Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's Concord: a community perspective

As a result of climate change, many plants are now flowering measurably earlier than they did in the past. However, some species' flowering times have changed much more than others. Data at the community level can clarify the variation in flowering responses to climate change. In order to determine how North American species' flowering times respond to climate, we analyzed a series of previously unstudied records of the dates of first flowering for over 500 plant taxa in Concord, Massachusetts, USA. These records began with six years of observations by the famous naturalist Henry David Thoreau from 1852 to 1858, continued with 16 years of observations by the botanist Alfred Hosmer in 1878 and 1888-1902, and concluded with our own observations in 2004, 2005, and 2006. From 1852 through 2006, Concord warmed by 2.4 degrees C due to global climate change and urbanization. Using a subset of 43 common species, we determined that plants are now flowering seven days earlier on average than they did in Thoreau's times. Plant flowering times were most correlated with mean temperatures in the one or two months just before flowering and were also correlated with January temperatures. Summer-flowering species showed more interannual variation in flowering time than did spring-flowering species, but the flowering times of spring-flowering species correlated more strongly to mean monthly temperatures. In many cases, such as within the genera Betula and Solidago, closely related, co-occurring species responded to climate very differently from one another. The differences in flowering responses to warming could affect relationships in plant communities as warming continues. Common St. John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) and highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) are particularly responsive to changes in climate, are common across much of the United States, and could serve as indicators of biological responses to climate change. We discuss the need for researchers to be aware, when using data sets involving multiple observers, of how varying methodologies, sample sizes, and sampling intensities affect the results. Finally, we emphasize the importance of using historical observations, like those of Thoreau and Hosmer, as sources of long-term data and to increase public awareness of biological responses to climate change.     

Improved estimates of certainty in stable-isotope-based methods for tracking migratory animals.

The use of stable-hydrogen isotopes (deltaD) has become a common tool for estimating geographic patterns of movement in migratory animals. This method relies on broad and relatively predictable geographic patterning in deltaD values of precipitation, but these patterns are not estimated without error. In addition, deltaD measurements are relatively imprecise, particularly for organic tissue. Most models for estimating geographic locations have ignored these sources of error. Common modeling approaches include regression, range-matching, and likelihood-based assignment tests (including discriminant analysis). Here, we show the benefits of a simple stochastic extension to likelihood-based assignment tests that incorporates two estimable sources of error and describe the resulting influence on the certainty of assigning breeding origins for wintering American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla), a small Nearctic-Neotropical migratory bird. Through simulation, we incorporated both spatial interpolation error associated with models of deltaD in precipitation and analytical error associated with the measurement of deltaD in tissue samples. In general, assignments that did not include these sources of error fell within the ranges of the stochastic results, but the difference in proportion of birds assigned to any one breeding region varied by as much as 54%. To explore how the distribution of assignments generated from error models influenced the application of these results, we developed a simple model of winter habitat loss. We removed the proportion of Redstarts wintering at a particular site from the global population and then used the isotope-based assignments to predict the resulting population declines for each breeding region. This gave distributions of change in population sizes, some of which included no change or even a population increase. The sources of error we modeled may challenge the degree of certainty in the use of stable-isotope-based data on connectivity to predict population dynamics of migratory animals. We suggest that stronger inference will result from incorporating these sources of error into future studies that use deltaD or other stable isotopes to infer the geographic origin of individuals.     

Effects of timber harvesting on pond-breeding amphibian persistence: testing the evacuation hypothesis.

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibians following timber harvest. However, direct evidence concerning the mechanisms of population decline is lacking and hinders attempts to develop conservation or recovery plans and solutions for forest species. We summarized the mechanisms by which abundance of amphibians may initially decline following timber harvest into three testable hypotheses: (1) mortality, (2) retreat, and (3) evacuation. Here, we tested the evacuation hypothesis within a large-scale, replicated experiment. We used drift fences with pitfall traps to capture pond-breeding amphibians moving out of experimental clearcut quadrants and into control quadrants at four replicate arrays located within the Daniel Boone Conservation Area on the upper Ozark Plateau in Warren County, Missouri, USA. During the preharvest year of 2004, only 51.6% of the 312 individuals captured were moving out of pre-clearcut quadrants, and movement did not differ from random. In contrast, during both postharvest years of 2005 and 2006, the number of captures along the quadrant edge increased, and a higher proportion of individuals (59.9% and 56.6%, respectively, by year) were moving out of clearcut quadrants than entering. Salamanders moved out of clearcuts in large percentages (Ambystoma annulatum, 78.2% in 2005, 78.2% in 2006; A. maculatum, 64.0% in 2005, 57.1% in 2006). Frogs and toads also moved out of clearcut quadrants, but in lower percentages (Bufo americanus, 59.6% in 2005, 53.3% in 2006; Rana clamitans, 52.7% in 2006). Salamanders moved out of clearcuts with low-wood treatments more than out of clearcuts with high-wood treatments. Movement of salamanders out of clearcuts was independent of sex. Estimated movement out of clearcuts represented between 8.7% and 35.0% of the total breeding adults captured for two species of salamanders. Although we recognize that some portion of the amphibian population may retreat underground for short periods and others may not survive the effects of timber harvest, these data are the first direct evidence showing that individuals are capable of leaving clearcuts and shifting habitat use.     

