Population Trends and the Koala Conservation Debate

Abstract: A critical issue affecting the long-term management of koalas is their perceived conservation status. Koalas still occur in many areas throughout their historical range, but numbers of animals are estimated to vary from <100,000 to at least one order of magnitude higher. Complex factors limit free-ranging koala populations, including food tree preferences, history of disturbance, and Chlamydia infection, all of which make longer-term population trends of many populations difficult to predict. Lack of consensus regarding the size and viability of remaining populations and regarding the extent of and reasons for decline, overabundance or in some instances, hinders the conservation task. A reappraisal of population trends suggests that, notwithstanding localized management issues in Victoria and South Australia, overall the species is "vulnerable" on the basis of current World Conservation Union criteria. Recommendations for more effective conservation of koalas include (1) acknowledging the legitimacy of differing perspectives, (2) recognizing the uncertainty and assumptions inherent in population estimates and trends, (3) applying greater rigor and developing better standards for monitoring population trends, and (4) being cautious in assigning conservation status to national, state, and regional populations.     

Relevance of rangeland degradation in semiarid northeastern South Africa to the nonequilibrium theory.

According to the nonequilibrium theory, livestock grazing has a limited effect on long-term vegetation productivity of semiarid rangelands, which is largely determined by rainfall. The communal lands in northeastern South Africa contain extensive degraded areas which have been mapped by the National Land Cover (NLC) program. Much evidence suggests that long-term heavy grazing is the cause of this degradation. In order to test for the prevalence of nonequilibrium dynamics, we determined the relative effects of rainfall- and grazing-induced degradation on vegetation productivity. The vegetation production in the NLC degraded areas was estimated using growth-season sums of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (sigmaNDVI), calculated using data from both the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (1985-2003) and Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (2000-2005). On average, rainfall and degradation accounted for 38% and 20% of the AVHRR sigmaNDVI variance and 50% and 33% of the MODIS sigmaNDVI variance, respectively. Thus, degradation had a significant influence on long-term vegetation productivity, and therefore the rangelands did not behave according to the nonequilibrium model, in which grazing is predicted to have a negligible long-term impact.     

Comparison of larval fish assemblages in three large estuarine systems, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

 The structure of the larval fish assemblages in three large estuarine systems on the KwaZulu-Natal coast of South Africa was examined using a combination of univariate, distributional and multivariate techniques. The database was comprised of a full annual set of larval fish samples taken from each estuarine system: Durban Harbour, Richards Bay Harbour and St Lucia Estuary. The mean monthly densities of each species in each system were used in the species matrix, and the mean monthly values of salinity, temperature and turbidity were used in the environmental matrix. The mean species diversity and evenness index were significantly higher in Durban Harbour (H′ = 1.03, J′ = 0.65) than in the other two systems. The cumulative dominance curve showed that St Lucia Estuary has a high dominance of a few species, with Richards Bay Harbour intermediate and Durban Harbour being the most diverse. Classification and MDS (multiple-dimensional scaling) analyses of larval fish densities in all three systems grouped together into three main clusters on the basis of system. The species similarity matrix (inverse analysis) clustered into five groups at the 25% similarity level. The MDS analysis of the same matrix showed that the groups separated out according to the degree of estuarine association of a species and hence habitat type. The species most responsible for system groupings were: Glossogobius callidus, Gilchristella aestuaria, Stolephorus holodon, Croilia mossambica and Gobiid 12. The “best fitting” of the environmental variables to explain the larval fish community patterns in each system was turbidity on its own (weighted Spearman's rank correlation, ρ_w = 0.55). The relationship of larval densities to environmental conditions was shown to be species-specific with estuarine species (e.g. G. callidus and G. aestuaria), having a strong positive correlation with temperature and turbidity but negative correlations with salinity. In summary, much longer term studies with more sites within each system are needed to assess whether the larval fish assemblages are stable or at an equilibrium (both spatially and temporally) and whether these assemblages are indicative of the relative “health” and nursery function of the system. Received: 28 April 1999 / Accepted: 30 May 2000     

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR KARST AQUIFERS: (1) ESTIMATING KARST CONDUIT-FLOW PARAMETERS

Quantitative ground-water tracing of conduit-dominated karst aquifers allows for reliable and practical interpretation of karst ground-water flow. Insights into the hydraulic geometry of the karst aquifer may be acquired that otherwise could not be obtained by such conventional methods as potentiometric-surface mapping and aquifer testing. Contamination of karst aquifers requires that a comprehensive tracer budget be performed so that karst conduit hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters be obtained. Acquisition of these parameters is necessary for estimating contaminant fate-and-transport. A FORTRAN computer program for estimating total tracer recovery from tracer-breakthrough curves is proposed as a standard method. Estimated hydraulic-flow parameters include mean residence time, mean flow velocity, longitudinal dispersivity, Peclet number, Reynolds number, and Froude number. Estimated geometric parameters include karst conduit sinuous distance, conduit volume, cross-sectional area, diameter, and hydraulic depth. These parameters may be used to (1) develop structural models of the aquifer, (2) improve aquifer resource management, (3) improve ground-water monitoring systems design, (4) improve aquifer remediation, and (5) assess contaminant fate-and-transport. A companion paper demonstrates the use of these hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters in a surface-water model for estimating contaminant fate-and-transport in a karst conduit. Two ground-water tracing studies demonstrate the utility of this program for reliable estimation of necessary karst conduit hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters.