Assessing cancer incidence in a small community

Many small communities are concerned about health effects from environmental pollutants. One such community, Orwell, in Oswego County, New York, was investigated to determine if the level of cancer was significantly high in comparison to the county and the state. A pilot health study was administered among residents living in a defined area. Results of the survey demonstrated that cancer incidence was higher than both Oswego County and New York State, while cancer mortality was higher for men and lower for woman. A closer examination of the data showed that the way in which health surveys are usually analyzed may not be appropriate for small communities. In particular, some parametric statistics, such as chi-square analysis, might show significant differences between populations when standardized incidence and mortality rates are derived from small samples, yet standard deviations calculated from these data are so large as to cast doubt on the analysis. Researchers have discussed this problem theoretically, but empirical studies illustrating the difficulties have not heretofore appeared in the published literature. For health studies in small communities, greater consideration should be given to risk ratios and the implications of standard deviations.     

Biological monitoring of a pulp and paper mill wastewater

The physico-chemical testing required under the E.P.A. licence enables one to gauge the chemical effects of the APM wastewater on the Latrobe River, but it tells us nothing about likely effects on the aquatic biota. The APM bio-monitoring programme was instigated to provide evidence of any effects of wastewater discharges on the rivers biota. To date the programme has shown no adverse impact downstream. The laboratory bioassays on fish and algae have recently given way to the river fauna surveys as the regular monitor of wastewater quality. It is intended to continue with regular river surveys using the river's residents as indicators of water quality and future surveys will investigate reasons for the presently obscure variation in macro-invertebrate populations.     

Analysis of the Threshold and Expected Coverage Approaches to the Probabilistic Reserve Site Selection Problem

Two approaches to formulating the reserve site selection problem when species occurrence data is probabilistic were solved for terrestrial vertebrates in a small set of potential reserve sites in Oregon. The expected coverage approach, which maximizes the sum of the occurrence probabilities, yielded solutions that covered more species on average in Monte Carlo simulations than the threshold approach, which maximizes the number of species for which the occurrence probability exceeds some threshold.     

Aerial Monitoring of Marine Waterfowl in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea

The purpose of this study was to design and test a monitoring protocol for marine waterfowl in the central Alaskan Beaufort Sea. The study provides an important case-study of how a long-term monitoring program may be affected by unanticipated human disturbances.Because of its overwhelming and widespread abundance, relatively sedentary behavior, ease in counting, and the extensive historical database, the long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis) was selected as the focal species. Two null hypotheses were formulated concerning potential changes in the numbers and distribution of long-tailed ducks in relation to disturbance in an industrial study area, compared to a reference study area located about 50 km to the east.A 9-year historical database (1977–1984, 1989) of long-tailed duck densities and other important data recorded during systematic aerial surveys was analyzed retrospectively using multiple regression techniques. The retrospective analyses determined which of several predictor variables recorded were significantly related to long-tailed duck density. Separate analyses were conducted for two periods: (1) the overall period when long-tailed ducks were present in the lagoon study areas, and (2) the shorter adult male molt period. The results of the two analyses indicated that 57% and 68%, respectively, of the total variation in long-tailed duck density during the two periods could be explained by variables recorded during the surveys. Predictor variables representing habitat, day of the year, time of day, amount of ice, and wave height recorded on-transect during surveys were most closely associated with long-tailed duck density. Measurement error during the surveys, and influences outside the study area such as nesting success in tundra habitats and mortality during migration and in over-wintering areas likely also had strong influences on the results, but these factors were not measurable in our study.Based on results of the retrospective analyses, a long-term monitoring protocol consisting of a program of systematic aerial surveys and an analyses of variance and covariance (ANOVA and ANCOVA) statistical procedure was designed and initially tested in 1990 and 1991. This 2-year testing phase resulted in several revisions to the monitoring protocol. Refinements were made to the original sampling procedures, to the survey schedule, and to the recommended statistical analysis procedures. Results of the ANOVA and ANCOVA indicated that there was no evidence of a change in long-tailed duck densities that could be attributable to disturbance (from any source) in the industrial study area relative to a reference area with no industrial development. Other analyses indicated that the sampling and analysis procedures would be adequate to detect long-term trends in long-tailed duck density and localized disturbance effects, but that the monitoring program should be continued well beyond two years to detect statistically significant changes. As a result, additional aerial surveys of both study areas were conducted again during 1999–2001.Results of the revised ANOVA and ANCOVA of the 1990–1991 and 1999–2001 survey data indicated that the density of long-tailed ducks had significantly declined in coastal lagoons along the central Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast during the study period. In addition, disturbances throughout the barrier island-lagoon systems used by these ducks, including both the industrial and the reference study areas, had significantly increased over the same period. However, because unanticipated disturbances from a variety of anthropogenic sources, and not just industry sources, increased in both study areas, the reference study area was not an effective statistical control. As a result, the decline in long-tailed duck density in both study areas was not attributable to industry-related activities. Although the monitoring protocol described here is an effective method to detect statistically significant changes in long-tailed duck distribution and abundance in the nearshore Alaskan Beaufort Sea, many more years of sampling would be necessary to attribute observed changes to industry-related disturbances.     

Evaluation of a fluorometric method for measuring low concentrations of ammonia in ambient air

A fluorometric method developed for measuring low concentrations of ammonium in marine and freshwater ecosystems was adapted for the analysis of ammonia in ambient air. The modified method entails collection of samples on an acid-treated solid adsorbent followed by analysis using a fluorometer. Optimal results were obtained using a commercially available sorbent tube containing 100 mg of acid-treated silica gel for sample collection, and an analytical protocol consisting of sample desorption in DI water, addition of orthopthaldialdehyde (OPA) working reagent, and room temperature incubation. Method accuracy and precision were evaluated by comparing experimentally determined quantities of ammonia to expected levels for sample loadings ranging from 0.16 [micro sign]g to 550 [micro sign]g-accuracy was generally within +/-20%. The estimated LOQ for the method is 0.08 [micro sign]g ammonia per sample which represents a 25-375-fold improvement in sensitivity compared to current NIOSH and OSHA methods for the measurement of ammonia in ambient air. The new method should be useful for applications requiring measurement of low concentrations of ammonia using personal sampling equipment or in the characterization of short-term fluctuations of ammonia concentrations in air.     

Sediment Contamination, by Habitat, in the Tampa Bay Estuarine System (1993–1999): PAHs, Pesticides and PCBs

More than 760 Tampa Bay (Florida, U.S.A.) sediment samples have been analyzed for organic contaminants (PAHs, organochlorine pesticides, and PCBs) since 1993. Data were analyzed to assess status by habitat (defined by overlapping salinity zones and sediment type). The habitats most degraded by PAHs and pesticides were generally located in lower salinity, fine-grained sediment habitats, which are typically confined to the Hillsborough River. PCB contamination was more common in mesohaline waters of the Palm and Hillsborough rivers. Higher salinity portions of the bay, where medium to coarse sand-sized sediments predominate, showed little evidence of contamination by PAHs, PCBs and pesticides other than lindane.     

International CO2 emissions targets and timetables: An analysis of the AOSIS proposal

In this paper, we use a two-region version of the CETA model to analyze international CO₂ emission control policies. The policies we consider are all substantially equivalent to a policy recently proposed by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). The AOSIS proposal requires the OECD alone to reduce emissions, while the alternatives we consider achieve equivalent reductions via emission rights traded (1) between regions, (2) between time periods, or (3) both. We find that tradeable rights systems provide significant overall cost savings relative to the AOSIS proposal. Cost reductions may be roughly 60% for rights tradeable between regions, 50% for rights tradeable between time periods, and 95% for rights tradeable between regions and time periods. The benefits of these cost reductions accrue to both the OECD and the Rest of the World. Our results underscore the importance of using an efficient policy to achieve any given atmospheric concentration objective.     

PREDICTING THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE OF SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: One of the biggest challenges in managing cold water streams in the Midwest is understanding how stream temperature is controlled by the complex interactions among meteorologic processes, channel geometry, and ground water inflow. Inflow of cold ground water, shade provided by riparian vegetation, and channel width are the most important factors controlling summer stream temperatures. A simple screening model was used to quantitatively evaluate the importance of these factors and guide management decisions. The model uses an analytical solution to the heat transport equation to predict steady‐state temperature throughout a stream reach. The model matches field data from four streams in southwestern Wisconsin quite well (typically within 1°C) and helps explain the observed warming and cooling trends along each stream reach. The distribution of ground water inflow throughout a stream reach has an important influence on stream temperature, and springs are especially effective at providing thermal refuge for fish. Although simple, this model provides insight into the importance of ground water and the impact different management strategies, such as planting trees to increase shade, may have on summer stream temperature.     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF WOOD IN HEADWATER STREAMS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

This paper synthesizes information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of wood in small streams in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. The literature on this topic is somewhat confused due to a lack of an accepted definition of what constitutes “small” streams and what is the relative size of woody debris contained within the channel. This paper presents a matrix that defines woody debris relative to channel size and then discusses the components of a wood budget. Headwater streams are in close proximity to wood sources and, in steeplands, are often tightly constrained by steep hillslopes. Special consideration is given to ecosystem characteristics and to management practices that affect the wood dynamics in this context. Knowledge gaps and uncertainties that can be used to guide future research are identified. Very little is currently known about the role of mass wasting in wood recruitment and storage relative to other processes, such as bank erosion and mortality, in larger streams. Further, very little work has addressed the relative importance of different wood depletion processes, especially those associated with wood transport. The effect of other ecosystem variables on wood dynamics locally across a watershed (from valley bottom to mountaintop) and regionally across the landscape (from maritime to continental climates) is not addressed. Finally, the scientific community has only begun to deal with the effects of management practices on wood quantity, structure, and movement in small streams.     

ASSESSING SATELLITE‐BASED AND AIRCRAFT‐BASED THERMAL INFRARED REMOTE SENSING FOR MONITORING PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIVER TEMPERATURE1

One central issue affecting the health of native fish species in the Pacific Northwest is water temperature. In situ observation methods monitor point temperatures, while thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing captures spatial variations. Satellite‐based TIR sensors have the ability to view large regions in an instant. Four Pacific Northwest river reaches were selected to test the ability of both satellite‐based and moderate resolution aircraft‐based TIR remote sensing products to measure river temperatures. Images with resolutions of 5, 15, and 90 meters were compared with instream temperature observations to assess how along stream radiant temperatures are affected by resolution, reach width, and sensor platform. Where the stream reach can be resolved by the sensor, all sensors obtain water temperatures within ±2°C of instream observations. Along stream temperature variations of up to ±5°C were also observed. Trends were similar between two sets of TIR images taken several hours apart, indicating that the sensors are observing actual temperature patterns from the river surface. If sensor resolution is sufficient to obtain fully resolved water pixels in the river reach, accurate temperatures and spatial patterns can be observed. The current generation of satellite‐based TIR sensors is, however, only able to resolve about 6 percent of all Washington reaches listed as thermally impaired.