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411.
Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Nicola Lugeri Rutger Dankers Yukiko Hirabayashi Petra Döll Iwona Pińskwar Tomasz Dysarz Stefan Hochrainer Piotr Matczak 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2010,15(7):641-656
Flood damages have exhibited a rapid upward trend, both globally and in Europe, faster than population and economic growth.
Hence, vigorous attempts of attribution of changes have been made. Flood risk and vulnerability tend to change over many areas,
due to a range of climatic and nonclimatic impacts whose relative importance is site-specific. Flooding is a complex phenomenon
and there are several generating mechanisms, among others intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, ice jam. Projected
climate-driven changes in future flood frequency are complex, depending on the generating mechanism, e.g., increasing flood
magnitudes where floods result of heavy rainfall and possibly decreasing magnitudes where floods are generated by spring snowmelt.
Climate change is likely to cause an increase of the risk of riverine flooding across much of Europe. Projections of flood
hazard in Europe based on climatic and hydrological models, reviewed in this paper, illustrate possible changes of recurrence
of a 100-year flood (with probability of exceedance being 1-in-100 years) in Europe. What used to be a 100-year flood in the
control period is projected to become either more frequent or less frequent in the future time horizon of concern. For a large
part of the continent, large flooding is projected to become more commonplace in future, warmer climate. Due to the large
uncertainty of climate projections, it is currently not possible to devise a scientifically-sound procedure for redefining
design floods (e.g. 100-year flood) in order to adjust flood defenses. For the time being, we recommend to adjust design floods
using a “climate change factor” approach. 相似文献
412.
Stefan Hellstrand 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2006,8(3):351-373
The concept of sustainable development is forcing standard economic analysis to acknowledge and address the existence of dimensions
of performance, which are not reducible to monetary accounting. In particular, the implementation of this concept in practice
requires: (a) the simultaneous handling of indicators developed in different disciplinary fields; and (b) an approach more
related to the procedures adopted by consultants (Participatory Integrated Analysis), rather than theoretical academic analysis
looking for ‘the’ optimal solution. The case study considered in this paper is a multi-criteria analysis of changes, which
occurred in the Swedish milk production sector for the period 1989–1999. Multi-criteria impact matrices and multi-criteria
representations are used to provide a transparent method of integrated analysis. Changes are characterized and quantified
in a way that makes it possible to relate the impact of existing trends in relation to different sub-objectives (variation
in performance in relation to social, economic and ecological indicators). The results of this analysis confirm a few well
known predicaments of sustainability associated with agriculture. The growth of Sweden economy is driving a major increase
in material throughputs within its agricultural sector. The need of increasing agricultural throughput (especially labour
productivity) has moved the Swedish dairy sector in a clear situation of decreasing marginal return ( = large increases in
inputs are not reflected in a proportional increase in output). Therefore, sound policies of development of this sector aimed
at increasing the goal of sustainability have to be developed by considering several indicators of performance, and not only
economic variables. 相似文献
413.
414.
Joep P. M. Geraedts Joyce Harper Peter Braude Karen Sermon Anna Veiga Luca Gianaroli Noelle Agan Santiago Munné Sue Gitlin Elisabeth Blenow Kylie de Boer Nicole Hussey Emmanuel Kanavakis Soo-Huan Lee Stéphane Viville Lewis Krey Pierre Ray Serena Emiliani Yung Hsien Liu Stefan Vermeulen 《黑龙江环境通报》2001,21(12):1086-1092
An Erratum has been published for this article in Prenatal Diagnosis 22 (5) 2002, 451. Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) requires the combined efforts of geneticists and workers in the field of reproductive medicine. This was studied on the basis of a questionnaire, sent to 35 members of the PGD Consortium of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE). A reply was obtained from 20 centres. They represent the majority of activities in the field of PGD in the world. It is obvious that many of the activities (in vitro fertilisation, embryo culture and biopsy) take place in IVF units while others (counselling and diagnosis) are the responsibility of genetic diagnostic centres. The distances between both units vary considerably. In all but one centre sex determination is offered. Aneuploidy screening is offered in 13 out of 20 centres. PGD of translocations and other structural chromosome abnormalities is offered in all but one centre. The number of monogenic diseases offered varies considerably. In comparison to prenatal diagnosis PGD is more expensive. The majority of these costs are due to the IVF or ICSI procedure. The charges for PGD vary between about € 600 and € 4000. In 16 out of 20 centres the parents to be must sign an informed consent form. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
415.
