Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram: An innovative approach

A bow-tie diagram combines a fault tree and an event tree to represent the risk control parameters on a common platform for mitigating an accident. Quantitative analysis of a bow-tie is still a major challenge since it follows the traditional assumptions of fault and event tree analyses. The assumptions consider the crisp probabilities and “independent” relationships for the input events. The crisp probabilities for the input events are often missing or hard to come by, which introduces data uncertainty. The assumption of “independence” introduces model uncertainty. Elicitation of expert's knowledge for the missing data may provide an alternative; however, such knowledge incorporates uncertainties and may undermine the credibility of risk analysis.This paper attempts to accommodate the expert's knowledge to overcome missing data and incorporate fuzzy set and evidence theory to assess the uncertainties. Further, dependency coefficient-based fuzzy and evidence theory approaches have been developed to address the model uncertainty for bow-tie analysis. In addition, a method of sensitivity analysis is proposed to predict the most contributing input events in the bow-tie analysis. To demonstrate the utility of the approaches in industrial application, a bow-tie diagram of the BP Texas City accident is developed and analyzed.     

Risk-based asset integrity indicators

Asset integrity is a major concern of process facilities. Monitoring and assessing asset integrity is a challenging task due to the involvement of various dependent and independent parameters. Monitoring and assessing asset performance through indicators is one easily doable option. Lack of an appropriate set of indicators quantification technique and measurement cohesion limits the use of an indicator system. To overcome this, in the present paper a hierarchical framework is prepared to for asset integrity monitoring and assessment. The hierarchical structure is used to characterize the asset and relate it to an organization’s strategic goal. The hierarchical structure is based on three major areas of asset integrity, namely: mechanical, personnel and process. Further, it provides an opportunity to follow a bottom-up perspective for identifying multilevel level indicators. The proposed approach uses a risk metric to classify asset integrity through the integration of leading and lagging indicators’ outcome. The analytical hierarchy process is used to determine the weights, or for prioritization of each level indicator and for the aggregation of the indicators to classify risk. To test the proposed model, a benchmark study is conducted. The estimated asset integrity index value provides a tangible asset’s performance index. The system of indicators and their integration provide a comprehensive view of the process facility’s status and also reveal which sections of the facility need more attention.     

Potential sources and meteorological factors affecting PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript>-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon levels in six main cities of northeastern Italy: an assessment of the related carcinogenic and mutagenic risks

A yearlong sampling campaign (2012–2013) was conducted in six major cities of the Veneto region to investigate the spatial-temporal trends and the factors affecting the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) variations and identify the local sources. Sixty samples per city were collected for analyses in every alternate month (April, June, August, October, December, and February): 10 samples per sampling site in 10 consecutive days of the months selected. Samples were ultrasonically extracted with acetonitrile and processed through high-performance liquid chromatography. Total Σ-PAH concentrations ranged from 0.19 to 70.4 ng m^?3 with a mean concentration of 11.5 ng m^?3. The mean benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) concentration reached 2.0 ng m^?3, which is two-times higher than the limit set by the European Union. BaP contributed for 17.4% to the total concentration of PAHs, which showed the same pattern across the region with maxima during cold months and minima in the warm period. In this study, PAHs showed an inverse relationship with temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and ozone. According to this study, biomass burning for household heating and cooking, followed by gaseous PAHs absorption on particles due to low atmospheric temperature, were the main reasons for increasing PAHs concentration in winter. Health risk, evaluated as lifetime lung cancer risk (LCR), showed a potential carcinogenic risk from the airborne BaP_TEQ six-fold higher in the cold season than in the warm one. Diagnostic ratios and conditional probability functions were used to locate the sources, and results confirmed that local emission, overall domestic heating, and road transport exhausts were responsible for higher concentration rates of PAHs as well as of PM_2.5.     

A quantitative risk management framework for dust and hybrid mixture explosions

Dust and hybrid-mixture explosions continue to occur in industrial processes that handle fine powders and flammable gases. Considerable research is therefore conducted throughout the world with the objective of both preventing the occurrence and mitigating the consequences of such events. In the current work, research has been undertaken to help move the field of dust explosion prevention and mitigation from its current emphasis on hazards (with an accompanying reliance on primarily engineered safety features) to a focus on risk (with an accompanying reliance on hierarchical, risk-based, decision-making tools). Employing the principles of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of dust and hybrid-mixture explosions, a methodological framework for the management of these risks has been developed.The QRA framework is based on hazard identification via credible accident scenarios for dust explosions, followed by probabilistic fault-tree analysis (using Relex – Reliability Excellence – software) and consequence severity analysis (using DESC – Dust Explosion Simulation Code – software). Identification of risk reduction measures in the framework is accomplished in a hierarchical manner by considering inherent safety measures, passive and active engineered devices, and procedural measures (in that order). An industrial case study is presented to show how inherent safety measures such as dust minimization and dust/process moderation can be helpful in reducing dust and hybrid-mixture explosion consequences in a 400-m³ polyethylene storage silo.     

