基于BWM群决策赋权与FMEA的风险评估方法*

为实现BWM群决策评估结果的有效聚合,构建1种基于输入数据的决策者赋权法。该赋权法基于输入数据的一致性水平,衡量决策者对评估对象的认知程度并确定权重,使BWM能够应用于群决策过程,从而构建基于BWM群决策赋权和FMEA的风险评估法。通过邮轮玻璃幕墙风险评估的实例验证该方法,并通过序数一致性分析方法的有效性。研究结果表明:在客观数据缺乏而依赖专家主观经验评估的情况下,该方法能够降低评估能力较低个体对团队评估结果的影响。     

基于虚拟治理成本法的生态环境损害量化评估

以某减水剂泄漏事件为例,采用模拟治理的方法,从小试模拟费用、电费、人工费、设备租用费、药剂费、场地租用费和污泥处置费等方面核算了泄漏混合废水的虚拟治理成本,并利用ToxScreen-II毒性分析仪对混合废水模拟治理前后急性毒性变化情况进行研究,验证了模拟治理方法的有效性,再根据受污染区域的环境功能敏感程度和事件具体情况,采用虚拟治理成本乘以相应的倍数得出了事件的生态环境损害量化数额。     

基于毕达哥拉斯模糊贝叶斯网络的海底管道泄漏风险分析*

为分析海底管道运行中存在的泄漏风险,提出1种基于毕达哥拉斯模糊数与贝叶斯网络的风险评估模型。首先,通过毕达哥拉斯模糊数转换专家定性评价,拓展专家意见模糊范围;然后,结合主客观组合赋权法,利用毕达哥拉斯梯形爱因斯坦混合几何算子（PTFEHG）实现专家意见的聚合;最后,通过贝叶斯网络的推理与敏感性分析,计算海底管道泄漏风险的失效概率,并辨识关键风险因素。研究结果表明:该方法可以结合专家意见对海底管道泄漏风险进行定量分析,并识别导致泄漏事故的关键风险因素,对海底管道安全管理具有指导意义。     

化工企业安全管理路在何方

1998年国务院机构改革,原化工部改为国家石油和化学工业局。2001年国务院再次进行机构调整,9个国家直属工业局,改为9个行业协会。行业协会主要是为企业提供信息服务的中介组织,与企业没有行政隶属关系。改革后,行业结构经历了一番新变革,原有格局被打破。在新形势下,化工企业安全生产管理存在哪些问题,如何应对?有一系列问题需要人们认真思考。     

Photodegradation of methylmercury in Jialing River of Chongqing,China

Photodegradation (PD) of methylmercury (MMHg) is a key process of mercury (Hg) cycling in water systems, maintaining MMHg at a low level in water systems. However, we possess little knowledge of this important process in the Jialing River of Chongqing, China. In situ incubation experiments were thus performed to measure temporal patterns and influencing factors of MMHg PD in this river. The results showed that MMHg underwent a net demethylation process under solar radiation in the water column, which predominantly occurred in surface waters. For surface water, the highest PD rate constants were observed in spring (12 × 10^− 3 ± 1.5 × 10^− 3 m²/E), followed by summer (9.0 × 10^− 3 ± 1.2 × 10^− 3 m²/E), autumn (1.4 × 10^− 3 ± 0.12 × 10^− 3 m²/E), and winter (0.78 × 10^− 3 ± 0.11 × 10^− 3 m²/E). UV-A radiation (320–400 nm), UV-B radiation (280–320 nm), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, 400–700 nm) accounted for 43%–64%, 14%–31%, and 16%–45% of MMHg PD, respectively. PD rate constants varied substantially with the treatments that filtered the river water and amended it with chemicals (i.e., Cl⁻, NO₃⁻, dissolved organic matter (DOM), Fe(III)), which reveals that suspended particulate matter and water components are important factors in affecting the PD process. For the entire water column, the PD rate constant determined for each wavelength range decreased rapidly with water depth. UV-A, UV-B, and PAR contributed 27%–46%, 6.2%–12%, and 42%–65% to the PD process, respectively. PD flux was estimated to be 4.7 μg/(m²·year) in the study site. Our results are very important to understand the cycling characteristics of MMHg in the Jialing River of Chongqing, China.     

6种苯系物对球等鞭金藻和新月菱形藻的生长抑制

海洋环境中苯系物污染主要来源于海洋溢油事故以及沿海石油化工企业的废水排放。为探究苯系物对海洋微藻的毒性作用,选择球等鞭金藻和新月菱形藻作为受试生物,分别考察了苯、甲苯、乙基苯、邻-二甲苯、间-二甲苯和对-二甲苯6种苯系物对2种海洋微藻生长的影响。结果表明,在0.25~64.0 mg·L-1暴露浓度下,6种苯系物对2种微藻生长具有显著的抑制作用,随着暴露浓度的升高,抑制作用明显增强。苯、甲苯、乙基苯、邻-二甲苯、间-二甲苯、对-二甲苯对球等鞭金藻的24 h的半数效应浓度(24 h-EC50)分别为:17.07、12.88、7.58、0.55、0.36、0.27 mg·L-1;对新月菱形藻的24 h-EC50值分别为:1.03、0.68、0.46、0.40、0.42、0.38 mg·L-1。上述研究结果为确定苯系物海洋环境质量标准、保护海洋生态环境提供了基础数据。     

信息量融入GA优化SVM模型下的地质灾害易发性评价

地质灾害易发性评价是防灾减灾工作部署、灾害预警以及风险管控的基础,针对评价因子在量纲、性质等方面的差异以及评价模型的适用性、准确性等问题,以陕西省子长市作为研究区,引入信息量(information value, INF)模型与遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm, GA),提出一种信息量融入GA优化支持向量机(Support Vector Machines, SVM)模型的地质灾害易发性评价方法。首先,从研究区的地形地貌、地质环境、生态环境三个方面选取坡度、坡向、河流距离、土地利用类型等9个评价因子,利用INF模型将各评价因子量纲进行统一,构建样本数据集;然后,利用GA迭代求解SVM关键参数c和g的最优值;最后,将全区点集属性数据代入训练好的模型中求解并输出子长市地质灾害易发性指数值,将该值代入ArcGIS软件得到地质灾害易发性区划图,并采用受试者工作特征(Receiver Operating Characteristic, ROC)曲线对模型预测结果的精度进行检验。结果表明：采用信息量融入GA优化SVM模型得到的子长市地质灾害易发性评价结果的准确率为93%,优于INF模型和...     

隧道围岩Vague集可拓安全评估模型

为提高公路隧道围岩分级的准确性,丰富风险评级方法,首先基于可拓物元理论,对实测数据进行无量纲化处理并转化为Vague集.然后通过AHP法和熵权法得到主客观权重,进而构建区间权重并按照隶属度与非隶属度距离最大化原则进行优化.最后建立基于Vague集的可拓安全评估模型,并结合工程项目进行案例分析,结果与实际监测数据一致.     

Integrated removal of NO and mercury from coal combustion flue gas using manganese oxides supported on TiO2

A catalyst composed of manganese oxides supported on titania(MnO_x/TiO_2) synthesized by a sol–gel method was selected to remove nitric oxide and mercury jointly at a relatively low temperature in simulated flue gas from coal-fired power plants. The physico-chemical characteristics of catalysts were investigated by X-ray fluorescence(XRF), X-ray diffraction(XRD), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy(XPS) analyses, etc. The effects of Mn loading,reaction temperature and individual flue gas components on denitration and Hg~0 removal were examined. The results indicated that the optimal Mn/Ti molar ratio was 0.8 and the best working temperature was 240°C for NO conversion. O_2 and a proper ratio of [NH_3]/[NO]are essential for the denitration reaction. Both NO conversion and Hg~0 removal efficiency could reach more than 80% when NO and Hg~0 were removed simultaneously using Mn0.8 Tiat 240°C.Hg~0 removal efficiency slightly declined as the Mn content increased in the catalysts. The reaction temperature had no significant effect on Hg~0 removal efficiency. O_2 and HCl had a promotional effect on Hg~0 removal. SO2 and NH_3were observed to weaken Hg~0 removal because of competitive adsorption. NO first facilitated Hg~0 removal and then had an inhibiting effect as NO concentration increased without O_2, and it exhibited weak inhibition of Hg~0 removal efficiency in the presence of O_2. The oxidation of Hg~0 on Mn O x/TiO_2 follows the Mars–Maessen and Langmuir–Hinshelwood mechanisms.     

微包埋恶臭假单胞菌复合填料制备及性能评价

填料是废气生物净化系统的核心组件,对净化性能有直接影响。以聚乙烯醇、海藻酸钠、腐熟植物纤维等为辅料,采用微包埋法制备出一种包埋恶臭假单胞菌复合填料,并将其装填于生物过滤塔中评价其对甲苯的净化性能。结果表明,制备的复合填料性能稳定、启动速度快、适宜微生物生长,对甲苯有较好的净化效果。生物过滤塔在空床停留时间47 s、进气负荷不高于42.00 g·(m3·h)-1的条件下,去除率可达90%以上。系统停运3 d和7 d,重新启动1 h后,去除率即可恢复至80%以上。动力学研究显示,与Michaelis-Menten模型相比,Haldane模型对使用该复合填料的生物净化过程拟合度较高。制备的复合填料理化性能好,对甲苯具有较高的净化效果,具有一定的应用前景。