NONLINEAR MODELING AND PREDICTION OF A RIVER FLOW SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Model estimation and prediction of a river flow system are investigated using nonlinear system identification techniques. We demonstrate how the dynamics of the system, rainfall, and river flow can be modeled using NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenuous input) models. The parameters of the model are estimated using an orthogonal least squares algorithm with intelligent structure detection. The identification of the nonlinear model is described to represent the relationship between local rainfall and river flow at Enoree station (inputs) and river flow at Whitmire (output) for a river flow system in South Carolina.     

Coupled effects of treated effluent irrigation and wetting-drying cycles on transport of triazines through unsaturated soil columns

The physical and chemical parameters controlling the movement of atrazine (6-chloro-N2-ethyl-N4-isopropyl-l,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine; 98.8%) and prometryn [N,N'-bis(1-methylethyl)-6-(methylthio)-l,3,5triazine-2,4-diamine; 99.5%] were investigated in columns infiltrated with treated effluent under unsaturated transient conditions and subjected to drying events at 22 or 60 degrees C followed by rewetting. Three soils varying in soil pH and texture and three solutions were used. The infiltrating solutions consisted of either a CaCl2 matrix (CC), a swine waste-derived lagoon effluent (SW), or a simulated buffer solution (SB) representative of the element composition and pH of the SW but with no dissolved organic matter. Several parameters were monitored including leachate triazine concentrations, pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), inorganic carbon, and flow rates. Compared with CC, application of SW and SB increased column leachate pH, enhanced dissolution of organic carbon and particle dispersion, and decreased average flow rates, which allowed for increased desorption time. The coupled effect of these processes enhanced movement of triazines in some cases, with SW generally having the greatest effect. The individual effect of increased pH was more pronounced for prometryn (pKa=4.05) versus atrazine (pKa=1.66), and most dramatic for the soil with the lowest initial pH. High-temperature drying, which simulated intensive evaporation, further enhanced the dissolution of soil organic matter and the reduction in leachate flow rates with SW and SB applications; however, the net effect under the experimental conditions employed varied with soil type. Relative to low-temperature drying, high-temperature drying in the silty clay loam-packed columns reduced pesticide migration.     

The Interactive Effects of Fire and Diversity on Short-Term Responses of Ecosystem Processes in Experimental Mediterranean Grasslands

We conducted a field experiment using constructed communities to test whether species richness contributed to the maintenance of ecosystem processes under fire disturbance. We studied the effects of diversity components (i.e., species richness and species composition) upon productivity, structural traits of vegetation, decomposition rates, and soil nutrients between burnt and unburnt experimental Mediterranean grassland communities. Our results demonstrated that fire and species richness had interactive effects on aboveground biomass production and canopy structure components. Fire increased biomass production of the highest-richness communities. The effects of fire on aboveground biomass production at different levels of species richness were derived from changes in both vertical and horizontal canopy structure of the communities. The most species-rich communities appeared to be more resistant to fire in relation to species-poor ones, due to both compositional and richness effects. Interactive effects of fire and species richness were not important for belowground processes. Decomposition rates increased with species richness, related in part to increased levels of canopy structure traits. Fire increased soil nutrients and long-term decomposition rate. Our results provide evidence that composition within richness levels had often larger effects on the stability of aboveground ecosystem processes in the face of fire disturbance than species richness per se.     

Nitrite formation and nitrous oxide emissions as affected by reclaimed effluent application

The effect of irrigation with reclaimed effluent (RE) (after secondary treatment) on the mechanisms and rates of nitrite formation, N2O emissions, and N mineralization is not well known. Grumosol (Chromoxerert) soil was incubated for 10 to 14 d with fresh water (FW) and RE treated with 15NO3- and 15NH4+ to provide a better insight on N transformations in RE-irrigated soil. Nitrite levels in RE-irrigated soil were one order of magnitude higher than in FW- irrigated soil and ranged between 15 to 30 mg N kg(-1) soil. Higher levels of NO2- were observed at a moisture content of 60% than at 70% and 40% w/w. Nitrite levels were also higher when RE was applied to a relatively dry Grumosol (20% w/w) than at subsequent applications of RE to soil at 40% w/w. Isotopic labeling indicated that the majority of NO2 was formed via nitrification. The amount of N2O emitted from RE-treated Grumosol was double the amount emitted from FW treatments at 60% w/w. Nitrification was responsible for about 42% of the emissions. The N20 emission from the RE-treated bulk soil (passing a 9.5-mm sieve) was more than double the amount formed in large aggregates (4.76-9.5 mm in diameter). No dinitrogen was detected under the experimental conditions. Results indicate that irrigation with secondary RE stimulates nitrification, which may enhance NO3 leaching losses. This could possibly be a consequence of long-term exposure of the nitrifier population to RE irrigation. Average gross nitrification rate estimates were 11.3 and 15.8 mg N kg(-1) soil d(-1) for FW- and RE-irrigated bulk soils, respectively. Average gross mineralization rate estimates were about 3 mg N kg(-1) soil d(-1) for the two water types.     

Modeling the fate of benzo[a]pyrene in the wastewater-irrigated areas of Tianjin with a fugacity model

A Level III fugacity model was applied to characterize the transfer processes and environmental fate of benzo[a]pyrene in wastewater-irrigated areas of Tianjin, China. The physical-chemical properties and transfer parameters of benzo[a]pyrene were used in the model and the concentration distribution of benzo[a]pyrene in sediment, soil, water, air, fish, and crop compartments, as well as transfer fluxes across the compartments, were then derived under steady-state assumptions. The calculated results were compared with monitoring data for air, soil, water, and sediment collected from the literature. The results indicate that there was generally good agreement and the differences were within an order of magnitude for air, soil, and sediment. The concentration of benzo[a]pyrene in the ambient air in the area was very low with a majority present sorbed to aerosol. In the water compartment, approximately 70% of benzo[a]pyrene dissolved in water phase. Relatively high concentrations of the compound were found in the soil and sediment, with the soil serving as the dominant sink in the area. Benzo[a]pyrene, with a slow metabolic rate, was found to accumulate in fish in the area.     

Lexicographic preference in biodiversity valuation: Tests of inconsistencies and willingness to pay

Previous contingent valuation (CV) studies on biodiversity have indicated that as much as one-quarter of the respondents show lexicographic preferences when facing biodiversity-money trade-offs. This behaviour is incompatible with welfare theory underlying CV, and thus questions the validity and reliability of the outcome of CV of changes in biodiversity. However, it is difficult from CV responses to distinguish between strict and modified lexicographic preferences, and those attaching a high value to biodiversity. This paper adds to the empirical evidence showing that what at first hand seems to represent strict lexicographic preferences is at most representing modified lexicographic preferences, and probably rather represent just high valuation of biodiversity. Data on both hypothetical and actual willingness to pay (WTP) from a CV study on biodiversity were used to perform tests of inconsistent attitudes to estimate the maximum share of non-compensatory preferences for biodiversity. The results show that there are very few respondents in the group that consistently state high preference for biodiversity preservation and show clear reluctance to trade-off biodiversity with other goods. However, this group also had higher WTP, both hypothetical and actual, than the reference group. This is consistent with exchange preferences and steep indifference curves. Thus, people with lexicographic preferences for biodiversity are probably less numerous than previously indicated.     

Monitoring the performance and decline of heritage trees in urban Hong Kong

Urban trees in Hong Kong exist in stressful and harsh habitat conditions due mainly to the exceptionally high-density development mode. This study focuses on the cream of the urban tree stock, the heritage trees, which were selected according to five sets of stringent criteria: species, dimension, structure, condition, location, and special considerations. The study area covers the main urban core of the city. The loss of trees in two periods, 1993-1998 and 1999-2003, was monitored, with the predisposing and direct causes of damages ascertained as far as possible. Of the 380 heritage specimens, 54 trees were lost in the survey period. The main predisposing causes were injuries sustained in roadwork and construction activities, both related to root damage and soil disturbance. The principal direct causes were recent gradual decline and abrupt demise due to typhoon breakage. Three pairs of contributing variables registered statistically significant associations (chi(2) test), namely predisposing cause versus direct cause, tree growth form versus direct cause, and survey period versus direct cause. Principal component analysis identified three factors that explained 70% of the variance, namely tree form, tree stature, and growth environment. The main reasons for the high mortality were explored. The possible applications of the findings to improve tree protection and management were discussed in relation to the overall planning for meritorious greenery and green space especially in compact cities.     

Investigation of the positive artifact formation during sampling semi-volatile aerosol using wet denuders

Wet denuders are used in several steam-based semi-continuous aerosol monitors to avoid gaseous absorption artifacts and pre-humidify the air stream, while simultaneously allowing measurements of water-soluble gaseous species. Unlike dry denuders, wet denuders saturate the sample air stream with water vapor, which can lead to re-partitioning of water-soluble volatile species to the aerosol phase, thereby causing a positive artifact in aerosol measurements. This paper investigates the magnitude of the positive artifact formation occurring in wet denuders using modeling techniques. Gaseous nitric acid was used as an example of volatile water-soluble gas in both flat and annular wet denuders. We have also verified the occurrence of the positive artifact in a flat wet denuder through a laboratory experiment. The model results indicate that the magnitude of the artifact is rather limited under typical conditions being less than 2.5% of ambient nitric acid concentration for the flat denuder and less than 0.6% for the annular denuder. The magnitude of the artifact increases with condensational sink of the aerosol (i.e. with the mean aerosol size and number concentration) and aerosol water solubility. While the artifact is relatively small in the absolute sense, it could be substantial for aerosol nitrate measurements, especially in ammonia limited conditions, when the concentration of the nitric acid is high and the concentration of nitrate is low. Therefore, we recommend that the artifact is assessed regularly by replacing the wet denuder with a dry denuder.     

Flame Propagation Across Gelled Alkane-In-Water Emulsions

Flame propagation rates were measured for flames spreading across surfaces of gel-like alkane-in-water emulsions. A long, slender, water-cooled trough was used to contain the mixtures. Abrupt changes in the flame propagation velocities - of nearly two orders of magnitude - were observed to occur near ‘critical’ concentrations of certain alkane/water mixtures. Four alkanes were used - pentane, hexane, heptane, and octane - and fuel rich emulsions (in which water was the continuous phase) were employed. The ability of the aqueous phase of the emulsion to inhibit the release of fuel into the vapor phase plays an important role in the observed behavior. That is, the rate at which fuel can diffuse through both the emulsion and the thin liquid layers that reside on it, is an essential kinetic aspect of the phenomena which determine the flame propagation rate across gelled alkane-in-water emulsions.