Does planned retreat matter? Investigating land use change under the impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Coastal regions worldwide are during the process of rapid urban expansion. However, expanded urban settlements in land-sea interfaces have been faced with unprecedented threats from climate change related hazards. Adaptation to coastal hazards has received increasing attention from city managers and planners. Adaptation and land management practices are largely informed by remote sensing and land change modeling. This paper establishes a framework that integrates land change analysis, coastal flooding, and sea level rise adaptation. Multilayer perceptron neural network, similarity learning, and binary logistic regression were applied to analyze spatiotemporal changes of residential, commercial, and other built-up areas in Bay County, Florida, USA. The prediction maps of 2030 were produced by three models under four policy scenarios that included the population relocation strategy. Validation results reveal that three models return overall acceptable accuracies but generate distinct landscape patterns. Predictions indicate that planned retreat of residents can greatly reduce urban vulnerability to sea level rise induced flooding. While managed realignment of the coast brings large benefits, the paper recommends different mixes of adaptation strategies for different parts of the globe, and advocates the application of reflective land use planning to foster a more disaster resilient coastal community.     

Evaluation of surface water quality by using Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment Water Quality Index (CCME WQI) method and discriminant analysis method: a case study Coruh River Basin

In this study, the water quality of the Coruh River Basin, which is located in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey, was evaluated. The water quality data measurement results obtained by the State Hydraulic Works 26th Regional Directorate from four different sites over a course of 4 years between the years 2011 and 2014 in the Coruh River Basin were used as the data. In this study, the water quality was evaluated by using the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environmental Water Quality Index (CCME WQI) method and discriminant analysis (DA). The water quality of the Coruh River Basin was calculated as 30.4 and 71.35 by using the CCME WQI and classified as “poor,” “marginal,” and “fair”. These values show that the water of the Coruh River Basin is degraded and under threat and its overall quality is not close to natural or desired levels. The monitoring sites were divided into two groups by the cluster analysis (CA). DA is a multivariate analysis technique used to divide individuals or objects into different groups and assign them into predetermined groups. As a result of DA, calcium (Ca) and sulfate (SO₄) were determined to be significant parameters in the determination of the water quality of the Coruh River Basin. The success of DA depends on the percentage of correct classification. As a result of the analysis, 23% of the parameters in the first measurement point, 69.2% of the parameters in the second and third measurement points, and 76.9% of the parameters in the fourth measurement point were classified correctly. Since the second measurement point is the discharge point of a copper mine, it can be said that the water quality parameters measured may provide accurate results in detecting pollution at this point.     

Land use and land cover (LULC) of the Republic of the Maldives: first national map and LULC change analysis using remote-sensing data

The Maldives islands in recent decades have experienced dramatic land-use change. Uninhabited islands were turned into new resort islands; evergreen tropical forests were cut, to be replaced by fields and new built-up areas. All these changes happened without a proper monitoring and urban planning strategy from the Maldivian government due to the lack of national land-use and land-cover (LULC) data. This study aimed to realize the first land-use map of the entire Maldives archipelago and to detect land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) using high-resolution satellite images and socioeconomic data. Due to the peculiar geographic and environmental features of the archipelago, the land-use map was obtained by visual interpretation and manual digitization of land-use patches. The images used, dated 2011, were obtained from Digital Globe’s WorldView 1 and WorldView 2 satellites. Nine land-use classes and 18 subclasses were identified and mapped. During a field survey, ground control points were collected to test the geographic and thematic accuracy of the land-use map. The final product’s overall accuracy was 85%. Once the accuracy of the map had been checked, LULCC maps were created using images from the early 2000s derived from Google Earth historical imagery. Post-classification comparison of the classified maps showed that growth of built-up and agricultural areas resulted in decreases in forest land and shrubland. The LULCC maps also revealed an increase in land reclamation inside lagoons near inhabited islands, resulting in environmental impacts on fragile reef habitat. The LULC map of the Republic of the Maldives produced in this study can be used by government authorities to make sustainable land-use planning decisions and to provide better management of land use and land cover.     

