Comparative audit of booking and mid-trimester ultrasound scans in the prenatal diagnosis of congenital anomalies

During 1988 and 1989, 3565 women booked under consultants who performed an ultrasound scan at booking, whilst 4984 booked under consultants who performed a formal mid-trimester scan between 16 and 18 weeks. All significant anomalies diagnosed prenatally and in the neonatal period were recorded, the incidence in each group being 12.9/1000 and 9.83/1000, respectively (NS). The sensitivity of diagnosis before 20 weeks was 45 per cent in the ‘mid-trimester’ group (kappa 0.62) compared with 30 per cent in the ‘booking’ group (kappa 0.46), overall sensitivity of prenatal diagnosis, however, being similar in both groups (63 vs. 65 per cent, kappa 0.77 vs. 0.79). Cardiac anomalies were the single largest group which were not detected equally prenatally in both groups. This study shows that formal mid-trimester scanning leads to anomalies being detected significantly earlier in the antenatal period. Although not statistically significant, three lethal anomalies were missed prenatally in the ‘booking’ group which we would have expected to diagnose on a mid-trimester scan. These figures are discussed in the light of previous reports.     

A Bayesian assessment of the effect of highway bypasses in Iowa on crashes and crash rate

Introduction

A common contention is that the construction of highway bypasses negatively impacts the economy of local communities by reducing pass-by traffic for businesses. However, as access to specific business' account records is limited, this impact is difficult to quantify. Another common contention is that bypasses contribute to a reduction in overall crashes in the community and in the surrounding areas. Even though a large number of bypasses have been constructed in the State of Iowa over the past several years, their actual impact in terms of traffic safety has not been quantified.

Objectives

This study seeks answers to the following questions: (a) Are bypasses in Iowa associated with a reduction in crash frequencies and crash rates on the bypassed highway? (b) Do bypasses in Iowa introduce a reduction of overall crash frequencies and rates or do they merely shift crashes from the highways through the communities to the bypasses with no significant overall reduction?

Method

We obtained crash information from the Iowa DOT at 19 sites on which a bypass was constructed sometime during the past 23 years. We also obtained the same information at six sites used as comparison sites on which no bypasses were constructed at least until 2005. We them employed a Bayesian approach to estimating the association between the construction of the bypass and crash rates, while also accounting for other factors.

Results

The construction of bypasses in Iowa is associated with a significant increase in traffic safety both on the main road through town and on the combined main road and bypass roadway.     

On-road and simulated driving: concurrent and discriminant validation

Introduction

A converging pair of studies investigated the validity of a simulator for measuring driving performance/skill.

Study 1

A concurrent validity study compared novice driver performance during an on-road driving test with their performance on a comparable simulated driving test.

Results

Results showed a reasonable degree of concordance in terms of the distribution of driving errors on-road and errors on the simulator. Moreover, there was a significant relationship between the two when driver performance was rank ordered according to errors, further establishing the relative validity of the simulator. However, specific driving errors on the two tasks were not closely related suggesting that absolute validity could not be established and that overall performance is needed to establish the level of skill.

Study 2

A discriminant validity study compared driving performance on the simulator across three groups of drivers who differ in their level of experience - a group of true beginners who had no driving experience, a group of novice drivers who had completed driver education and had a learner's permit, and a group of fully licensed, experienced drivers.

Results

The findings showed significant differences among the groups in the expected direction -- the various measures of driving errors showed that beginners performed worse than novice drivers and that experienced drivers had the fewest errors. Collectively, the results of the concurrent and discriminant validity studies support the use of the simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes.

Impact on industry

These findings support the use of a driving simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes. Future research should continue to examine validity between on-road driving performance and performance on a driving simulator and the use of simulated driving tests in the evaluation of driver education/training programs.     

Prenatal diagnosis of gastrointestinal obstruction: A correlation between prenatal ultrasonic findings and postnatal operative findings

The impact of prenatal sonographic diagnosis of oesophageal and gastrointestinal obstructions has been analysed over a 10-year period. Three groups of patients were evaluated. The first group consisted of 46 newborns with abnormal prenatal sonogratns, 41 of which were confirmed to have intestinal obstruction postnatally. The second group consisted of 17 neonates with normal prenatal sonograms who had intestinal obstruction postnatally. The third group included 56 newborns who did not undergo a prenatal sonogram but who had intestinal obstruction confirmed at surgery. Polyhydramnios without the appearance of a stomach on ultrasound was diagnostic of pure oesophageal atresia. Polyhydramnios with intestinal dilation was diagnostic of intestinal obstruction. Although surgery was performed earlier in the infants diagnosed prenatally with ultrasound, mortality was no less than in the group that did not undergo a prenatal sonogram, probably because of the high incidence of associated anomalies.     

Expanding multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome to include Edward'S syndrome

Information on maternal age and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels was used to investigate retrospectively the effect of estimating Edward's syndrome risk in women having multi-marker screening for Down's syndrome. The screened population comprised 15 pregnancies affected by Edward's syndrome, 15 with Down's syndrome and 5472 unaffected pregnancies. The use of all three markers to estimate Edward's syndrome risk would have led to the detection of 10–12 (67–80 per cent) cases with a false-positive rate of 0.3–0.6 per cent depending on the risk cut-off. A further case would have been detected as a result of screening for Down's syndrome alone. Similar results were obtained when the Edward's syndrome risk was based on uE₃ and hCG only. These data suggest that extending Down's syndrome screening to include Edward's syndrome risk will yield a high detection rate with only a small increase in the false-positive rate.     

Serum PAPP-A measurements in first-trimester screening for Down syndrome

Serum PAPP-A measurements taken from 254 women in the first trimester are reported. Eleven chromosomal abnormalities were detected. The mean serum PAPP-A levels in cases of Down syndrome were 0.44 MOM at 9 weeks gestation, 0.15 MOM at 10 weeks, and 0.29 MOM at 11 weeks. The PAPP-A level at 10 weeks was below those of pregnancies which aborted spontaneously. At 11 weeks, the pregnancies with Down syndrome recorded the lowest PAPP-A levels at that gestation. On this small sample, offering chorionic villus sampling to women with singleton pregnancies and a PAPP-A level below 0.3 MOM (approximately 6.5 per cent of this at-risk group) would have detected all the Down syndrome fetuses at 10 weeks and 50 per cent at 11 weeks without selecting those cases destined to abort. This suggests that serum PAPP-A should continue to be investigated as a potential first-trimester screening test for Down syndrome.