Are older workers more active copers? Longitudinal effects of age‐contingent coping on strain at work 下载免费PDF全文
This study addresses coping processes as explanation of age‐related differences in strain experience. Based on the life‐span theory of control, we posit that older workers employ more active problem‐focused and more active emotion‐focused coping strategies than younger workers, which should mediate age effects on strain at work. The correlation between age and passive avoidance coping, in contrast, is expected to be qualified by external resources such as job control. Hypotheses were tested in a two‐wave panel study (8 months lag) with 634 workers (age range 16–65 years). Job demands were considered as control variables. As predicted, older as compared with younger workers reported more active problem‐focused coping, which mediated age differences on strain in the longitudinal analysis. No mediation was found for active emotion‐focused coping. Moreover, age‐contingent effects of passive avoidance coping were moderated by job control. When job control was low, younger as compared with older workers reported more avoidance coping, which in turn decreased strain in the longitudinal analysis. Finally, reverse longitudinal effects of age‐contingent strain on active problem‐focused and active emotion‐focused coping provide initial evidence for age‐contingent resource spirals. Together, the results reveal specific strengths of older workers for stress management at work. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
416.
Raymond Caroline Samuelsson Göran S Agrenius Stefan Schaanning Morten T Gunnarsson Jonas S 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2021,28(13):16181-16197
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The sediments in the Grenland fjords in southern Norway are heavily contaminated by large emissions of dioxins and mercury from historic industrial... 相似文献
417.
Thomas Schinko Reinhard Mechler Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2017,22(7):1063-1086
Despite considerable uncertainties regarding the exact contribution of anthropogenic climate change to disaster risk, rising losses from extreme events have highlighted the need to comprehensively address climate-related risk. This requires linking climate adaptation to disaster risk management (DRM), leading to what has been broadly referred to as climate risk management (CRM). While this concept has received attention in debate, important gaps remain in terms of operationalizing it with applicable methods and tools for specific risks and decision-contexts. By developing and applying a methodological approach to CRM in the decision context of sovereign risk (flooding) in Austria we test the usefulness of CRM, and based on these insights, inform applications in other decision contexts. Our methodological approach builds on multiple lines of evidence and methods. These comprise of a broad stakeholder engagement process, empirical analysis of public budgets, and risk-focused economic modelling. We find that a CRM framework is able to inform instrumental as well as reflexive and participatory debate in practice. Due to the complex interaction of social–ecological systems with climate risks, and taking into account the likelihood of future contingent climate-related fiscal liabilities increasing substantially as a result of socioeconomic developments and climate change, we identify the need for advanced learning processes and iterative updates of CRM management plans. We suggest that strategies comprising a portfolio of policy measures to reduce and manage climate-related risks are particularly effective if they tailor individual instruments to the specific requirements of different risk layers. 相似文献
418.
419.
Stefan Hellstrand 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2013,15(4):999-1036
This paper discusses the role of animal production systems in a sustainable society; sustainability problems within animal production systems; and four measures for the improvement of the contribution to societal sustainability from animal production. Substantial potentials for improvements are identified that were not previously known. The methodological basis is multi-criteria multi-level analysis within integrated assessment where elements in Impredicative Loop Analysis are integrated with management tools in Swedish agriculture and forestry developed during thousands of years, during which the well-being of the Swedish society and its economic and military power were functions of the land-use skill. The issue—the sustainability footprint of global animal production—is complex and available data are limited. The Swedish case is used as a starting point for an analysis of international relevance. Data from FAO and OECD support the relevance of extrapolating results from the Swedish case to level. The four measures are (i) decrease the consumption of chicken meat in developed nations with 2.6 kg per capita and year; (ii) develop the capacity of ruminants to produce high-quality food from otherwise marginal agroecosystems; (iii) improve milk production per cow with a factor four on global level; and (iv) increase feeding efficiency in milk production globally would substantially improve the societal contribution in terms of increased food supply and decreased pressure on land. The impact of measures (i), (iii) and (iv) on increased global food security was estimated to in total 1.8 billion people in terms of protein supply and a decreased pressure on agricultural land of 217 million ha, of which 41 relate to tropical forests. The 41 million ha of tropical land are due to a decreased demand on soymeal, where this represents more than a halving of total area now used for the production of soymeal. These impacts are of the character either or. The quality of the measures is as first-time estimates, supporting choices of where to direct further efforts in analysis. Two areas were identified as critical for achieving this potential: Feeding strategies to dairy cows as well as methods commonly used to evaluate the sustainability contribution of animal production needs adjustment, so that they comply with the “laws” of diminishing returns, Liebig’s “law” of the minimum and Shelford’s “law” of tolerance, that is, in agreement with well-known principles for efficient natural resource management and the priorities of UN Millennium Development Goals. If not, global food security is at risk. 相似文献
420.