Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

A method to estimate the impact of clear-cutting on nutrient concentrations in boreal headwater streams

Large-scale forestry operations, like clear-cutting, may impair surface water quality if not done with environmental considerations in mind. Catchment and country level estimates of nutrient loads from forestry are generally based on specific export values, i.e., changes in annual exports due to the implemented forestry operations expressed in kg ha⁻¹. We introduce here a specific concentration approach as a method to estimate the impact of clear-cutting on nutrient concentrations and export in headwater streams. This new method is potentially a more dynamic and flexible tool to estimate nutrient loads caused by forestry, because variation in annual runoff can be taken into account in load assessments. We combined water quality data from eight boreal headwater catchment pairs located in Finland and Sweden, where the effect of clear-cutting on stream water quality has been studied experimentally. Statistically significant specific concentration values could be produced for total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and phosphate. The significant increases in the concentrations of these nutrients occurred between 2 and 6 years after clear-cutting. Significant specific concentration values could not be produced for total phosphorus and total organic carbon with the whole dataset, although in some single studies significant increases in their concentrations after clear-cutting were observed. The presented method enables taking into account variation in runoff, temporal dynamics of effects, and the proportional size of the treated area in load calculations. The number of existing studies considering large site-specific variation in responses to clear-cutting is small, and therefore further empirical studies are needed to improve predictive capabilities of the specific concentration values.     

Screening risk areas for sediment and phosphorus losses to improve placement of mitigation measures

Identification of vulnerable arable areas to phosphorus (P) losses is needed to effectively implement mitigation measures. Indicators for source (soil test P, STP), potential mobilization by erosion (soil dispersion), and transport (unit-stream power length-slope, LS) risks were used to screen the vulnerability to suspended solids (SS) and P losses in two contrasting catchments regarding topography, soil textural distribution, and STP. Soils in the first catchment ranged from loamy sand to clay loam, while clay soils were dominant in the second catchment. Long-term SS and total P losses were higher in the second catchment in spite of significantly lower topsoil STP. A higher proportion of areas in the second catchment were identified with higher risk due to the significantly higher risk of overland flow generation (LS) and a significantly higher mobilization risk in the soil dispersion laboratory tests. A simple screening method was presented to improve the placement of mitigation measures.     

Long-term effects on nitrogen and benthic fauna of extreme weather events: Examples from two Swedish headwater streams

Climate change is expected to cause an increased frequency of extreme events such as heavy floods and major storms. Such stochastic events have an immediate impact on surface water quality, but the long-term effects are largely unknown. In this study, we assess long-term monitoring data from two Swedish headwater catchments affected by extreme weather events. At one site, where nitrogen effects in soil water, groundwater, and stream water were studied after storm-felling and subsequent forest dieback from bark beetle attack, long-term (>5 years) but relatively modest (generally <1 mg L^?1) increases in ammonium (NH₄-N) and nitrate (NO₃-N) concentrations were observed in the various aqueous media. At the other site, where effects on benthic fauna were studied in a stream impacted by extreme geophysical disturbances caused by rainstorm-induced flashflood, only short-term (1 year) effects were revealed both regarding diversity and composition of species.     

Phytoscreening and phytoextraction of heavy metals at Danish polluted sites using willow and poplar trees

The main purpose of this study was to determine typical concentrations of heavy metals (HM) in wood from willows and poplars, in order to test the feasibility of phytoscreening and phytoextraction of HM. Samples were taken from one strongly, one moderately, and one slightly polluted site and from three reference sites. Wood from both tree species had similar background concentrations at 0.5 mg kg^?1 for cadmium (Cd), 1.6 mg kg^?1 for copper (Cu), 0.3 mg kg^?1 for nickel (Ni), and 25 mg kg^?1 for zinc (Zn). Concentrations of chromium (Cr) and lead (Pb) were below or close to detection limit. Concentrations in wood from the highly polluted site were significantly elevated, compared to references, in particular for willow. The conclusion from these results is that tree coring could be used successfully to identify strongly heavy metal-polluted soil for Cd, Cu, Ni, Zn, and that willow trees were superior to poplars, except when screening for Ni. Phytoextraction of HMs was quantified from measured concentration in wood at the most polluted site. Extraction efficiencies were best for willows and Cd, but below 0.5 % over 10 years, and below 1?‰ in 10 years for all other HMs.     

Assessing the Potential for Salmon Recovery via Floodplain Restoration: A Multitrophic Level Comparison of Dredge-Mined to Reference Segments

Pre-restoration studies typically focus on physical habitat, rather than the food-base that supports aquatic species. However, both food and habitat are necessary to support the species that habitat restoration is frequently aimed at recovering. Here we evaluate if and how the productivity of the food-base that supports fish production is impaired in a dredge-mined floodplain within the Yankee Fork Salmon River (YFSR), Idaho (USA); a site where past restoration has occurred and where more has been proposed to help recover anadromous salmonids. Utilizing an ecosystem approach, we found that the dredged segment had comparable terrestrial leaf and invertebrate inputs, aquatic primary producer biomass, and production of aquatic invertebrates relative to five reference floodplains. Thus, the food-base in the dredged segment did not necessarily appear impaired. On the other hand, we observed that off-channel aquatic habitats were frequently important to productivity in reference floodplains, and the connection of these habitats in the dredged segment via previous restoration increased invertebrate productivity by 58%. However, using a simple bioenergetic model, we estimated that the invertebrate food-base was at least 4× larger than present demand for food by fish in dredged and reference segments. In the context of salmon recovery efforts, this observation questions whether additional food-base productivity provided by further habitat restoration would be warranted in the YFSR. Together, our findings highlight the importance of studies that assess the aquatic food-base, and emphasize the need for more robust ecosystem models that evaluate factors potentially limiting fish populations that are the target of restoration.     

Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.     

Effects of Trampling Limitation on Coastal Dune Plant Communities

Sandy coastlines are sensitive ecosystems where human activities can have considerable negative impacts. In particular, trampling by beach visitors is a disturbance that affects dune vegetation both at the species and community level. In this study we assess the effects of the limitation of human trampling on dune vegetation in a coastal protected area of Central Italy. We compare plant species diversity in two recently fenced sectors with that of an unfenced area (and therefore subject to human trampling) using rarefaction curves and a diversity/dominance approach during a two year study period. Our results indicate that limiting human trampling seems to be a key factor in driving changes in the plant diversity of dune systems. In 2007 the regression lines of species abundance as a function of rank showed steep slopes and high Y-intercept values in all sectors, indicating a comparable level of stress and dominance across the entire study site. On the contrary, in 2009 the regression lines of the two fenced sectors clearly diverge from that of the open sector, showing less steep slopes. This change in the slopes of the tendency lines, evidenced by the diversity/dominance diagrams and related to an increase in species diversity, suggests the recovery of plant communities in the two fences between 2007 and 2009. In general, plant communities subject to trampling tended to be poorer in species and less structured, since only dominant and tolerant plant species persisted. Furthermore, limiting trampling appears to have produced positive changes in the dune vegetation assemblage after a period of only two years. These results are encouraging for the management of coastal dune systems. They highlight how a simple and cost-effective management strategy, based on passive recovery conservation measures (i.e., fence building), can be a quick (1–2 years) and effective method for improving and safeguarding the diversity of dune plant communities.     

A Framework for Assessing Collaborative Capacity in Community-Based Public Forest Management

Community-based collaborative groups involved in public natural resource management are assuming greater roles in planning, project implementation, and monitoring. This entails the capacity of collaborative groups to develop and sustain new organizational structures, processes, and strategies, yet there is a lack of understanding what constitutes collaborative capacity. In this paper, we present a framework for assessing collaborative capacities associated with community-based public forest management in the US. The framework is inductively derived from case study research and observations of 30 federal forest-related collaborative efforts. Categories were cross-referenced with literature on collaboration across a variety of contexts. The framework focuses on six arenas of collaborative action: (1) organizing, (2) learning, (3) deciding, (4) acting, (5) evaluating, and (6) legitimizing. Within each arena are capacities expressed through three levels of social agency: individuals, the collaborative group itself, and participating or external organizations. The framework provides a language and set of organizing principles for understanding and assessing collaborative capacity in the context of community-based public forest management. The framework allows groups to assess what capacities they already have and what more is needed. It also provides a way for organizations supporting collaboratives to target investments in building and sustaining their collaborative capacities. The framework can be used by researchers as a set of independent variables against which to measure collaborative outcomes across a large population of collaborative efforts.     

The Importance of Temporal and Spatial Vegetation Structure Information in Biotope Mapping Schemes: A Case Study in Helsingborg,Sweden

Temporal and spatial vegetation structure has impact on biodiversity qualities. Yet, current schemes of biotope mapping do only to a limited extend incorporate these factors in the mapping. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the application of a modified biotope mapping scheme that includes temporal and spatial vegetation structure. A refined scheme was developed based on a biotope classification, and applied to a green structure system in Helsingborg city in southern Sweden. It includes four parameters of vegetation structure: continuity of forest cover, age of dominant trees, horizontal structure, and vertical structure. The major green structure sites were determined by interpretation of panchromatic aerial photographs assisted with a field survey. A set of biotope maps was constructed on the basis of each level of modified classification. An evaluation of the scheme included two aspects in particular: comparison of species richness between long-continuity and short-continuity forests based on identification of woodland continuity using ancient woodland indicators (AWI) species and related historical documents, and spatial distribution of animals in the green space in relation to vegetation structure. The results indicate that (1) the relationship between forest continuity: according to verification of historical documents, the richness of AWI species was higher in long-continuity forests; Simpson’s diversity was significantly different between long- and short-continuity forests; the total species richness and Shannon’s diversity were much higher in long-continuity forests shown a very significant difference. (2) The spatial vegetation structure and age of stands influence the richness and abundance of the avian fauna and rabbits, and distance to the nearest tree and shrub was a strong determinant of presence for these animal groups. It is concluded that continuity of forest cover, age of dominant trees, horizontal and vertical structures of vegetation should now be included in urban biotope classifications.