A methodological framework and tool for assessing the climate change related risks in the banking sector

Although climate change risks have been studied for a number of economic sectors, banking has received relatively little attention. The paper proposes a methodology and an associated decision-support tool for quantifying, in monetary terms, the risks for banks from the exposure of their loan recipients and/or applicants to climate change. The framework and tool are applied to a case study based on input from a Greek bank; results indicate that climate change risks for banks are considerable, and thus decision makers need to estimate their magnitude and possibly consider these within the credit management process, and in environmental planning.     

Numerical simulation of reactive processes in an experiment with partially saturated bentonite

Bentonites are preferred materials for use as engineered barriers for high-level nuclear waste repositories. Simulation of geochemical processes in bentonite is therefore important for long-term safety assessment of those repositories. In this work, the porewater chemistry of a bentonite sample subject to simultaneous heating and hydration, as studied by Cuevas et al. [Cuevas, J., Villar, M., Fernández, A., Gómez, P., Martín, P., 1997. Porewaters extracted from compacted bentonite subjected to simultaneous heating and hydration. Applied Geochemistry 12, 473-481.], was assessed with a non-isothermal reactive transport model by coupling the geochemical software PHREEQC2 with the object-oriented FEM simulator GeoSys/RockFlow. Reactive transport modelling includes heat transport, two-phase flow, multicomponent transport and geochemical reactions in the liquid phase, i.e. ion exchange, mineral dissolution/precipitation and equilibrium reactions. Simulations show that the easily soluble minerals in bentonite determine the porewater chemistry. Temperature affects both two-phase flow and geochemical reactions. Porosity change due to dissolution/precipitation is low during the experiment. However, changes of the effective porosity caused by bentonite swelling can be very large. The simulated results agree well with the experimental data.     

Diurnal variations in bacterial and viral production in Cochin estuary, India

Microbes play a central role in the decomposition and remineralization of organic matter and recycling of nutrients in aquatic environments. In this study, we examined the influence of physical, chemical, and biological parameters on the rate of bacterial production (BP) and viral production (VP) with respect to primary production over a diurnal period in Cochin estuary. Time series measurements were made every 2 h for 12 h (6 a.m.–6 p.m.) during periods of low and high salinities. The light intensity as photosynthetically active radiation, temperature, salinity, nutrients like NO₃–N, SiO₄–Si, and PO₄–P, and chlorophyll a (Chl a) were measured along with BP, VP, and net primary production (NPP). NPP showed a strong positive correlation with light and Chl a (r ²?=?0.56 and 0.47, respectively), while VP showed a strong positive correlation with light, salinity, and Chl a (r ²?=?0.37, 0.58, and 0.37, respectively) and a negative correlation with BP (r ²?=??0.39) at P?≤?0.05. We observed a diurnal pattern in BP but did not have any significant correlation with light. Similar diurnal pattern was seen in VP, the peak of which was in succession with BP, suggesting that virus-mediated lysis plays an important role in loss processes of bacteria in Cochin estuary. The results of our study highlight the light-dependent and physicochemical-dependent diurnal variation in virioplankton production in a tropical estuarine ecosystem.     

99Tc in seawater in the West Spitsbergen Current and adjacent areas

99Tc levels were measured in seawater samples collected between 2000 and 2002 in the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) and along the western coast of Svalbard or Spitzbergen and compared with available oceanographic 3-D modelling results for the late 1990s. Additional data from related regions are also presented in order to support the data interpretation. The seawater in the Arctic fjord Kongsfjorden on the western coast of Svalbard is influenced by the WSC, as shown by the 99Tc levels in surface water. By means of the WSC, 99Tc reaches the Eastern Fram Strait, where one branch of the WSC turns west into the East Greenland Current (EGC), and another branch continues northwards into the Arctic Ocean. Surface seawater collected in the central part of the WSC during a cruise on board the R/V "Polarstern" in the summer of 2000, showed higher levels of (99)Tc than samples measured in Kongsfjorden in the spring of 2000. However, all levels measured in surface water are of the same order of magnitude. Data from sampling of deeper water in the WSC and EGC provide information pertaining to the lateral distribution of 99Tc. In all vertical profiling surveys (conducted in spring and summer), the highest levels of 99Tc were found in surface water. Comparison with oceanographic 3-D modelling indicates both significant seasonal variations in the lateral stratification of the WSC and variations with depth over shorter vertical distances. This information can be applied in sampling strategies, environmental monitoring, long-range transport of pollutants and physical oceanography.     