Evaluating knowledge integration and co-production in a 2-year collaborative learning process with smallholder dairy farmer groups

Although knowledge integration and co-production are integral to transdisciplinary approaches to foster sustainable change in social–ecological systems, this type of research is usually not evaluated based on assessments of the learning process. While participants are meant to be central in such approaches, too often, their perspectives are not central to the evaluation. Moreover, there is limited empirical information about how new knowledge is transformed into action. We respond to these knowledge gaps by analyzing (A) farmers’ perspectives on the collaborative learning process and (B) how farmers’ new knowledge can serve as the basis for changed actions. Theoretically, we are guided by second-order cybernetics and have integrated the Control Loop Model with Learning Loops to extend Kirkpatrick (Evaluating training programs: the four levels, 2nd edn. Berrett-Koehler Publisher, San Francisco, 1998) four-level evaluation scheme. We apply this to evaluate a 2-year collaborative learning process with two smallholder dairy farmer groups in Nakuru County, Kenya that aimed to co-develop local sustainable pathways to reduce milk losses. Results showed that farmers learned by (1) implementing corrective actions based on known cause–effect relations (single-loop learning); (2) discovering new cause–effect relations and testing their effect (double-loop learning); and (3) further questioning and changing their aims (triple-loop learning). Highlighting the importance of knowledge integration and co-production, this collaboration between farmers, researchers, and field assistants improved the farmers’ ability to respond, adapt, and intentionally transform their farming system in relation with complex sustainability challenges. Results demonstrate that the potential of our evaluation scheme to better reflect learning and empowerment experienced by actors involved in transdisciplinary research for sustainability.     

Rates of spread of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rosa rugosa</Emphasis> (Japanese Rose) determined by GIS on a coastal sand-dune system in Northwest England

The invasive non-native shrub Rosa rugosa (Japanese Rose) is well-established in many northwest European countries where, especially on coastal sand-dunes, it forms large dominant stands with adverse effects on semi-natural vegetation and biota of high conservation status. Its recent increase in England’s largest dune system on the Sefton Coast in north Merseyside led to an investigation into its rate of spread. Using digitised aerial photographs and GIS methodology, sample patches of old-established R. rugosa were found to have grown in area by an average of 22 % per annum between 1989 and 2013. This rate of increase is comparable to that found in Denmark and higher than reported for several other woody plants in coastal dunes. In the absence of management, R. rugosa could soon dominate large areas on the Sefton Coast, with serious consequences for amenity and the nature conservation interest of the dune system.     

Species richness,structure, and conservation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nitraria retusa</Emphasis> communities in the coastal salt marshes of Kuwait

Although the coastal salt marshes of Arabian Gulf have been altered extensively by human development activities, there is a paucity of data describing changes in the distribution and abundance of native coastal plant communities. The main objectives of this study are to determine vegetation condition, size structure, and conservation status of Nitraria retusa, a medicinal and salt-tolerant shrub, in disturbed and non-disturbed coastal salt marshes of Kuwait. Size measurements of Nitraria shrubs and nabkas, which are mounds of sediment developed around shrubs, were carried out in 50 quadrats (20 × 20 m²), randomly selected inside and outside Sabah Al-Ahmad Natural Reserve. Species richness and soil properties of nabkas and interspaces, the open areas between the nabkas, were also measured. The results revealed that nabkas of Nitraria in non-disturbed sites are more stable and rich in plant diversity than those in disturbed sites. Mean height and mean canopy diameter of Nitraria shrubs, total plant cover, and species richness are significantly higher in non-disturbed sites than disturbed sites, which indicate the positive influences of conservation for long term on vegetation structure and species richness. The results of soil analyses indicate the important role of nabkas in providing refuges for plant life and species diversity. The present study indicates that more than 50 % of the N. retusa community has been lost during the last few decades. Therefore, N. retusa should be considered an endangered species in Kuwait. The reduction in vegetation cover, a decline in species richness, and the overall degradation of salt marshes are attributed to human development activities along the coast of Kuwait. Effective conservation actions for threatened species in degraded coastal salt marshes of this region include establishment of protective enclosures, prohibitions on development that adversely affects native plant communities, and the planting native salt-tolerant shrubs to facilitate regeneration.     

