巢湖流域水资源可持续性评价方法研究

水资源可持续性评价模型(WRSEM,Water Resource Sustainability Evaluation Model)能够定量地评价流域水资源的可持续性,是流域水资源管理的一个有效工具。本文为了科学地衡量巢湖流域水资源开发、利用和管理的可持续性,构建了巢湖流域水资源可持续性评价模型和评价指标体系。巢湖流域水资源可持续性评价指标体系由4个一级指标(经济效率、社会公平、环境保护和保障能力)和20个二级指标构成。最后根据相对权重综合计算得到流域水资源可持续性指数。评价结果表明了巢湖流域水资源可持续性的程度,同时研究结果为巢湖流域水资源管理及其相关政策制定提供了科学依据。     

浙江省排污权有偿使用和交易政策法规研究

随着中国经济的高速发展和城市化进程的加快,环境资源的消耗进一步加大,环境资源面临枯竭问题已经严重影响到社会经济的可持续发展。建立排污权有偿使用与交易制度对于解决过高的环境治理成本问题具有重要作用。本文从排污权的基本法律理论入手,总结和分析我省排污权有偿使用和交易政策法规存在的问题,进而提出适合我省的政策建议,以期完善我省排污权有偿使用和交易的政策法规体系。     

Detection Method for Avian Influenza Viruses in Water

Recent events have shown that humans may become infected with some pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (AIV). Since soil and water, including lakes, rivers, and seashores, may be contaminated by AIV excreted by birds, effective methods are needed for monitoring water for emerging viruses. Combining water filtration with molecular methods such as PCR is a fast and effective way for detecting viruses. The objective of this study was to apply a convenient method for the detection of AIV in natural water samples. Distilled water and lake, river, and seawater were artificially contaminated with AIV (H5N3) and passed through a filter system. AIV was detected from filter membrane by real-time RT-PCR. The performance of Zetapor, SMWP, and Sartobind D5F membranes in recovering influenza viruses was first evaluated using contaminated distilled water. SWMP, which gave the highest virus recoveries, was then compared with a pre-filter combined GF/F filter membrane in a trial using natural water samples. In this study, the cellulose membrane SMWP was found to be practical for recovery of AIVs in water. Viral yields varied between 62.1 and 65.9% in distilled water and between 1 and 16.7% in natural water samples. The borosilicate glass membrane GF/F combined with pre-filter was also feasible in filtering natural water samples with viral yields from 1.98 to 7.33%. The methods described can be used for monitoring fresh and seawater samples for the presence of AIV and to determine the source of AIV transmission in an outbreak situation.     

Prevalence of Norovirus Infection in Children and Adults with Acute Gastroenteritis,Tehran, Iran, 2008–2009

Noroviruses are one of important agents that cause acute viral gastroenteritis worldwide. These viruses are belonging to Caliciviridae family and are genetically diverse. To date, there is no valuable data about prevalence of norovirus infection and the dominant genogroup/genotype among Iranian population. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of norovirus infection in Iranian patients with gastroenteritis referred to three hospitals of Tehran and to specify the dominant genogroup/genotype of this virus among our study population. A total of 293 patients with acute gastroenteritis were included in the study. Detection of norovirus was performed using RT-PCR method and confirmed by direct sequencing with specific designed primers for capsid region of norovirus genome. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using the neighbor-joining method. Norovirus strains identified in our study were subsequently categorized according to previously defined genogroup/genotypes. Of these, norovirus GII was dominant genogroup. Sixty-five percent (17 of 26) of positive samples were determined as GII and 35% (9 of 26) were determined as GI, respectively, in 2008–2009. And among 8 sequenced strains of genogroup II the most frequent genotype was GII.3. The results of this study indicated that norovirus must be considered as one of the infectious causes of acute gastroenteritis among Iranian population. We also found that GII.3 is more prevalent in our study population. To the best of our knowledge there is limited data about the role of noroviruses in children and adults’ acute gastroenteritis among Iranian patients and this prevalence and genotyping report of norovirus infection could be remarkable for further studies.     

中国火山地区预警政策研究

本文主要介绍了我国的活火山、火山灾害情况及国内外的火山预警政策。在此基础上讨论了我国火山地区预警政策的组成结构,认为完整的火山地区预警政策应该包括活火山识别、火山风险评价与灾害区划图、制定火山应急预案、火山防灾减灾知识宣传、火山监测和灾害预报、火山灾害预警等级划分、火山减灾工程措施以及预警响应措施等方面,并对火山预警政...     

A framework for analyzing climate change adaptations as actions

Developing generalized theories about adaptation to climate change requires common concepts to map different adaptation situations. The paper aims to contribute to this endeavor by presenting a novel framework that conceptualizes adaptations to climate change as actions. The framework is intended to systematically analyze the actor relations involved in adaptations and the barriers to their implementation. By combining established scientific action theories with terminology from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in an innovative way, it can be used to clarify the notion of adaptation used in adaptation assessments. The framework’s potential is illustrated by a case study on cooling water management in the river Rhine catchment and by the elucidation of some prominent concepts in adaptation research. We show that by framing adaptations as actions, the purpose of adaptations and how they tend to connect up in means-ends-chains becomes crucial. Actors can take different functional roles as exposure unit, operator and receptor of adaptation. A mismatch of these roles can lead to barriers to adaptation, of which we deduce four types: complex actor relations, missing operators, missing means and unemployed means. The case study yields a complex bundle of adaptations, and shows that the potential barriers involved are quite diverse. There is thus no blueprint solution. Although we identify entry points for adaptation, the analysis leads to a skeptical conclusion for adapting cooling water management in the whole Rhine catchment.     

