North American vegetation model for land-use planning in a changing climate: a solution to large classification problems

Data points intensively sampling 46 North American biomes were used to predict the geographic distribution of biomes from climate variables using the Random Forests classification tree. Techniques were incorporated to accommodate a large number of classes and to predict the future occurrence of climates beyond the contemporary climatic range of the biomes. Errors of prediction from the statistical model averaged 3.7%, but for individual biomes, ranged from 0% to 21.5%. In validating the ability of the model to identify climates without analogs, 78% of 1528 locations outside North America and 81% of land area of the Caribbean Islands were predicted to have no analogs among the 46 biomes. Biome climates were projected into the future according to low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios of three General Circulation Models for three periods, the decades surrounding 2030, 2060, and 2090. Prominent in the projections were (1) expansion of climates suitable for the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mexico, (2) expansion of climates typifying desertscrub biomes of western USA and northern Mexico, (3) stability of climates typifying the evergreen-deciduous forests of eastern USA, and (4) northward expansion of climates suited to temperate forests, Great Plains grasslands, and montane forests to the detriment of taiga and tundra climates. Maps indicating either poor agreement among projections or climates without contemporary analogs identify geographic areas where land management programs would be most equivocal. Concentrating efforts and resources where projections are more certain can assure land managers a greater likelihood of success.     

How long can fisheries management delay action in response to ecosystem and climate change?

Sustainable management of fisheries is often compromised by management delaying implementation of regulations that reduce harvest, in order to maintain higher catches in the short-term. Decreases or increases in fish population growth rate driven by environmental change, including ecosystem and climate change, affect the harvest that can be taken sustainably. If not acted on rapidly, environmental change could result in unsustainable fishing or missed opportunity for higher catches. Using simulation models of harvested fish populations influenced by environmental change, we explore how long fisheries managers can afford to wait before changing harvest regulations in response to changes in population growth. If environmental change causes population declines, delays greater than five years increase the probability of population collapse. Species with fast and highly variable population growth rates are more susceptible to collapse under delays and should be a priority for revised management where delays occur. Generally, the long-term cost of delay, in terms of lost fishing opportunity, exceeds the short-term benefits of overfishing. Lowering harvest limits and monitoring for environmental change can alleviate the impact of delays; however, these measures may be more costly than reducing delays. We recommend that management systems that allow rapid responses to population growth changes be enacted for fisheries management to adapt to ecosystem and climate change.     

Use of DNA barcoding to reveal species composition of convenience seafood

Increased education of consumers can be an effective tool for conservation of commercially harvested marine species when product labeling is accurate and allows an informed choice. However, generic labeling (e.g., as white fish or surimi) and mislabeling of seafood prevents this and may erode consumer confidence in seafood product labels in general. We used DNA barcoding to identify the species composition of two types of convenience seafood (i.e., products processed for ease of consumption): fish fingers (long pieces of fish covered with bread crumbs or batter, n = 241) and seafood sticks (long pieces of cooked fish, n = 30). In products labeled as either white fish or surimi, four teleost species were present. Less than 1.5% of fish fingers with species-specific information were mislabeled. Results of other studies show substantially more mislabeling (e.g., >25%) of teleost products, which likely reflects the lower economic gains associated with mislabeling of convenience seafood compared with whole fillets. In addition to species identification, seafood product labels should be required to contain information about, for example, harvesting practices, and our data indicate that consumers can have reasonable confidence in the accuracy of the labels of convenience seafood and thus select brands on the basis of information about current fisheries practice.     

Assessment of cropland inundation due to the operation of the Reelfoot Lake spillway in West Tennessee

Running Reelfoot Bayou (RRB) is the outlet canal of Reelfoot Lake, the largest natural lake in Tennessee. RRB is not able to contain discharge from Reelfoot Lake greater than the bankfull discharge of 28 m³/s (1000 ft³/s), which typically occurs at the beginning of the growing season (April–June). Historically, the planting of crops has been delayed until flooding subsides and cropland has drained. The objective of this study is a preliminary quantification of cropland inundation to determine its spatial distribution in the RRB floodplain. Inundated croplands in the RRB floodplain were delineated over a range of spillway discharges from 2 to 57 m³/s (70–2000 ft³/s), using one-dimensional–two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling and multispectral satellite images (Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2). The composite maps made by combining the simulated and image-derived flood maps were overlaid on the United States Department of Agriculture CropScape layer to determine the inundation of individual summer crops during the growing season. About 25% of the inundated croplands are flooded at discharges of RRB less than 28 m³/s, implying wetland hydrology. The results of this analysis can be used to inform operational management of the Reelfoot Lake spillway.     

Equity trade‐offs in conservation decision making

Conservation decisions increasingly involve multiple environmental and social objectives, which result in complex decision contexts with high potential for trade‐offs. Improving social equity is one such objective that is often considered an enabler of successful outcomes and a virtuous ideal in itself. Despite its idealized importance in conservation policy, social equity is often highly simplified or ill‐defined and is applied uncritically. What constitutes equitable outcomes and processes is highly normative and subject to ethical deliberation. Different ethical frameworks may lead to different conceptions of equity through alternative perspectives of what is good or right. This can lead to different and potentially conflicting equity objectives in practice. We promote a more transparent, nuanced, and pluralistic conceptualization of equity in conservation decision making that particularly recognizes where multidimensional equity objectives may conflict. To help identify and mitigate ethical conflicts and avoid cases of good intentions producing bad outcomes, we encourage a more analytical incorporation of equity into conservation decision making particularly during mechanistic integration of equity objectives. We recommend that in conservation planning motivations and objectives for equity be made explicit within the problem context, methods used to incorporate equity objectives be applied with respect to stated objectives, and, should objectives dictate, evaluation of equity outcomes and adaptation of strategies be employed during policy implementation.     

Sedimentation rate of settleable particulate matter in Santiago city,Chile

Settleable particulate matter (SPM) is an atmospheric pollutant harmful to human health and the environment in high concentrations. Despite this fact, no up‐to‐date information on SPM levels exists for the capital of Chile, Santiago (7 million inhabitants). To address this knowledge gap, SPM sedimentation rates, including soluble and insoluble components, were measured at three different urban sites from July to November of 2016. We compare the measurements with ambient and meteorological information, as well as urban typology settings. Our results indicate SPM deposition rates between 2.5 and 3.9 g/(m²·30 days). Only one site exceeded the national limit of 4.5 g/(m²·30 days), but we found an increasing trend in all three sites. SPM and its insoluble sedimentation rates increased during warm and dry months and presented significant correlations with meteorological parameters. The highest sedimentation rates were measured at the location with the least permeable surfaces and the lowest green spaces, while the lowest sedimentation rates were found in the sites with abundant green spaces and permeable soil. No significant differences were detected in the soluble components. Our results suggest that SPM levels in Santiago are close to the national limit and may increase with climate change and urban expansion.     

Geospatial Method to Map Potential Risk of Stormwater Thermal Pollution

Thermal pollution is a growing concern as communities strive to protect and improve the nation's waters. The purpose of this study was to develop and analyze a geospatial model that predicts the relative risk of contribution of thermal energy to surface runoff throughout an urban watershed. A geospatial‐based solution could serve as a screening method or planning element, prior to or instead of the development of a more complex simulation of mass‐load transport of thermal energy. The study's theoretical methodology integrated the thermal potential of land cover and thermal decay due to overland travel to inlets. The resulting thermal pollution potential (TPP) index value was then assigned to individual model grid cells for comparison. Analysis of results from application to a case study watershed in Blacksburg, Virginia, indicated the computational methodology is not very sensitive to changes in spatial resolution. The thermal decay constant used in the analysis was varied, and results indicated a low sensitivity to selection of this parameter. A comparison between methods of watershed delineation also indicated use of infrastructure‐corrected watershed delineation yields better results than derivation from automated techniques. The geospatial method presented may be used to reproduce a TPP risk map to prioritize thermal pollution mitigation efforts.     

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species’ distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species’ geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point‐locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo‐Malaya into equal‐area half‐degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human‐dominated landscapes. In Indo‐Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human‐dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species’ ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species’ distribution most vulnerable to threat.     

Constraints and capacities for novel livelihood adaptation: lessons from agricultural adoption in an African dryland pastoralist system

Regional Environmental Change - Climate change, land use change, and sociopolitical and institutional transitions in African drylands have resulted in the loss, fragmentation, and degradation of...     

A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways

Regional Environmental Change - Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall...