Windows of change: temporal scale of analysis is decisive to detect ecosystem responses to climate change

Long-term ecological research has become a cornerstone of the scientific endeavour to better understand ecosystem responses to environmental change. This paper provides a perspective on how such research could be advanced. It emphasizes that a profound understanding of the mechanisms underlying these responses requires that records of ecologic processes be not only sufficiently long, but also collected at an appropriate temporal resolution. We base our argument on an overview of studies of climate impacts in limnic and marine ecosystems, suggesting that lakes and oceans respond to (short-term) weather conditions during critical time windows in the year. The observed response patterns are often time-lagged or driven by the crossing of thresholds in weather-related variables (such as water temperature and thermal stratification intensity). It becomes clear from the previous studies that average annual, seasonal or monthly climate data often fall short of characterizing the thermal dynamics that most organisms respond to. To illustrate such literature-based evidence using a concrete example, we compare 2?years of water temperature data from Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany) at multiple temporal scales (from hours to years). This comparison underlines the pitfalls of analysing data at resolutions not high enough to detect critical differences in environmental forcing. Current science initiatives that aim at improving the temporal resolution of long-term observatory data in aquatic systems will help to identify adequate timescales of analysis necessary for the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change.     

Klima wandel und Malaria

Goal and Scope

The coastal zones of Lower Saxony (Germany) are former malaria regions. Malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s, and subsequently related scientific investigations declined. But from that time until nowadays, the vector in the form of Anopheles mosquitoes has still been present in Lower Saxony. Thus, the question arises, whether a new autochthon transmission could take place due to the monthly mean temperatures of the recent years. Answering this question was one goal of the investigation at hand. Another one was to examine the spatial and temporal structure of potential transmissions in respect to the predicted increase of the air temperatures according to the IPCC scenarios.

Methods

Current information about anophelines and their characteristics within Germany, such as details on historical incidences, breeding preferences, longevity or distribution of the respective species, were collected by literature research. Further, measurement and incidence data had to be collected and processed: temperature values were provided by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), and recent findings of Anopheles were supplied by the former Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Ökologie (NLÖ) as a data bank. Then temperature maps were calculated for the three periods (1947–1960, 1961–1990, 1985–2004) by means of Kriging. To model areas at risk, the transmission potential for a new vivax malaria spread in respect to temperature was computed using the Basic Reproduction Rate (R₀) formula. It provides the average number of secondary infections produced when a single infected individual is introduced into a potential host population in which each member is susceptible.

Results

The computations corroborate a climate warming between the 30-years interval from 1961 to 1990 and the period from 1985 to 2004. According to the rise of the air temperature as predicted by the IPCC scenarios, the spatial pattern of potential malaria outbreak was calculated for 2020, 2060 an 2100. To this end, for each of these years a best-case-scenario with the lowest reasonable temperature increases (+0.3°C, +0.9°C, +1.4°C) and a worst-case-scenario implying the highest plausible temperature rise (+0.9°C, +3.3°C, +5.8°C) were assumed. While in 2020 the maximum duration of the transmission risk is estimated to last four months, in 2100 the vivax transmission will be likely from May until October.

Discussion

Correlated with the higher monthly mean temperature values, the risk of a vivax transmission is increasing as temperature is the determining variable of the mathematical model. Therefore Lower Saxony is at risk of a new outbreak of vivax malaria assuming no other risk factors are of relevance.

Conclusions

The study could demonstrate that most parts of the country lie within a transmission zone with a duration of two months. The areas containing the highest risk with a transmission length of three months are located around Nordhorn and Hameln, and within the rectangle of Celle, Hannover, Helmstedt and Wolfsburg. These areas match with recent Anopheles larvae finding by the NLÖ, thus, only the pathogen is lacking for a successful transmission. And as Germany is not an endemic malaria zone, the pathogen can enter the country most likely by infected people or imported mosquitoes that transport it in their guts.

Recommendations and Perspectives

The results should be understood as a request for more comprehensive investigations in that field. This would be an essential basis for a successful risk monitoring and precautionary management. Although the chances of a new endemic malaria disease in Germany seem to be considerably low today, it would be better to be prepared than to be suddenly faced with the unexpected.     

