Japan’s greenhouse gas reduction scenarios toward net zero by 2050 in the material cycles and waste management sector

The first draft scenario toward net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 for the material cycles and waste management sector was presented by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan in August 2021. The details of the future GHG emission estimation used to create the draft scenario are described in this document. For multiple scenarios where more aggressive measures, such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), were included in addition to business-as-usual and the current policy continuity scenario, future GHG emissions were estimated as the sum of the products of activities and emission factors indicating changes in measures between scenarios. The estimation outcomes demonstrated that future GHG emissions from the solid waste management sector could be anticipated to be zero or even negative when material conversion to biomass, primarily for plastics, recycling to raw materials, and installation of CCUS at incineration facilities are assumed. Extensions of prior plans are not enough to reach the goal of net zero emissions, according to the measures necessary and the volume and pace of their implementation suggested in this study. Stakeholders should collaborate with great ambition.