UNCERTAINTY BASED OPERATION OF LARGE SCALE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS: DEZ AND KAROON EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir operation involves a complex set of human decisions depending upon hydrologic conditions in the supply network including watersheds, lakes, transfer tunnels, and rivers. Water releases from reservoirs are adjusted in an attempt to provide a balanced response to different demands. When a system involves more than one reservoir, computational burdens have been a major obstacle in incorporating uncertainties and variations in supply and demand. A new generation of stochastic dynamic programming was developed in the 1980s and 1990s to incorporate the forecast and demand uncertainties. The Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming (BSDP) model and its extension, Demand Driven Stochastic Dynamic Programming (DDSP) model, are among those models. Recently, a Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming model (FSDP) also was developed for a single reservoir to model the errors associated with discretizing the variables using fuzzy set theory. In this study the DDSP and the FSDP models were extended and simplified for a complex system of Dez and Karoon reservoirs in the southwestern part of Iran. The simplified models are called Condensed Demand Driven Stochastic Programming (CDDSP) and Condensed Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming (CFSDP). The optimal operating policies developed by the CDDSP and the CFSDP models were simulated in a classical model and a fuzzy simulation model, respectively. The case study was used to demonstrate the advantages of implementing the proposed algorithm, and the results show the significant value of the proposed fuzzy based algorithm.     

A risk-based modelling approach to enhance shipping accident investigation

This paper developed a risk-based modelling approach to enhance the execution process of shipping accident investigation (SAI). Specifically, the paper addressed a fuzzy extended fault tree analysis (FFTA) that combines the effects of organizational faults and shipboard technical system failures under a unique risk assessment scheme. The case study illustrates that a novel idea behind the proposed methodology allows relevant accident investigators to clarify the probability of technical failures, operational misapplications, and legislative shortages leading to the shipping accident. The current SAI reports can be extended with an integrated risk assessment section to formulate integrated strategies along with risk control measures onboard ships. Since the consequences of shipping accidents are still a global concern, the paper addresses integration of a FFTA into SAI reports to ensure a consistent database and subsequent decision aid to accident analysis and prevention efforts in the maritime transportation industry.     

Energy,exergy, and economic analysis of solar still using coal cylinder fins: an experimental study

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The phenomenon of drinking water scarcity has turned into the foremost issue that the world’s populace is facing today. The Algerian desert...     

Removal of hinosan from underground water using NH4Cl-modified activated carbon from rice husk

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In the present study, NH4Cl-modified activated carbon was synthesized from rice husk and used as an adsorbent for removal of hinosan from underground...     

Assessment of anticipated performance index of some deciduous plant species under dust air pollution

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Green vegetation improvement is an economical strategy to mitigate dust air pollution. The anticipated performance index (API) is considered a main...     

Assessment of temporal and spatial water quality in international Gomishan Lagoon,Iran, using multivariate analysis

Coastal lagoon ecosystems are vulnerable to eutrophication, which leads to the accumulation of nutrients from the surrounding watershed over the long term. However, there is a lack of information about methods that could accurate quantify this problem in rapidly developed countries. Therefore, various statistical methods such as cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA), partial least square (PLS), principal component regression (PCR), and ordinary least squares regression (OLS) were used in this study to estimate total organic matter content in sediments (TOM) using other parameters such as temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, electrical conductivity (EC), nitrite (NO₂), nitrate (NO₃), biological oxygen demand (BOD), phosphate (PO₄), total phosphorus (TP), salinity, and water depth along a 3-km transect in the Gomishan Lagoon (Iran). Results indicated that nutrient concentration and the dissolved oxygen gradient were the most significant parameters in the lagoon water quality heterogeneity. Additionally, anoxia at the bottom of the lagoon in sediments and re-suspension of the sediments were the main factors affecting internal nutrient loading. To validate the models, R², RMSECV, and RPDCV were used. The PLS model was stronger than the other models. Also, classification analysis of the Gomishan Lagoon identified two hydrological zones: (i) a North Zone characterized by higher water exchange, higher dissolved oxygen and lower salinity and nutrients, and (ii) a Central and South Zone with high residence time, higher nutrient concentrations, lower dissolved oxygen, and higher salinity. A recommendation for the management of coastal lagoons, specifically the Gomishan Lagoon, to decrease or eliminate nutrient loadings is discussed and should be transferred to policy makers, the scientific community, and local inhabitants.     

