementation for Ecological Restoration on US Public Lands: Implications for Legal Context,Accountability, and Adaptive Management

The Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP), established in 2009, encourages collaborative landscape scale ecosystem restoration efforts on United States Forest Service (USFS) lands. Although the USFS employees have experience engaging in collaborative planning, CFLRP requires collaboration in implementation, a domain where little prior experience can be drawn on for guidance. The purpose of this research is to identify the ways in which CFLRP’s collaborative participants and agency personnel conceptualize how stakeholders can contribute to implementation on landscape scale restoration projects, and to build theory on dynamics of collaborative implementation in environmental management. This research uses a grounded theory methodology to explore collaborative implementation from the perspectives and experiences of participants in landscapes selected as part of the CFLRP in 2010. Interviewees characterized collaborative implementation as encompassing three different types of activities: prioritization, enhancing treatments, and multiparty monitoring. The paper describes examples of activities in each of these categories and then identifies ways in which collaborative implementation in the context of CFLRP (1) is both hindered and enabled by overlapping legal mandates about agency collaboration, (2) creates opportunities for expanded accountability through informal and relational means, and, (3) creates feedback loops at multiple temporal and spatial scales through which monitoring information, prioritization, and implementation actions shape restoration work both within and across projects throughout the landscape creating more robust opportunities for adaptive management.     

Meeting the climate change challenge: a scan of greenhouse gas emissions in BC communities

The Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) is taking significant steps towards climate change mitigation, including a carbon tax on fossil fuels and legislation that mandates greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions within public sector organisations and GHG reduction targets for municipalities. This paper carries out a preliminary scan of the GHG emissions of BC communities using the provincially mandated Community Energy and Emissions Inventory reports. We map trends in energy consumption and emissions per capita while uncovering correlations between these variables and land-use planning, geographic, and demographic variables. These data have shown that: (1) energy consumption in BC is an adequate proxy for GHG emissions; (2) transportation, more than buildings, is a strong driver of overall GHG emissions; (3) building emissions are not likely to be strongly influenced by dwelling type, but density of buildings is crucial; (4) geographic location influences emissions; and (5) population size and age do not appear to influence per capita emissions. These findings are particularly important as they suggest that the potentially intransigent factors of income and population size need not be barriers to achieving significant GHG reductions. The policy onus thus falls squarely on transportation planning, land-use, energy conservation, and fuel switching. This in turn highlights the importance of deeper underlying sociocultural and political preferences, which shape the behaviours that have a strong bearing on emissions profiles.