Gendered knowledge and adaptive practices: Differentiation and change in Mwanga District,Tanzania

We examine the wider social knowledge domain that complements technical and environmental knowledge in enabling adaptive practices through two case studies in Tanzania. We are concerned with knowledge production that is shaped by gendered exclusion from the main thrusts of planned adaptation, in the practice of irrigation in a dryland village and the adoption of fast-maturing seed varieties in a highland village. The findings draw on data from a household survey, community workshops, and key informant interviews. The largest challenge to effective adaptation is a lack of access to the social networks and institutions that allocate resources needed for adaptation. Results demonstrate the social differentiation of local knowledge, and how it is entwined with adaptive practices that emerge in relation to gendered mechanisms of access. We conclude that community-based adaptation can learn from engaging the broader social knowledge base in evaluating priorities for coping with greater climate variability.     

Food: From Commodity to Commons

Our food and farming system is not socially, economically or ecologically sustainable. Many of the ills are a result of market competition driving specialization and linear production models, externalizing costs for environmental, social and cultural degradation. Some propose that market mechanisms should be used to correct this; improved consumer choice, internalization of costs and compensation to farmers for public goods. What we eat is determined by the path taken by our ancestors, by commercialization and fierce competition, fossil fuels and demographic development. Based on those, governments and the food industry are the choice architects who determine what we eat; consumer choice plays a marginal role. Using market mechanisms to internalize cost and compensate farmers for public goods has been proposed for decades but little progress has been made. There are also many practical, ethical and theoretical objections to such a system. The market is not a good master for a sustainable food system. Instead we need to find new ways of managing the food system based on food as a right and farming as a management system of the planet Earth. The solutions should be based on relocalization of food production and de-commodification of food and our symbionts, the plants and animals we eat.     

Detecting Temporal Change in Watershed Nutrient Yields

Meta-analyses reveal that nutrient yields tend to be higher for watersheds dominated by anthropogenic uses (e.g., urban, agriculture) and lower for watersheds dominated by natural vegetation. One implication of this pattern is that loss of natural vegetation will produce increases in watershed nutrient yields. Yet, the same meta-analyses also reveal that, absent land-cover change, watershed nutrient yields vary from one year to the next due to many exogenous factors. The interacting effects of land cover and exogenous factors suggest nutrient yields should be treated as distributions, and the effect of land-cover change should be examined by looking for significant changes in the distributions. We compiled nutrient yield distributions from published data. The published data included watersheds with homogeneous land cover that typically reported two or more years of annual nutrient yields for the same watershed. These data were used to construct statistical models, and the models were used to estimate changes in the nutrient yield distributions as a result of land-cover change. Land-cover changes were derived from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Total nitrogen (TN) yield distributions increased significantly for 35 of 1550 watersheds and decreased significantly for 51. Total phosphorus (TP) yield distributions increased significantly for 142 watersheds and decreased significantly for 17. The amount of land-cover change required to produce significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions was not constant. Small land-cover changes led to significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions when watersheds were dominated by natural vegetation, whereas much larger land-cover changes were needed to produce significant shifts when watersheds were dominated by urban or agriculture. We discuss our results in the context of the Clean Water Act.     

Sperm viability staining in ecology and evolution: potential pitfalls

The causes and consequences of variation in sperm quality, survival and ageing are active areas of research in ecology and evolution. In order to address these topics, many recent studies have measured sperm viability using fluorescent staining. Although sperm viability staining has produced a number of interesting results, it has some potential pitfalls that have rarely been discussed. In the present paper, I review the major findings of ecology and evolution studies employing sperm viability staining and outline the method’s principle limitations. The key problem is that the viability assay may itself kill sperm, which is likely to confound many common experimental designs in addition to producing artificially low estimates of sperm viability. I further suggest that sperm number should be routinely measured in sperm viability studies, as it may be an important but overlooked source of spurious results. I provide methodological advice on sperm viability staining aimed at minimising artefacts and producing robust conclusions, and discuss possible avenues for future research. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.