A COMPARISON OF HAND- AND SPLINE-DRAWN PRECIPITATION MAPS FOR MOUNTAINOUS MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Average annual precipitation for the period 1961–1990 was estimated for a mountainous region in Montana with a Laplacian thin-plate spline (ANUSPLIN) and compared to a hand-drawn map. Input data included latitude, longitude, and elevation from a three-arc-second U.S. Geological Survey Digital Elevation Model of the Bozeman and Billings 1 × 2 topographic quadrangles and precipitation data at 96 stations. The two maps are similar in appearance. Digital comparison of the two maps with ARC/INFO's Grid tools shows that mean annual precipitation for the hand-contoured map is 22.9 inches and for the ANUSPLIN map is 23.7 inches. Of the 5,760,000 cells, 53 percent showed no difference between ANUSPLIN and hand-drawn maps; 19 percent showed a two-inch difference, and 28 percent showed more than 2 inches difference. Input data and model output at the same location are not different (standard deviation 1.77, p-value 0.76). Hand-drawn maps show two inches more precipitation during the 1961–90 period than during the 1941–1970 period. Similarly, measured data at 73 sites for the period 1961–1990 are on average 2.4 inches higher than the same stations during the 1941–1970 period. The difference is significant (p-value > 0.0001).     

SMOOTHED DATA AND GRADIENTS USING SLIDING POLYNOMIALS WITH OPTIONAL CONTROLS1

ABSTRACT: Sliding polynomials differ from other piecewise interpolation and smoothing methods in their functional continuity at the nodes. This functional continuity was used to establish optional spacing of nodes and optional boundary controls in data smoothing while still maintaining mathematically continuous rates or gradients. Cyclic as well as noncyclic data can be smoothed. Variance of the individual nodal values. derived through least-squares optimization, can be calculated using the rigorously determined weighting coefficients between data points and nodes. Such nodal variances are estimates of localized uncertainty in the data which complement the localization of smoothing through use of piecewise functions. Choice of controls in smoothing and calculation of variance have been incorporated in a computer program for user convenience.     

A UNIFYING SET OF PROBABILITY TRANSFORMS FOR STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

Abstract: An ordered set of probability sensity functions was derived form transforms of the normal distribution. Variate transforms are based on orders of exponentiation. The set of distributions includes the log-normal. a partial basis for use of these functins in hydrology is demonstrated by establishing some required properties. A concept of mixed samples of zero and nonzero elements forming nonseparable sets of virtual and real elements is introduced to establish a physical lower limit of sampled diata independent of functional bounds.     

PATTERNS OF WATERSHED MONTHLY RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Two dimensional sliding polynomials were adapted to pattern analysis of watershed monthly rainfall and runoff. Contours of runoff in the two-dimensional space of time and rainfall are constructed on a grid of 16 nodes whose values are determined by least squares. This method is form free, hence derived patterns are not biased to selected functional forms, but can directly represent the smoothed data. Values of the nodes are localized averages of the data constrained by required mathematical continuity across the grid of values. An advantage of the method is that the standard deviation can be calculated for each node, thus producing patterns of uncertainty of the deterministic component revealed by the data.     

A terrain-based paired-site sampling design to assess biodiversity losses from eastern hemlock decline

Biodiversity surveys are often hampered by the inability tocontrol extraneous sources of variability introduced intocomparisons of populations across a heterogenous landscape. If not specifically accounted for a priori, this noisecan weaken comparisons between sites, and can make itdifficult to draw inferences about specific ecologicalprocesses. We developed a terrain-based, paired-sitesampling design to analyze differences in aquaticbiodiversity between streams draining eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) forests, and those draining mixedhardwood forests in Delaware Water Gap National RecreationArea (USA). The goal of this design was to minimize variancedue to terrain influences on stream communities, whilerepresenting the range of hemlock dominated streamenvironments present in the park. We used geographicinformation systems (GIS) and cluster analysis to define andpartition hemlock dominated streams into terrain types basedon topographic variables and stream order. We computedsimilarity of forest stands within terrain types and usedthis information to pair hemlock-dominated streams withhardwood counterparts prior to sampling. We evaluated theeffectiveness of the design through power analysis and foundthat power to detect differences in aquatic invertebratetaxa richness was highest when sites were paired and terraintype was included as a factor in the analysis. Precision ofthe estimated difference in mean richness was nearly doubledusing the terrain-based, paired site design in comparison toother evaluated designs. Use of this method allowed us tosample stream communities representative of park-wide forestconditions while effectively controlling for landscapevariability.     

