A Regional Classification Scheme for Estimating Reference Water Quality in Streams Using Land-Use-Adjusted Spatial Regression-Tree Analysis

Various approaches are used to subdivide large areas into regions containing streams that have similar reference or background water quality and that respond similarly to different factors. For many applications, such as establishing reference conditions, it is preferable to use physical characteristics that are not affected by human activities to delineate these regions. However, most approaches, such as ecoregion classifications, rely on land use to delineate regions or have difficulties compensating for the effects of land use. Land use not only directly affects water quality, but it is often correlated with the factors used to define the regions. In this article, we describe modifications to SPARTA (spatial regression-tree analysis), a relatively new approach applied to water-quality and environmental characteristic data to delineate zones with similar factors affecting water quality. In this modified approach, land-use-adjusted (residualized) water quality and environmental characteristics are computed for each site. Regression-tree analysis is applied to the residualized data to determine the most statistically important environmental characteristics describing the distribution of a specific water-quality constituent. Geographic information for small basins throughout the study area is then used to subdivide the area into relatively homogeneous environmental water-quality zones. For each zone, commonly used approaches are subsequently used to define its reference water quality and how its water quality responds to changes in land use. SPARTA is used to delineate zones of similar reference concentrations of total phosphorus and suspended sediment throughout the upper Midwestern part of the United States.     

Range-restricted, specialist Bornean butterflies are less likely to recover from ENSO-induced disturbance

The forest fires induced by the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1997-1998 resulted in the temporary extirpation of more than 100 lowland butterfly species at a forest site in Borneo. Species with more restricted ranges were less likely to recover over the following four years. Matched-pair analyses revealed that species with lower initial abundances, restricted geographic ranges, and more specialized larvae were less likely to return. Specialization differed predictably between the (more generalist) wide-range and (more specialized) restricted-range species in our data set, and both geographic range and level of specialization were important in multivariate models. These are the first observations directly linking extent of occurrence, ecological specialization, and observed recovery following local extirpation. If recovery time exceeds the frequency of disturbance, local extirpation can lead to local extinction. Given that ENSO-induced disturbances are increasing in frequency, in severity, and in geographic scale, these results suggest that specialist species with restricted geographic ranges could be at particularly high risk of global extinction.     

Heavy metals in zooplankton from the Southern Baltic

Samples of zooplankton and suspended matter were collected using a Bongo net (0.33/0.50 mm mesh net), and Nucleopore filters, respectively, from the Southern Baltic off Poland. Major classes of zooplankton, and selected heavy metals (Fe, Co, Ni, Mn, Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn, Cr) were determined in the collected samples. Concentrations of heavy metals in zooplankton were corrected for metals contributed by particulate matter adhering to zooplankton organisms. Heavy metals levels measured in nearshore samples (Bay of Gdańsk, Pomeranian Bay) were higher than those in the samples from the open sea. The only exception was cadmium exhibiting larger concentrations in the offshore as compared to the nearshore samples (0.8 vs. 1.3 microg/g d.w.). This was attributed to decreased concentrations, of both dissolved and particulate cadmium, caused by algal bloom. Larger concentrations of heavy metals in the Bay of Gdańsk in comparison with the Pomeranian Bay (e.g. Cd-1.3 vs. 0.8 microg/g, Cu-20.5 vs. 8.3 microg/g, Pb-12.9 vs. 1.2 microg/g, Cr-12.4 vs. 1.4 microg/g) were attributed to the direct discharge of the Vistula river to the Bay of Gdańsk, while the Pomeranian Bay receives the Odra river runoff indirectly, via the Szczecin Lagoon. The nonlinear estimation of the data set was used to evaluate concentrations of heavy metals in Copepoda and Cladocera. Copepoda proved to be enriched with heavy metals in comparison with Cladocera.     

Changed vegetation composition in coniferous forests near to motorways in Southern Germany: the effects of traffic-born pollution

To estimate the effect of traffic emissions on the vegetation composition of coniferous forests near to motorways, three transects of 520 m length were studied by analysing vegetation composition, soil parameters and deposition data in the Munich-area, Southern Germany. The detected patterns suggest that motorways have an impact on the vegetation composition in the neighbourhood of roads. Depending on the wind direction, the influences of the motorways reaches up to 230 m on downwind side and up to 80 m on upwind side. The vegetation is mainly affected by the deposition of nitrogen deriving from fuel combustion and by basic substances added to road salt. By monitoring vegetation changes near to motorways, it is possible to estimate the areas where harmful alterations of the ecosystem can be expected.     

Enhanced learning from multi-stakeholder partnerships: Lessons from the Enabling Rural Innovation in Africa programme

Despite increasing interest and support for multi‐stakeholder partnerships, empirical applications of participatory evaluation approaches to enhance learning from partnerships are either uncommon or undocumented. This paper draws lessons on the use of participatory self‐reflective approaches that facilitate structured learning on processes and outcomes of partnerships. Such practice is important to building partnerships, because it helps partners understand how they can develop more collaborative and responsive ways of managing partnerships. The paper is based on experience with the Enabling Rural Innovation (ERI) in Africa programme. Results highlight the dynamic process of partnership formation and the key elements that contribute to success. These include: (i) shared vision and complementarity, (ii) consistent support from senior leadership; (iii) evidence of institutional and individual benefits; (iv) investments in human and social capital; (v) joint resources mobilization. However, key challenges require coping with high staff turnover and over‐commitment, conflicting personalities and institutional differences, high transaction costs, and sustaining partnerships with the private business sector. The paper suggests that institutionalizing multi‐stakeholder partnerships requires participatory reflective practices that help structure and enhance learning, and incrementally help in building the capacity of research and development organisations to partner better and ultimately to innovate.     

Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?

Over the last few years, many studies have presented the real options valuation (ROV) as a promising technique of valuing natural resource investments under conditions of uncertainty. Apart from the common conclusion that the ROV is better than the conventional net present value (NPV) method in integrating the value of management flexibility and proper handling of cash flows risk, there is a lack of procedures for testing the usefulness and advantages of the ROV over the static NPV method in practice. Arguably, it is not yet clear whether the ROV can deal with the complexity of mining projects and whether it can really be applied to make decisions that improve project value.     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

Effect of Recycling on Material Properties of Glass-filled Polyethylene Terephthalate

Recycled plastics are considered low performance materials because their properties are expected to decrease drastically with recycling. The objective of this study was to characterize a 15 wt.% glass filled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET-15GF) using six recycle generations and four recycle ratios. Mechanical properties such as tensile strength, elastic modulus, and percent elongation to failure of the PET composite were determined for various recycle generations and recycle ratios. Results show that the mechanical properties of rPET-15GF decrease slightly per recycle generation. In contrast, thermal properties of rPET-15GF were not at all affected by the recycling process. This data demonstrates that recycled glass filled PET can be used effectively to fabricate components without significantly affecting their mechanical performance.