Effect of feeding dried sweet orange (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Citrus sinensis</Emphasis>) peel and lemon grass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cymbopogon citratus</Emphasis>) leaves on growth performance,carcass traits,serum metabolites and antioxidant status in broiler during the finisher phase

The current experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of feeding dried sweet orange peel (SOP) and lemon grass leaves (LGL) as feed additives on broiler growth performance, serum metabolites, and antioxidant status. A total of 192-day-old (Ross 308) broiler chickens were distributed randomly into 4 dietary treatments with 4 replicates per each treatment. The dietary treatments included a control diet without any feed additive (T1), a diet containing 0.8 % SOP (T2), a diet containing 0.8 % LGL (T3), and a diet containing combination of 0.4 % SOP?+?0.4 % LGL (T4) was fed during the growth period from 22 to 42 days. Feed intake (FI), body weight gain (BWG), feed conversion ratio (FCR), carcass traits, serum components, and antioxidant status were measured. At the end of the experimental period, the results indicated that supplementation of SOP and LGL alone or in combination did not significantly (P?>?0.05) affect BWG, FI, FCR, and carcass characteristics in broiler chickens. Serum total protein was increased significantly (P?<?0.05) in T3 and T4 compared to the other treatments. Also, serum globulin increased significantly (P?<?0.05) in the treated groups. Serum glucose, low density lipoprotein, triglyceride, and very low density lipoprotein decreased significantly (P?<?0.05) in the treatment groups, while cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein decreased in T2 compared to the other groups. Significantly (P?<?0.05) higher total antioxidant status was observed in T2 compared to the other treatments. In conclusion, these results indicate that SOP, LGL, and their combination may positively modify some serum components and the antioxidant status without any beneficial effect on growth performance and carcass traits in broiler chickens.     

Accumulation of mercury and its effect on antioxidant enzymes in brain,liver, and kidneys of mice

Abstract

The effect of mercuric chloride (HgCl₂) on the activities of catalase, Superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), glutathione reductase (GR) and its effect on glutathione (GSH) content were evaluated in different organs (liver, kidneys, and brain) of mice after administration at 0, 0.25, 0.5 and 1.0 mg/kg/day for 14 days. The uptake of mercury shows that the kidneys accumulated the highest levels of mercury compare to brain and liver. The enzyme levels varied in mercury treated organs compare to control. A dose dependent increase of antioxidant enzymes occurred in the liver and kidneys. The increase in enzyme activities correlated with highest mercury accumulation in the kidneys and liver. Mercury is known to generate reactive oxygen species (ROS) in vivo and in vitro, therefore, it is likely that enzyme activities increased to scavenge ROS levels produced as a result of mercury accumulation. Glutathione content increased in liver and kidneys of mercury treated mice compare to control. The results showed that the highest oral dose of mercury significantly increased antioxidant enzymes in kidneys and liver. The increased antioxidant enzymes enhance the antioxidant potential of the organs to reduce oxidative stress.     

Handling data uncertainties in event tree analysis

Event tree analysis (ETA) is an established risk analysis technique to assess likelihood (in a probabilistic context) of an accident. The objective data available to estimate the likelihood is often missing (or sparse), and even if available, is subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision (vagueness). Without addressing incompleteness and imprecision in the available data, ETA and subsequent risk analysis give a false impression of precision and correctness that undermines the overall credibility of the process. This paper explores two approaches to address data uncertainties, namely, fuzzy sets and evidence theory, and compares the results with Monte Carlo simulations. A fuzzy-based approach is used for handling imprecision and subjectivity, whereas evidence theory is used for handling inconsistent, incomplete and conflicting data. Application of these approaches in ETA is demonstrated using the example of an LPG release near a processing facility.     

Episodic envy and counterproductive work behaviors: Is more justice always good?

The authors examined how perceived event‐specific procedural and distributive justice about own and envied others' outcomes interacts with episodic envy to predict counterproductive work behaviors. Our results were consistent with the attribution model of justice, finding that episodic envy significantly predicted counterproductive work behaviors aimed at envied others in the workplace and that this relationship was more pronounced when perceptions of procedural, but not distributive, justice about own or envied others' outcomes were high rather than low. We tested a moderated‐mediation model in which self‐attributions for the outcome mediated the effect of episodic envy on counterproductive work behaviors and that the effect of envy was stronger when perceptions of own or others' procedural justice were high rather than low. This research contributes to the literature on envy processes in the workplace and is the first to use a specific emotion, envy, as a proxy for a negative outcome in a demonstration of the attribution model of justice. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.