Geostatistical analysis as applied to two environmental radiometric time series

This article details the results of an investigation into the application of geostatistical data analysis to two environmentalradiometric time series. The data series employed consist of ⁹⁹Tc values for seaweed (Fucus vesiculosus) and seawater samples taken as part of a marine monitoring program conducted on the coast of northern Norway by the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Geostatistical methods were selected in order to provide information on values of the variables at unsampled times and to investigate the temporalcorrelation exhibited by the data sets. This information is ofuse in the optimisation of future sampling schemes and for providing information on the temporal behaviour of the variablesin question that may not be obtained during a cursory analysis.The results indicate a high degree of temporal correlation withinthe data sets, the correlation for the seawater and seaweed databeing modelled with an exponential and linear function,respectively. The semi-variogram for the seawater data indicatesa temporal range of correlation of approximately 395 days with noapparent random component to the overall variance structure and was described best by an exponential function. The temporal structure of the seaweed data was best modelled by a linear function with a small nugget component. Evidence of drift was present in both semi-variograms. Interpolation of the data setsusing the fitted models and a simple kriging procedure were compared, using a cross-validation procedure, with simple linearinterpolation. Results of this exercise indicate that, for theseawater data, the kriging procedure outperformed the simpleinterpolation with respect to error distribution andcorrelation of estimates with actual values. Using theunbounded linear model with the seaweed data produced estimatesthat were only marginally better than those produced by thesimple interpolation.     

Large particles are responsible for elevated bacterial marker levels in school air upon occupation

Muramic acid (Mur) is found in bacterial peptidoglycan (PG) whereas 3-hydroxy fatty acids (3-OH FAs) are found in Gram-negative bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Thus Mur and 3-OH FAs serve as markers to assess bacterial levels in indoor air. An initial survey, in a school, demonstrated that the levels of dust, PG and LPS (pmol m(-3)) were each much higher in occupied rooms than in the same rooms when unoccupied. In each instance, the Mur content of dust was increased and the hydroxy fatty acid distribution changed similarly suggesting an alteration in the bacterial population. Here, findings are compared with results from two additional schools. Follow-up aerosol monitoring by particle size was also performed for the first time for all 3 schools. The particle size distribution was shown to be quite different in occupied versus unoccupied schoolrooms. Within individual classrooms, concentrations of airborne particles [greater-than-or-equal]0.8 [micro sign]m in diameter, and CO(2) were correlated. This suggests that the increased levels of larger particles are responsible for elevation of bacterial markers during occupation. Release of culturable and non-culturable bacteria or bacterial aggregates from children (e.g. from flaking skin) might explain this phenomenon.     

The Sensitivity of California Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios1

Abstract: Using the latest available General Circulation Model (GCM) results we present an assessment of climate change impacts on California hydrology and water resources. The approach considers the output of two GCMs, the PCM and the HadCM3, run under two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: the high emission A1fi and the low emission B1. The GCM output was statistically downscaled and used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model to derive inflows to major reservoirs in the California Central Valley. Historical inflows used as inputs to the water resources model CalSim II were modified to represent the climate change perturbed conditions for water supply deliveries, reliability, reservoir storage and changes to variables of environmental concern. Our results show greater negative impacts to California hydrology and water resources than previous assessments of climate change impacts in the region. These impacts, which translate into smaller streamflows, lower reservoir storage and decreased water supply deliveries and reliability, will be especially pronounced later in the 21st Century and south of the San Francisco bay Delta. The importance of considering how climate change impacts vary for different temporal, spatial, and institutional conditions in addition to the average impacts is also demonstrated.