SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT CASE STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20–25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low-to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from “business as usual” with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.     

MITIGATING IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated the effects of institutional responses developed for coping with a severe sustained drought (SSD) in the Colorado River Basin on selected system variables using a SSD inflow hydrology derived from the drought which occurred in the Colorado River basin from 1579–1616. Institutional responses considered are reverse equalization, salinity reduction, minimum flow requirements, and temporary suspension of the delivery obligation of the Colorado River Compact. Selected system variables (reservoir contents, streamflows, consumptive uses, salinity, and power generation) from scenarios incorporating the drought-coping responses were compared to those from Baseline conditions using the current operating criteria. The coping responses successfully mitigated some impacts of the SSD on consumptive uses in the Upper Basin with only slight impacts on consumptive uses in the Lower Basin, and successfully maintained specified minimum streamflows throughout the drought with no apparent effect on consumptive uses. The impacts of the coping responses on other system variables were not as clear cut. We also assessed the effects of the drought-coping responses to normal and wet hydrologic conditions to determine if they were overly conservative. The results show that the rules would have inconsequential effects on the system during normal and wet years.     

THE EFFECTS OF A MOVING RAINSTORM ON DIRECT RUNOFF PROPERTIES1

ABSTRACT: The effects of a moving rainstorm on flood runoff characteristics were investigated. A flood hydrograph simulation model called “FH-Model” and a natural watershed were used. A hypothetical rainstorm of 50 years recurrence interval, 75 mm depth, and 4 hours duration was used to show the effects of velocity and direction of the moving rainstorm on the runoff characteristics. Compared with an equivalent stationary rainstorm (ESRS), the peak flow caused by a rainstorm moving in a downstream direction with a speed equal to channel velocity, V, was 27.5 percent higher and the peak flow caused by the same rainstorm moving in an upstream direction was 21.7 percent smaller. These percentages reduced to 10.5 percent and 8.6 percent for storms moving downstream and upstream, respectively, at three times the channel velocity, 3V. There were negligible differences in the time of peak, T_p between runoff caused by storms moving downstream and runoff produced by ESRS. However, T_p for a storm moving upstream at V velocity was 82 percent higher than that produced by ESRS, but was reduced to 27 percent higher when the storm velocity was 3V.     

Habitat classification: A comparison using avian species and guilds

Results of breeding bird censuses in 1979 and 1980 were used to compare the relationships of both species and guilds to forest habitats in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Several age classes of 11 forest cover types were studied: northern hard-woods (Fagus-Betula-Acer), spruce (Picea), spruce-fir (Picea-Abies), birth (Betula), swamp hardwoods (Acer-Pinus-Tsuga), pine (Pinus strobus andP. resinosa), balsam fir (Abies), aspen (Populus tremuloides andP. grandidentata), northern red oak (Quercus), oak-pine (Quercus-Pinus), and hemlock (Tsuga). All types were even-aged; only northern hardwoods had an additional uneven-aged condition. Forest cover types were also pooled to consider generalized habitats: hardwoods, mixed forest, or softwoods. Results of ordinations based on censuses of 74 bird species indicate that foraging guilds are more related to general cover types than are nesting substrate guilds, but bird species reflect habitat differences to a greater degree than do either guild scheme. Also, considerable overlap occurs in bird species distribution between hardwoods and mixed forests; softwoods show little overlap with other types. Discriminant function and classification analyses revealed that bird species composition can be used to correctly classify general forest habitats more accurately (83.8%) than either foraging (63.2%) or nesting substrate guilds (58.4%). These results indicate that, of the habitats studied, avian species compositions are more characteristic than are foraging or nesting substrate guild composition, which tend to be similar across forest habitats.     

Dynamics of fisheries that affect the population growth rate coefficient

Conventional surplus production models indicate that destruction of fish populations by overfishing is difficult, if not impossible, but catastrophic declines in abundance of exploited populations are common. Surplus production models also do not predict large continuing fluctuations in yield, but large fluctuations in yield are common. Conventional surplus production models assume that fisheries do not impact the population's capacity to increase, but changes in age structure or a decrease in age-specific fecundity resulting from fishing can decrease the coefficient of increase. A surplus production model is developed in which fishing reduces the capacity of a population to increase; the model is applied to describe the fluctuations observed in yield of lake herring (Coregonus artedii) from the upper Great Lakes. The fisheries of the Great Lakes were decimated by the combined effects of heavy fishing and a changing environment. For some species, yield increased to high levels and then the fisheries collapsed; for other species, yield and effort fluctuated greatly.     

SIMULATION OF HERBICIDE CONCENTRATIONS IN STORMFLOW FROM FORESTED WATERSHEDS1

The breakpoint rainfall hydrology and pesticide options of the field scale model CREAMS (Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems) were used to predict average concentrations of hexazinone [3 cyclohexyl-6-(dimethyl-amino)-1-methyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4(1H,3H)-dione] in stormflow from four forested watersheds in the upper Piedmont region of Georgia. Predicted concentrations were compared with measured concentrations recorded over a 13-month period. CREAMS accurately predicted hexazinone concetrations in the initial stormflow events which also contained the highest concentrations. The model underestimated the hexazinone concentrations in stormflow two months and greater following pesticide application. In a companion study, the daily rainfall option of the CREAMS model was used to evaluate the reltive risk associated with the maximum expected concentration of hexazinone, bromacil (5-bromo-3 sec-butyl-6 methyuracil), picloram (4-amino-3,5,6 trichloropicolinic acid), dicamba (3,6-dichloro-0-anisic acid), and triclopyr {[(3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinyl)oxy] acetic acid} in stormflow from small forested watersheds. The model predicted the following order of potential residue appearance in stormflow: bromacil>triclopyr>hexazinone>picloram>dicamba. Subsurface movement of residues via interflow and deep leaching losses are not simulated by the version of CREAMS used in these studies.     

Insect management in deciduous orchard ecosystems: Habitat manipulation

Current literature pertaining to habitat manipulation of deciduous fruit and nut orchards for pest control is reviewed. The hypothesis of pesticide-induced pest problems in deciduous orchards as well as the changing pest population dynamics of deciduous orchards is discussed An experimental habitat manipulation program for pecans, utilizing vetch cover crops to enhance lady beetle populations for pecan aphid control is presented     

WATER YIELD AUGMENTATION THROUGH FOREST AND RANGE MANAGEMENT - ISSUES FOR THE FUTURE1

The demand for more water is increasing throughout the country. Research on upland watersheds clearly demonstrates that water yield can be increased using forest and range management practices. Based on the experience of the past several decades and a review of six papers in a recent AWRA series on water yield augmentation through vegetation management, the following issues and concerns are discussed: predicting increased yields from large basins; economic evaluation of additional flows; court acceptance and need for system models; the legal question of ownership and transferability of increased yields; and management emphasis on private and federal lands. The immediate potential for water yield augmentation is on carefully selected watersheds that have the bio-physical potential to produce high value water under environmentally acceptable multiple use management. We predict water yield management on a broader scale will result from increased pressures to solve the legal and economic issues involved.