Scale-dependent responses of plant biodiversity to nitrogen enrichment

Experimental studies demonstrating that nitrogen (N) enrichment reduces plant diversity within individual plots have led to the conclusion that anthropogenic N enrichment is a threat to global biodiversity. These conclusions overlook the influence of spatial scale, however, as N enrichment may alter beta diversity (i.e., how similar plots are in their species composition), which would likely alter the degree to which N-induced changes in diversity within localities translate to changes in diversity at larger scales that are relevant to policy and management. Currently, it is unclear how N enrichment affects biodiversity at scales larger than a small plot. We synthesized data from 18 N-enrichment experiments across North America to examine the effects of N enrichment on plant species diversity at three spatial scales: small (within plots), intermediate (among plots), and large (within and among plots). We found that N enrichment reduced plant diversity within plots by an average of 25% (ranging from a reduction of 61% to an increase of 5%) and frequently enhanced beta diversity. The extent to which N enrichment altered beta diversity, however, varied substantially among sites (from a 22% increase to an 18% reduction) and was contingent on site productivity. Specifically, N enrichment enhanced beta diversity at low-productivity sites but reduced beta diversity at high-productivity sites. N-induced changes in beta diversity generally reduced the extent of species loss at larger scales to an average of 22% (ranging from a reduction of 54% to an increase of 18%). Our results demonstrate that N enrichment often reduces biodiversity at both local and regional scales, but that a focus on the effects of N enrichment on biodiversity at small spatial scales may often overestimate (and sometimes underestimate) declines in regional biodiversity by failing to recognize the effects of N on beta diversity.     

Fish distributions and nutrient cycling in streams: can fish create biogeochemical hotspots?

Rates of biogeochemical processes often vary widely in space and time, and characterizing this variation is critical for understanding ecosystem functioning. In streams, spatial hotspots of nutrient transformations are generally attributed to physical and microbial processes. Here we examine the potential for heterogeneous distributions of fish to generate hotspots of nutrient recycling. We measured nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) excretion rates of 47 species of fish in an N-limited Neotropical stream, and we combined these data with population densities in each of 49 stream channel units to estimate unit- and reach-scale nutrient recycling. Species varied widely in rates of N and P excretion as well as excreted N:P ratios (6-176 molar). At the reach scale, fish excretion could meet >75% of ecosystem demand for dissolved inorganic N and turn over the ambient NH4 pool in <0.3 km. Areal N excretion estimates varied 47-fold among channel units, suggesting that fish distributions could influence local N availability. P excretion rates varied 14-fold among units but were low relative to ambient concentrations. Spatial variation in aggregate nutrient excretion by fish reflected the effects of habitat characteristics (depth, water velocity) on community structure (body size, density, species composition), and the preference of large-bodied species for deep runs was particularly important. We conclude that the spatial distribution of fish could indeed create hotspots of nutrient recycling during the dry season in this species-rich tropical stream. The prevalence of patchy distributions of stream fish and invertebrates suggests that hotspots of consumer nutrient recycling may often occur in stream ecosystems.     

How experienced individuals contribute to an improvement in collective performance in ants

Certain groups of organisms are capable of improving their collective performance with experience. In a recent study, we demonstrated that, over successive emigrations, colonies of the ant Temnothorax albipennis are able to improve their collective performance by reducing the time taken to complete an emigration (Langridge et al., Behav Ecol Sociobiol 56:523–529, 2004). In this paper, by recording the performance of individually marked workers during repeated emigrations, we were able to analyse some of the ways in which time gains are achieved. We found that: (1) those transporters that also transported in the preceding emigration began to transport earlier in the current emigration and, in the majority of emigrations, transported more items than those transporters that had not transported in the preceding emigration; (2) the time that elapsed before the first item was transported into the new nest reduced over successive emigrations, and this first item was, in the majority of emigrations, carried by a transporter that had also transported in the preceding emigration; (3) the number of adults that were transported reduced over successive emigrations. Our results strongly suggest that the behaviour of transporters that also transported in a preceding emigration may be modified as a result of their experience and that, consequently, their efforts in the next emigration make a major contribution to the improved performance of the colony as a whole.     

