The empirical properties of two classes of designs for transferable discharge permit markets

Previous work by Atkinson and Lewis (J. Environ. Econ. Manag.1, 237–250 (1974)) and Anderson et al. (“An Analysis of Alternative Policies for Attaining and Maintaining a Short-Term NO₂ Standard,” MATHTECH, Inc., Princeton, N.J., 1979) has indicated the tremendous cost advantages to be achieved by moving from a policy based on emission standards to one based on marketable emission permits. As Tietenberg (Land Econ.56, 391–416 (1980)) points out, however, neither of the major permit designs treated in the literature are optimal from all points of view. This has triggered a search for alternative permit designs, which, while they may not minimize compliance costs, have sufficient other virtues as to make them attractive on other grounds. The purpose of this paper is to examine, within the context of an empirical mathematical programming model, the air quality, emission, and cost consequences of two classes of the permit designs which can be implemented in the absence of information on control costs. This case study involves particulate control in St. Louis.     

Interactive effects of natural and human disturbances on vegetation dynamics across landscapes.

Accurate measures of human effects on landscape processes require consideration of both the direct impacts from human activities and the indirect consequences of the interactions between humans and the landscape. This is particularly evident in systems experiencing regular natural disturbances such as in the mountainous areas of southwestern China, where the remaining population of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is supported. Here the spatiotemporal patterns of human impacts, forests, and bamboo episodic die-offs combine to determine the distribution of panda habitat. To study the complex interactions of humans and landscapes, we developed an integrated spatiotemporally explicit model of household activities, natural vegetation dynamics, and their impacts on panda habitat. Using this model we examined the direct consequences of local fuelwood collection and household creation on areas of critical giant panda habitat and the indirect impacts when coupled with vegetation dynamics. Through simulations, we found that over the next 30 years household impacts would result in the loss of up to 30% of the habitat relied on by pandas during past bamboo die-offs. The accumulation and spatial distribution of household impacts would also have a considerable indirect influence on the spatial distribution of understory bamboo. While human impacts influence both bamboo die-off and regeneration, over 19% of pre-existing low-elevation bamboo habitat may be lost following an episodic die-off depending on the severity of the impacts and timing of the die-offs. Our study showed not only the importance of the spatial distribution of direct household impacts on habitat, but also the far-reaching effects of the indirect interactions between humans and the landscapes they are modifying.     

Physiological ecology of a mussel with methanotrophic endosymbionts at three hydrocarbon seep sites in the Gulf of Mexico

In situ growth rates were determined, using two, 1-yr mark/recapture experiments, conducted between September 1991 and July 1993, for an undescribed mytilid, Seep Mytilid Ia, at three hydrocarbon seep sites in the Gulf of Mexico. The sites are located at depths of 540 to 730m, approximately 27°45N; 91°30W, and are separated by distances of 6 to 18 miles. These seep mytilids harbor methanotrophic endosymbionts and use methane as both a carbon and energy source. The mussel habitats were chemically characterized by analysis of water samples taken from precisely located microenvironments over, among and below the mussels, using small-volume, interstitial water samplers and the Johnson Sea Link submersible. Substantial differences were found in habital conditions, growth rates, and population structure for the mussels at the three sites examined. The growth rate of these seep mytilids reflects the methane concentration in their immediate habitat. Mussels at sites with abundant methane had growth rates that were comparable to shallow water mytilids at similar temperatures (5 to 8°C) with increases in shell length up to 17 mm yr^–1 documented for smaller mussels (<40 mm shell length). In conjunction with measurements of growth rates, three condition indices (glycogen content, tissue water content, and the ratio of ash-free dry weight to shell volume) were used to determine the relationship between the condition of the mussels, their growth rates, and their habitat chemistry. The three condition indices were correlated with growth rate and were often significantly different between mussels in different samples.     