Properties of Poly(Vinyl Alcohol)/Chitosan Nanocomposite Films Reinforced with Oil Palm Empty Fruit Bunch Amorphous Lignocellulose Nanofibers

The objective of this study was to investigate the properties of poly(vinyl alcohol)/chitosan nanocomposite films reinforced with different concentration of amorphous LCNFs. The properties analyzed were morphological, physical, chemical, thermal, biological, and mechanical characteristics. Oil palm empty fruit bunch LCNFs obtained from multi-mechanical stages were more dominated by amorphous region than crystalline part. Varied film thickness, swelling degree, and transparency of PVA/chitosan nanocomposite films reinforced with amorphous part were produced. Aggregated LCNFs, which reinforced PVA/chitosan polymer blends, resulted in irregular, rough, and uneven external surfaces as well as protrusions. Based on XRD analysis, there were two or three imperative peaks that indicated the presence of crystalline states. The increase in LCNFs concentration above 0.5% to PVA/chitosan polymer blends led to the decrease in crystallinity index of the films. A noticeable alteration of FTIR spectra, which included wavenumber and intensity, was obviously observed along with the inclusion of amorphous LCNFs. That indicated that a good miscibility between amorphous LCNFs and PVA/chitosan polymer blend generated chemical interaction of those polymers during physical blending. Reinforcement of PVA/chitosan polymer blends with amorphous LCNFs influenced the changes of T_g (glass transition temperature), T_m (melting point temperature), and T_max (maximum degradation temperature). Three thermal phases of PVA/chitosan/LCNFs nanocomposite films were also observed, including absorbed moisture evaporation, PVA and chitosan polymer backbone structural degradation and LCNFs pyrolysis, and by-products degradation of these polymers. The addition of LCNFs 0.5% had the highest tensile strength and the addition of LCNFs above 0.5% decreased the strength. The incorporation of OPEFB LCNFs did not show anti-microbial and anti-fungal properties of the films. The addition of amorphous LCNFs 0.5% into PVA/chitosan polymer blends resulted in regular and smooth external surfaces, enhanced tensile strength, increased crystallinity index, and enhanced thermal stability of the films.     

Effects of Compatibilizer and Thermoplastic Starch (TPS) Concentration on Morphological,Rheological, Tensile,Thermal and Moisture Sorption Properties of Plasticized Polylactic Acid/TPS Blends

The blends of polylactic acid plasticized with acetyl tributyl citrate (P-PLA) and thermoplastic wheat starch (TPS) were prepared by a co-rotating twin screw extruder and the effect of maleic anhydride grafted PLA (PLA-g-MA) content as reactive compatibilizer on blends compatibility through morphological, rheological and tensile properties of the blends was investigated. Considerable improvement in properties of P-PLA/TPS (70/30 w/w) blend with incorporating the optimum PLA-g-MA content of 4 phr was achieved as this blend exhibited better morphological and rheological properties with an increase by 158 and 276% in tensile strength and elongation at break, respectively, compared to the uncompatibilized blend. Also the thermal stability and moisture sorption properties of the blends as effected by TPS content were studied. Decreasing in thermal stability and increasing in equilibrium moisture content of the blends were observed with progressively increasing of TPS content. For prediction the moisture sorption behaviour of blends with various TPS contents at different relative humidity, the moisture sorption isotherm data were modeled by GAB (Guggenheim–Anderson–de Boer) model.     

Hospital admissions in Iran for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases attributed to the Middle Eastern Dust storms

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The main objective of this study was to assess the possible effects of airborne particulate matter less than 10 μm in diameter (PM10)...