Educating the next generation of atmospheric scientists within a European Network of Excellence

In order to promote the next generation of atmospheric scientists, the task Training and Education (T&E) in ACCENT, the European Network of Excellence in Atmospheric Composition Change (www.accent-network.org) has developed and implemented an Integrated Learning Environment (ILE). For school teachers and their students, the Internet-based “Global Change Magazine” provides up-to-date and freely accessible scientific material in English and five other languages. Additionally, T&E has produced online teaching material for early-career scientists. These e-learning modules are now being used in University Master's courses across Europe. T&E also organised training events for early-career scientists, combining scientific content with development in transferable skills, to focus on interdisciplinary collaboration, interaction with senior scientists, communication with stakeholders, and dissemination to the general public. Evaluation based on participant feedback evidences the effectiveness of these events, e.g., in terms of motivation to remain in the field. Methodologies and materials from T&E are being published in a Handbook on Best Practice, intended for both educators and scientists around the globe who are involved in education in the field of air quality and climate change science.     

A matter of approach: the retort's potential to reduce mercury consumption within small-scale gold mining settlements in Tanzania

The mercury-based gold extraction processes prevalent within small-scale mining are both efficient and harmful. While ensuring relatively high levels of gold recovery, they cause environmental and health problems for people living within mining settlements. This mercury consumption can be minimized by using a simple mercury recycling device known as a retort. While mining legislation in Tanzania dictates the use of retorts for gold recovery, virtually no miners use them, indicating the inadequacy of previous introduction attempts. During action research, retorts were introduced in two mining settlements through a thorough and participatory approach. Twenty miners were given retorts and their attitudes and receptiveness to them were studied. Of the recipients, 18 used the retorts over a period of five months, recycling 10 kilos of mercury. Less mercury was spilled into the environment and miners saved money normally spent on purchasing mercury. The findings have implications for the strategies of development interventions targeting mercury-instigated problems within small-scale gold mining.     

Estimating carbon in savanna ecosystems: rational distribution of effort

Minimising the cost of repeatedly estimating C (C) stocks is crucial to the financial viability of projects that seek to sell C credits. Depending on the price of C, this may imply less or more sampling effort than would be applied for science objectives. In systems with heterogeneous C pools, such as savannas, this translates into a variable-effort sampling strategy that maximises the marginal additional C that can be claimed per incremental unit of effort expended. Analysis of a savanna in north-eastern South Africa indicates relatively modest returns per hectare due to the small C quantities and low sequestration rates. Under these conditions, areas in excess of 1,000 ha and infrequent sampling frequencies of 5–10 years are required to make such projects financially viable. For such projects the sample variance, number of samples, cost per sample and establishment costs have negligible impacts on financial viability. It was also found that the soil-C pool contributes up to three times the net returns of the aboveground C pool and provides a strong argument to monitor soil C for certification and market trading. The financial viability estimates, however, do not include the management or opportunity costs incurred in changing the land use. The economies of scale identified in this study combined with the massive area covered by savannas indicate that these additional costs can be covered. Further research is recommended to quantify these costs and interrogate the feasibility of large scale (in excess of 10,000 ha) C-sink projects in savanna systems.     

Carbon accumulation through ecosystem recovery

A market has emerged for carbon sequestered through reforestation. The opportunity to restore ecosystems through this market rather than establish plantations is demonstrated by an Australian case study. In the state of Queensland there are vast areas that have been cleared relatively recently and could be restored to ecosystems with high resilience and important biodiversity values with appropriate management. In order to foster opportunities for carbon accumulation through ecosystem recovery spatially explicit information on sequestration rates, management recommendations, and clear definitions of ancillary biodiversity benefits need to be defined.     

Yield response of potato to spatially patterned nitrogen application

Although crop response to nitrogen fertilization has long been studied, classical experimental designs have led to inadequate accounting of spatial variability in field properties and yield response. Analytical methods to explicitly account for spatial variability now exist but the complementary modification of experimental design is still developing. There is a need to combine these analytical methods with non-traditional experimental design. A 2-year study was implemented to assess the response of potato (Solanum tuberosum cv. Kennebec) yield to nitrogen fertilizer rate. We used a transect-type plot design where four nitrogen treatments (0, 56, 112, and 280 kg N ha^?1) were applied systematically in a continuous sinusoidal pattern along longitudinal transects. Measured field properties included topography, soil texture, pre-application soil nitrate levels, and plant available soil water content. A random field linear model was used to simultaneously account for treatment effects and soil properties. The results showed that treatment effects were significantly different from each other; however, if spatially correlated errors were accounted for, these differences were smaller and significance levels lower. Nitrogen response functions varied widely throughout the field. Of the covariates, only clay content proved important in explaining spatial differences in response to N. The sinusoidal response pattern of N was similar over the 2 years but the amplitudes varied due to differences in weather. Interactions between uncharacteristically high rainfall and a sandy field soil may have minimized discernable effects of the other covariates. The results demonstrated how the statistical analysis of potato response to a patterned application of nitrogen fertilizer can take advantage of spatial correlations to understand the response of potato to nitrogen application over larger areas.     

Modelling with uncertainty: Introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics

Predictive population models designed to assist managers and policy makers require an explicit treatment of inherent uncertainty and variability. These are particular concerns when modelling non-native and reintroduced species, when data have been collected within one geographical or ecological context but predictions are required for another, or when extending models to predict the consequences of environmental change (e.g., climate or land-use). We present an aspatial, probabilistic framework of hierarchical process models for predicting population growth even when data are sparse or of poor quality. Insight into the factors affecting population dynamics in real landscapes can be provided and Kullback–Leibler distances are used to compare the relative output of models. This flexible yet robust framework gives easily interpretable results, allowing managers as well as modellers to invalidate anomalous models and apply others to real-life scenarios.We illustrate the framework’s power with a meta-analysis of European wild boar (Sus scrofa) data. We test hypotheses about the effect of geographic region, hunting and mast years on wild boar population growth, to build models of wild boar dynamics for the UK. The framework quantifies the importance of hunting pressure as a driver of population growth, and confirms that reproductive success is greatly decreased in poor mast years, suggesting that the key to predicting wild boar dynamics is to ascertain local hunting pressure and to better understand changing food availability. Geography had no significant effect, indicating that it is not a good proxy for modelling the impact of change in climate or land-use on wild boar populations at the European scale. We use the framework to predict population abundance 9 years after an isolated population of wild boar established in the UK; in a comparison with the only field data and two independent modelling exercises, our framework provides the most robust and informative results.     

Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.