Assessment of the environmental impact of landfill sites with open combustion located in arid regions by combined chemical and ecotoxicological studies

Two different waste disposal sites in Jordan were investigated in order to determine the environmental situation in context with waste disposal techniques. One landfill, located at Marka/Amman, had been closed about 25 years ago and covered with soil. Here, the waste had been actively open combusted and openings in the cover, still emitting smoke, indicated that waste was still smoldering inside the landfill's body. The second disposal site close to Ekeeder/Irbid is still operated. On this ground, the solid waste is not intentionally burned, although spontaneous fires frequently come up. Samples of waste, soil, and entrained dust were collected and analyzed. From the solid samples, respectively, their eluates, sum parameters, ecotoxicological effects as well as contents of elements/heavy metals and organic pollutants (PAH, PCDD/F) were determined. In general, the Ekeeder-samples were low-contaminated. The investigation of the Marka-samples showed higher contamination of the site's center, clearly being influenced by combustion processes. A significant contamination of the landfill's vicinity by its emissions could not be derived from the analytical data. Ecotoxicological investigations, applying a bio-test battery, revealed correlations with the sum parameters but not with the trace pollutants. Thus, the Marka-samples with the highest measured values of sum parameters caused adverse effects on three different test species, whereas other samples from Marka and Ekeeder had small or no effects. The results of these investigations depict the influence of different disposal techniques on the contamination situation of a landfill and they shall contribute to assess the conditions of other disposal sites in (semi)arid regions.     

Feasibility and costs of phosphorus application limits on 39 U.S. swine operations

Concerns about manure P and water quality have prompted new regulations imposing P limits on land application of manure. Previous research established that P limits increase land needs for animal feeding operations. We evaluated the effect of N, annual P, and rotation P limits on the feasibility of manure management. A mechanistic model characterized manure management practices on 39 swine operations (20 unagitated lagoon and 19 slurry operations) in five states (Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania). Extensive information collected from each operation was used to determine effects of manure storage type, ownership structure, and application limits on attributes of manure management. Phosphorus limits had substantially greater effect on slurry operations, increasing land needs 250% (0.3 hectares per animal unit [AU]) and time for manure application 24% (2.5 min AU(-1)) for rotation P limits and 41% (4.4 min AU(-1)) for annual P limits. Annual P limits were infeasible for current land application equipment on two operations and had the greatest effect on time and costs because they required all but three slurry operations to reduce discharge rate. We recommend implementing rotation P limits (not to exceed crop N need) to minimize time effects, allow most farmers to use their current manure application methods, and allow manure to fulfill crop N and P needs in the year of application. Phosphorus limits increased potential manure value but would require slurry operations to recover at least 61% of manure value through manure sales. Phosphorus limits are likely to shape the U.S. swine industry through differential effects on the various sectors of the swine industry.     

A multi media load model for the Baltic Sea

The background of this work is the international decision process with regard to the selection of chemicals to be assessed with priority. In order to stress the precautionary principle, mass flows were analysed rather than concentrations, threshold values, etc., as preferred by the chemical legislation (which still excludes the marine area). Lindane, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), trichloroacetic acid and its sodium salt, medium-chained chlorinated paraffins and tributyltin (TBT) were selected due to their great relevance for the marine area. Trichloroacetic acid is an interesting model compound on account of its accidental formation by degradation of volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons and during chlorination processes. In addition, a hypothetical compound was modelled, representing a highly water-soluble substance with low vapour pressure. The balancing area is the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. In order to model the substance flows, the 'Input/Output-load model' has been developed. The model quantifies the shift and the distribution of a yearly load of the substance investigated from the terrestrial-limnic into the marine compartment (Baltic Sea). Water-soluble substances, which are usually considered to be of no concern, may enter the sea in great amounts and, if not degradable, remain there. It turned out to be necessary to take into account remobilisation, unintended formation and point as well as line-sources.     

Zur Methylierung von 1-Phenyl-5-sulfanilamido-pyrazol

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