Finding Hope in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Abstract:  Over the past quarter century, a new scientific activity has emerged: collective assessments by large numbers of scientists from different disciplines combining their expertise to better understand human interrelations with nature and to inform policy. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment exceeded all such assessments before it in both the breadth of its coverage and the depth of its analysis of socioecological system dynamics. The findings are not encouraging. Nearly all ecosystems are being degraded and will continue to be degraded for decades to come even if policy changes are initiated now. For scientists participating in the assessment, the MA had another disconcerting aspect. It clearly shows that our fragmented, disciplinary knowledges cannot simply be combined to form an understanding of a whole complex system. Counterbalancing the despair of the findings and scientific difficulties of aggregating specialized knowledges, the MA demonstrated the potential of a deliberative democratic approach to grappling with complex problems .     

Terrestrial habitat selection and strong density-dependent mortality in recently metamorphosed amphibians

To predict the effects of terrestrial habitat change on amphibian populations, we need to know how amphibians respond to habitat heterogeneity, and whether habitat choice remains consistent throughout the life-history cycle. We conducted four experiments to evaluate how the spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs, Rana sylvatica (including both overall abundance and localized density), was influenced by habitat choice and habitat structure, and how this relationship changed with spatial scale and behavioral phase. The four experiments included (1) habitat manipulation on replicated 10-ha landscapes surrounding breeding pools; (2) short-term experiments with individual frogs emigrating through a manipulated landscape of 1 m wide hexagonal patches; and habitat manipulations in (3) small (4-m2); and (4) large (100-m2) enclosures with multiple individuals to compare behavior both during and following emigration. The spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs following emigration resulted from differences in the scale at which juvenile amphibians responded to habitat heterogeneity during active vs. settled behavioral phases. During emigration, juvenile wood frogs responded to coarse-scale variation in habitat (selection between 2.2-ha forest treatments) but not to fine-scale variation. After settling, however, animals showed habitat selection at much smaller scales (2-4 m2). This resulted in high densities of animals in small patches of suitable habitat where they experienced rapid mortality. No evidence of density-dependent habitat selection was seen, with juveniles typically choosing to remain at extremely high densities in high-quality habitat, rather than occupying low-quality habitat. These experiments demonstrate how prediction of the terrestrial distribution of juvenile amphibians requires understanding of the complex behavioral responses to habitat heterogeneity. Understanding these patterns is important, given that human alterations to amphibian habitats may generate extremely high densities of animals, resulting in high density-dependent mortality.     

A risk-based screening approach for prioritizing contaminants and exposure pathways at Superfund sites

Contamination at Superfund sites can involve mixtures of chemicals and radionuclides in a variety of environmental media. Determining priorities for evaluation and remediation of various contaminants is an important part of the initial phases of any site investigation. An effective screening analysis at the beginning of the project can help by identifying both those situations in need of immediate remedial attention and those which require further sampling and evaluation. The screening approach discussed here is made up of two sets of calculations designed to provide upper- and lower-bound estimates of health risk to individuals likely to receive the highest exposures. This approach allows rapid identification of contaminants which pose a negligible risk and can be assigned a low priority for remedial attention or which pose a substantial risk and should be given the highest priority for appropriate remediation efforts. Contaminants designated as neither high- nor low-priority should be investigated in more detail prior to making decisions regarding the need for or method of remediation. The utility of this approach has already been demonstrated in the evaluation of contamination in the Clinch and Tennessee River systems originating from historical operations of atomic weapons and energy research facilities near Oak Ridge, Tennessee.     

Patchy distributions: Optimising sample size

A method for estimating sample size which does not require an a priori definition of desired precision, or the assumption that the population is normally distributed with constant variance, has recently been proposed. This paper discusses this method and presents five modifications which make the method easier to use and reduce the probability of estimating a larger sample size than is actually required. The method is extended and used to estimate the mean abundance of patchily distributed benthic organisms. The technique can be used to guide the design of any environmental sampling programme, be it physical, chemical or biological, where comparisons between times and/or locations are required. Trade-offs between numbers of replicates and numbers of levels/sites are discussed.