Coastal flooding,climate change and environmental justice: identifying obstacles and incentives for adaptation in two metropolitan Boston Massachusetts communities

We explored the possible future impacts of increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise and the potential adaptation responses of two urban, environmental justice communities in the metropolitan Boston area of Massachusetts. East Boston is predominantly a residential area with some industrial and commercial activities, particularly along the coastal fringe. Everett, a city to the north of Boston, has a diversified industrial and commercial base. While these two communities have similar socioeconomic characteristics, they differ substantially in the extent to which residents would be impacted by increased coastal flooding. In East Boston, a large portion of residents would be flooded, while in Everett, it is the commercial/industrial districts that are primarily vulnerable. Through a series of workshops with residents in each community, we found that the target populations do not have an adaptation perspective or knowledge of any resources that could assist them in this challenge. Furthermore, they do not feel included in the planning processes within their communities. However, a common incentive for both communities was an intense commitment to their communities and an eagerness to learn more and become actively engaged in decisions regarding climate change adaptation. The lessons that can be applied to other studies include 1) images are powerful tools in communicating concepts, 2) understanding existing cultural knowledge and values in adaptation planning is essential to the planning process and 3) engaging local residents at the beginning of the process can create important educational opportunities and develop trust and consensus that is necessary for moving from concept to implementation.     

Capability development of local communities for project sustainability in afforestation/reforestation clean development mechanism

It has been recognized that the involvement of local community is essential to ensure the sustainability of A/R CDM (afforestation/reforestation clean development mechanism) project. This study verifies if the risks of non-permanence and leakage are addressed in a registered small scale A/R CDM project in Vietnam. Workshops, interviews, and a questionnaire survey of local villagers revealed that the project has caused a shortage of land for conventional activities such as grazing, fuel wood collection and shifting cultivation, and consequently posed the risks of project non-permanence and leakage. It is suggested that participation of all stakeholders in the community to the A/R CDM project beyond existing land tenure and adequate carbon benefit sharing according to the level of contribution to the project are required to reduce the risk of non permanence. To ensure the participation, the community should have capability such as consensus building and collective action. Leakage would be minimized if the community has alternative measures to the conventional activities before starting the project. We argue that it is necessary to first develop a community’s capabilities in the readiness phase of any A/R CDM project in order to reduce the risks for the project sustainability, and that new sources of funding are needed for this purpose.     

Building regional priorities in forests for development and adaptation to climate change in the Congo Basin

Indentifying common priorities in shared natural resource systems constitutes an important platform for implementing adaptation and a major step in sharing a common responsibility in addressing climate change. Predominated by discourses on REDD + (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries) with little emphasis on adaptation there is a risk of lack of policy measures in addressing climate change in the Congo Basin. Forest products and ecosystem services provide security portfolios for the predominantly rural communities, and play major roles in national development programmes in both revenue and employment opportunities. Thus, raising the profile of forests in the policy arena especially in the twin roles of addressing climate change in mitigation and adaptation and achieving resilient development is crucial. Within the framework of the Congo Basin Forests and Climate Change Adaptation project (COFCCA) project, science policy dialogue was conducted to identify and prioritize forest based sectors vulnerable to climate change but important to household livelihoods and national development. The goal of the prioritization process was for the development of intervention in forest as measures for climate change adaptation in Central Africa. Participants constituted a wide range of stakeholders (government, Non Governmental Organizations, research institutions, universities, community leaders, private sectors etc.) as representatives from three countries directly involved in the project: Cameroon, Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of Congo. Building on national priorities, four forest related sectors were identified as common priorities at the regional level for focus on climate change adaptation. These sectors included: (1) energy with emphasis on fuel wood and Charcoal; (2) Water principally quality, quantity, accessibility, etc.; (3) Food with emphasis on Non Timber Forest Products, and (4) Health linked to healthcare products (medicinal plants). Using these prioritized sectors, the project focused on addressing the impacts of climate change on local communities and the development of adaptation strategies in the three pilot countries of the Congo Basin region. The four sectors constitute the key for development in the region and equally considered as priority sectors in the poverty reduction papers. Focused research on these sectors can help to inject the role of forests in national and local development and their potentials contributions to climate change adaptation in national and public discourses. Mainstreaming forest for climate change adaptation into national development planning is the key to improve policy coherence and effectiveness in forest management in the region.     

基于排队论的城市垃圾箱最佳间距研究

针对城市垃圾箱最佳间距的研究不够精细的现状,本文通过建立排队论模型得到了可供不同城市参考的城市垃圾箱最佳间距参数表。通过对部分城市街道的垃圾箱摆放间距情况进行实地调查,运用层次分析法将影响垃圾箱间距分布的多重因素转化为单因素;建立了基于指数分布的教学模型,利用排队论分析单因素状态下的垃圾箱间距分布,得到了求解城市垃圾箱最佳间距的一般方法。