Demography of the California Condor: Implications for Reestablishment

Abstract: The remnant wild population of California Condors ( Gymnogyps californianus ) of the 1980s exhibited a rapid population decline caused by high mortality rates among adult and immature birds. The most prominent mortality factor was lead poisoning resulting from ingestion of bullet fragments in carcasses. Successful captive breeding has allowed many birds to be released to the wild since 1992, based originally on an assumption that exposure to lead could be prevented by food subsidy. The mortality of released birds, however, has generally exceeded levels needed for population stability calculated from simple population models. Collision with overhead wires was the most frequent cause of death in releases before 1994. Lead poisoning again surfaced as a problem starting in 1997 as older birds began feeding on carcasses outside the subsidy program. Although poisonings have been treated successfully by chelation therapy in recaptured birds, food subsidy is proving an ineffective solution to lead exposure. The best long-term solution appears to be either the creation of large reserves where hunting is prohibited or the restriction of hunting to nontoxic ammunition in release areas. Until sources of lead contamination are effectively countered, releases cannot be expected to result in viable populations. In addition, problems involving human-oriented behavior have resulted in the permanent removal of many released birds from the wild. The most promising reduction in human-oriented behavior has been achieved in one release of aversively conditioned, parent-reared birds. Rigorous evaluation of the factors reducing attraction to humans and human structures has been hampered by confounding of techniques in releases. Behavioral problems could be more quickly overcome by adoption of a comprehensive experimental approach.     

Accumulation of organic and inorganic contaminants in shellfish collected in estuarine waters near Pensacola, Florida: contamination profiles and risks to human consumers

We conducted a screening level assessment of contaminants in blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) and oysters (Crassostrea virginica) from bays and bayous in the Pensacola, FL area. Tissue samples were analyzed for 17 dioxins/furans, 12 dioxin-like PCB (DL-PCBs) congeners, mercury, and various metals. Contaminant levels were compared to screening values (SV) calculated using U.S. EPA recommendations for establishing consumption advisories. All sampling locations exceeded the SV (0.098pgg(-1)) for dioxins/furans/DL-PCBs, based on a Florida-specific consumption rate (46gday(-1)). Arsenic (inorganic), mercury, cadmium, and zinc levels exceeded SVs in samples from select locations, and with the exception of mercury, these locations were generally downstream of known contaminated areas. We also assessed potential human health risks from consumption of these species. Risks to human health were greatest from consumption of crab hepatopancreas, suggesting that consumption of hepatopancreas, whether directly or indirectly, from crabs collected anywhere in the Pensacola Bay region should be avoided.     

Microbial degradation of propoxur in turfgrass soil.

This study was conducted to determine the degradation rates in turfgrass soil over a 12-month period after a single field application of propoxur and to isolate microorganisms from the soil capable of degrading the insecticide. Soil samples were collected from a turfgrass experimental site near Fort Lauderdale, FL one week before the field application of propoxur, and over a 12-month period after the field application. Mineralization rates in surface (0-15 cm depth) and subsurface (15-30 cm depth) soil samples collected before the field application were low. Mineralization in surface and subsurface samples collected 1, 6 and 8 months after the field application was much higher than for corresponding samples collected before the field application. Mineralization in the subsurface samples collected 12 months after the field application had reverted back to the similar rate for the corresponding sample collected before field application. Half-life values (t1/2) for propoxur showed similar trends to the results of mineralization. After a single application of propoxur, degradation in turfgrass soil was enhanced. Such enhancement lasted less than 12 months for the subsurface, but more than 12 months for the surface. A strain of Arthrobacter sp. capable of degrading propoxur was isolated from the soil.     

Noninvasive fetal genome sequencing: a primer

We recently demonstrated whole genome sequencing of a human fetus using only parental DNA samples and plasma from the pregnant mother. This proof-of-concept study demonstrated how samples obtained noninvasively in the first or second trimester can be analyzed to yield a highly accurate and substantially complete genetic profile of the fetus, including both inherited and de novo variation. Here, we revisit our original study from a clinical standpoint, provide an overview of the scientific approach, and describe opportunities and challenges along the path toward clinical adoption of noninvasive fetal whole genome sequencing. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.