Migratory and reproductive movements of male leatherback turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Dermochelys coriacea</Emphasis>)

The biology of the endangered leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) at sea is poorly understood. As research has been almost exclusively limited to studies of nesting females, the movements of male turtles and the timing and location of mating activity have remained unknown. We report on the first deployments of satellite tags on male leatherbacks. Male migration to and residency in waters adjacent low-latitude nesting beaches in the western Atlantic suggest that this is where mating occurs, and return migration to these areas reveals male fidelity for breeding sites. Rate of travel decreased markedly after arriving in coastal breeding areas, where males remained for up to 96 days before assuming northward migrations. The initiation of these northward migrations coincided with peak nesting activity in adjacent nesting colonies. Data from satellite-linked time-depth recorders attached to two males revealed diel dive patterns in breeding areas and marked differences in diving behaviour between migratory and breeding periods in one turtle. When male turtles were in waters adjacent nesting colonies, their movements differed from those reported for nesting females, with females ranging farther from shore. Our results suggest that male leatherbacks may be vulnerable to entanglement in coastal fishing gear in waters adjacent nesting beaches.Communicated by R.J. Thompson, St. Johns     

Elk decision-making rules are simplified in the presence of wolves

The risk of predation drives many behavioral responses in prey. However, few studies have directly tested whether predation risk alters the way other variables influence prey behavior. Here we use information theory (Akaike’s Information Criterion, AICc) in a novel way to test the hypothesis that the decision-making rules governing elk behavior are simplified by the presence of wolves. With elk habitat use as the dependent variable, we test whether the number of independent variables (i.e., the size of the models) that best predict this behavior differ when wolves are present vs absent. Thus, we use AICc scores simply to determine the number of variables to which elk respond when making decisions. We measured habitat use using 2,288 locations from GPS collars on 14 elk, over two winters (14 elk winters), in the Gallatin Canyon portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that the use of three major habitat components (grass, conifer, sage) was sensitive to many variables on days that wolves were locally absent, with the best models (ΔAICc≤2) averaging 7.4 parameters. In contrast, habitat use was sensitive to few variables on days when wolves were present: the best models averaged only 2.5 parameters. Because fewer variables affect elk behavior in the presence of wolves, we conclude that elk use simpler decision-making rules in the presence of wolves. This simplification of decision-making rules implies that predation risk imposes selection pressures that do not allow prey to respond to other pressures in ways that they otherwise would. If the affected processes are important, then this indirect effect of predation is likely to be important.     

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.     

Comparison of light- and SST-based geolocation with satellite telemetry in free-ranging albatrosses

Light-based archival tags are increasingly being used on free-ranging marine vertebrates to study their movements using geolocation estimates. These methods use algorithms that incorporate threshold light techniques to determine longitude and latitude. More recently, researchers have begun using sea surface temperature (SST) to determine latitude in temperate regions. The accuracy and application of these algorithms have not been validated on free-ranging birds. Errors in both geolocation methods were quantified by double-tagging Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis Rothschild) and black-footed (P. nigripes Audubon) albatrosses with both leg-mounted archival tags that measured SST and ambient light, and satellite transmitters. Laysan albatrosses were captured and released from breeding colonies on Tern Island, northwestern Hawaiian Islands (23°52N, 166°17W) and Guadalupe Island, Mexico (28°31N, 118°10W) and black-footed albatrosses from Tern Island. Studies were carried out between December 2002 and March 2003. For all birds combined, the mean ± SD great circle (GC) distance between light-based locations and satellite-derived locations was 400±298 km (n=131). Errors in geolocation positions were reduced to 202±171 km (n=154) when light-based longitude and SST-based latitude (i.e. SST/light) were used to establish locations. The SST/light method produced comparable results for two Laysan albatross populations that traveled within distinctly different oceanic regions (open ocean vs more coastal) whereas light-based methods produced greater errors in the coastal population. Archival tags deployed on black-footed albatrosses returned a significantly higher proportion of lower-quality locations, which was attributed to interference of the light sensor on the tag. Overall, the results demonstrate that combining measures of light-based longitude and SST-based latitude significantly reduces the error in location estimates for albatrosses and can provide valid latitude estimates during the equinoxes, when light-based latitude measurements are indeterminate.Communicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick