Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios

This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources and other scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models and systems-engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the range for projected population increase in the world, across the scenarios in the database, is the smallest of all main driving forces (about a factor of 3 in 2100). The range of economic growth, measured by the gross world product, and the range of primary energy consumption vary by a factor of 10 in 2100. Carbon intensity of energy, an indicator of the degree of technological change, varies by nearly two orders of magnitude in the year 2100. In addition, this paper presents the first attempt to analyze the relationships among the main scenario driving forces. Subsequent papers in this special issue give further analyses of the relationships among the main scenario driving forces and their other relevant characteristics.     

Kinetics of heterogeneous ozone reactions

Earlier results on ozone destruction on solid surfaces gave apparent first order kinetics. Estimating the reaction kinetics from our data on ozone destruction on various powders (silica-gel, alumina, wood ash, coal ash, Saharan sand, calcite), we found that only calcite and wood ash exhibited such a behaviour. Removal of ozone by other powders used showed two straight lines in ln c-t plot with two different half-lives, t'(1/2) < t'(1/2). Comparing the kinetic constants for ozone removal on silica-gel and that of ozone reactions with polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) adsorbed in submonolayer coverage on the same powder, the first reaction seems to be more likely in the case of pyrene and particularly fluoranthene. Enhanced ozone destruction on airborne aerosols could be an additional reason for fluoranthene stability in the real atmosphere.     

Investigation of interactions between surface water and petroleum-type pollutants

Background, Aims and Scope In oil spill investigations, one of the most important steps is a proper choice of approaches that imply an investigation of samples taken from different sedimentary environments, samples of oil contaminants taken in different periods of time and samples taken at different distances from the oil spill. In all these cases, conclusion on the influence of the environment, microorganisms or migration on the oil contaminants' composition can be drawn from the comparison of chemical compositions of the investigated contaminants. However, in case of water contaminants, it is very important to define which part of organic matter has been analyzed. Namely, previous investigations showed that there were some differences in chemical composition of the same oil contaminant depending on the intensity of its contact with ground water. The aim of this work is to define more precisely the interactions between oil contaminant and water, i.e. the influence of the intensity of interaction between the oil contaminant and water on its chemical composition. The study was based on a comparison of four fractionated extracts of an oil pollutant, after they had been analyzed in details. Methods Oil polluted surface water (wastewater canal, Pančevo, Serbia) was investigated. The study was based on a comparison of four extracts of an oil contaminant: extract 1 (decanted part), and extracts 2, 3 and 4 (extracted by shaking for 1 minute, 5 minutes and 24 hours, respectively). The fractionated extracts were saponified with a solution of KOH in methanol, and neutralized with 10% hydrochloric acid. The products were dissolved in a mixture of dichloromethane and hexane, and individually fractionated by column chromatography on alumina and silica gel (saturated hydrocarbon, aromatic, alcohol and fatty acid fractions). n-Alkanes and isoprenoid aliphatic alkanes, polycyclic alkanes of sterane and triterpane types, alcohols and fatty acids were analyzed using gas chromatography (GC) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). δ13CPDB values of individual n-alkanes in the aliphatic fractions were determined using gas chromatography-isotope ratio monitoring-mass spectrometry (GC-irmMS). Results and discussion. Extracts 1 and 2 are characterized by uniform distribution of n-alkanes, whereas extract 3 is characterized by an even-numbered members dominating the odd-ones, and extract 4 showed a bimodal distribution. Extract 1 is characterized by the least negative δ13CPDB values of C19-C26 n-alkanes. Sterane and triterpane analysis confirmed that all extracts originated from the same oil contaminant. n-Fatty acids, C19-C24, in all extracts are very low, being somewhat higher in extract 4. Even-numbered n-alcohols, C12–C16, were identified in the highest concentration in extract 3. It was assumed that algae were responsible for the composition of extract 3. Furthermore, a possible reason for higher concentrations of C19–C26 n-alkanes and C19–C24 fatty acids in extract 4 is the formation of inclusion compounds with colloidal micelles formed between the oil contaminant's NSO-compounds and water. Conclusion It was undoubtedly confirmed that there were specific differences in the compositions of the different extracts depending on the intensity of the interaction between the oil contaminant and the surface water. Recommendation and Outlook. When comparing the composition of oil contaminants from different water samples (regardless of the ultimate investigation goal) it is necessary to compare the extracts isolated under the same conditions, in other words, extracts that were in the same or very similar interaction with water.     

Calcium chloride and calcium bromide aqueous solutions of technical and analytical grade in Lemna bioassay

Saturated water solutions of calcium chloride, calcium bromide and their 1:1 mixture are commonly used as "high density brines" for pressure control in oil wells. To compare the effect of these chemicals of technical grade with the effect of the chemicals of analytical grade the Lemna test was used. The multiplication rate, fresh weight, dry to fresh weight ratio, area covered by plants and chlorophyll content were measured as toxicity parameters. The concentrations of tested chemicals were 0.025, 0.05. 0.075 and 0.1 mol dm(-3). Generally, the chemicals of both technical and analytical grade in concentrations of 0.025 mol dm(-3) stimulated the Lemna minor growth, while tested chemicals in concentrations of 0.05 mol dm(-3) did not affect the growth significantly. The exceptions were results obtained by measuring fresh weight. Most of tested chemicals in concentrations of 0.075 mol dm(-3) and all chemicals in concentrations of 0.1 mol dm(-3) reduced the growth. No major differences between effects of tested chemicals of technical and analytical grade on plant growth were observed, except that tested chemicals of analytical grade in concentrations of 0.1 mol dm(-3) increased dry to fresh weight ratio much stronger than chemicals of technical grade. All tested chemicals in all concentrations increased chlorophyll content. After treatment with chemicals of analytical grade much higher increase of chlorophyll a concentration in comparison to increase of chlorophyll b was noticed, while chemicals of technical grade caused more prominent increase of chlorophyll b.     

Two-compartment model of radionuclide accumulation into marine organisms. I. Accumulation from a medium of constant activity

The interpretation of kinetics of radionuclide accumulation into biological organisms can be performed by using the well-known multicompartment models. The application of a two-compartment model in the interpretation of radionuclide accumulation into marine organisms, when this does not markedly deplete the medium, is considered. It has been found that most of the loss experiments cannot be interpreted without the use of uptake data. The agreement between the uptake and loss parameters is discussed. Explicit expressions for different kinds of two-compartment models are evaluated. The interpretation of irreversible and other special cases is proposed.     

Radon survey in the high natural radiation region of Niska Banja, Serbia

A radon survey has been carried out around the town of Niska Banja (Serbia) in a region partly located over travertine formations, showing an enhanced level of natural radioactivity. Outdoor and indoor radon concentrations were measured seasonally over the whole year, using CR-39 diffusion type radon detectors. Outdoor measurements were performed at 56 points distributed over both travertine and alluvium sediment formations. Indoor radon concentrations were measured in 102 living rooms and bedrooms of 65 family houses. In about 50% of all measurement sites, radon concentration was measured over each season separately, making it possible to estimate seasonal variations, which were then used to correct values measured over different periods, and to estimate annual values. The average annual indoor radon concentration was estimated at over 1500 Bq/m3 and at about 650 Bq/m3 in parts of Niska Banja located over travertine and alluvium sediment formations, respectively, with maximum values exceeding 6000 Bq/m3. The average value of outdoor annual radon concentration was 57 Bq/m3, with a maximum value of 168 Bq/m3. The high values of indoor and outdoor radon concentrations found at Niska Banja make this region a high natural background radiation area. Statistical analysis of our data confirms that the level of indoor radon concentration depends primarily on the underlying soil and building characteristics.     

Cosmic radiation dose in aircraft--a neutron track etch detector

Cosmic radiation bombards us at high altitude by ionizing particles. The radiation environment is a complex mixture of charged particles of solar and galactic origin, as well as of secondary particles produced in interaction of the galactic cosmic particles with the nuclei of atmosphere of the Earth. The radiation field at aircraft altitude consists of different types of particles, mainly photons, electrons, positrons and neutrons, with a large energy range. The non-neutron component of cosmic radiation dose aboard ATR 42 and A 320 aircrafts (flight level of 8 and 11 km, respectively) was measured with TLD-100 (LiF:Mg,Ti) detectors and the Mini 6100 semiconductor dosimeter. The estimated occupational effective dose for the aircraft crew (A 320) working 500 h per year was 1.64 mSv. Other experiments, or dose rate measurements with the neutron dosimeter, consisting of LR-115 track detector and boron foil BN-1 or 10B converter, were performed on five intercontinental flights. Comparison of the dose rates of the non-neutron component (low LET) and the neutron one (high LET) of the radiation field at the aircraft flight level showed that the neutron component carried about 50% of the total dose. The dose rate measurements on the flights from the Middle Europe to the South and Middle America, then to Korea and Japan, showed that the flights over or near the equator region carried less dose rate; this was in accordance with the known geomagnetic latitude effect.