Adaptation Scenarios of Agriculture in Poland to Future Climate Changes

This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.     

Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Air quality and deposition of trace elements in Didouche Mourad, Algeria

Total suspended particulate matter and deposition fluxes of particles were investigated in the town of Didouche Mourad which is located 13 km north of Constantine. Samples of air particulate matter were collected at one site located in the heart of the town and situated 3 km north of a cement plant. Samples were collected from 2 November 2002 to 28 April 2003 every 3 days using a high volume air sampler. Sampling intervals were 24 h in all cases. During the same period, samples of dust fallout were collected at the same site. Samples were collected at 30-day intervals. Lead, chromium, manganese, nickel, copper, cobalt and cadmium deposition fluxes were measured and both the soluble and insoluble fractions were determined. Furthermore, the information gathered by this study was correlated with the corresponding hourly weather data provided by a weather station installed at the study station. The possible sources for dust and trace metals were analyzed by comparing average contributions of wind aspects to the concentrations and depositions of mass and chemical species with the average frequencies of wind direction. The mean concentration was 300 μg/m³. The average dust deposition rate through the period of study was 221 mg/(m².day). Results indicate that anthropogenic sources contribute greatly to trace elements. An exposure assessment to the heavy metals taking into account the inhalation route and soil dust ingestion was carried out and allowed direct comparison of trace metal intakes via these routes.     

Water quality assessment of Almatti Reservoir of Bijapur (Karnataka State, India) with special reference to zooplankton

The present investigation deals with the limnobiotic status of Almatti reservoir from February, 2003 to January, 2005. The study revealed that, the distribution and population density of zooplankton species depend upon the physico-chemical factors of the environment. Statistical analysis showed that there exists a significant relation between the biological and non-biological factors. The benthic fauna constituting the food of fish can be utilized for extensive culture operation so that the nutrients in the reservoir are not only properly cycled but also serve as a check on further eutrophication.     

Soil and vegetation carbon stocks in Brazilian Western Amazonia: relationships and ecological implications for natural landscapes

The relationships between soils attributes, soil carbon stocks and vegetation carbon stocks are poorly know in Amazonia, even at regional scale. In this paper, we used the large and reliable soil database from Western Amazonia obtained from the RADAMBRASIL project and recent estimates of vegetation biomass to investigate some environmental relationships, quantifying C stocks of intact ecosystem in Western Amazonia. The results allowed separating the western Amazonia into 6 sectors, called pedo-zones: Roraima, Rio Negro Basin, Tertiary Plateaux of the Amazon, Javari-Juruá-Purus lowland, Acre Basin and Rondonia uplands. The highest C stock for the whole soil is observed in the Acre and in the Rio Negro sectors. In the former, this is due to the high nutrient status and high clay activity, whereas in the latter, it is attributed to a downward carbon movement attributed to widespread podzolization and arenization, forming spodic horizons. The youthful nature of shallow soils of the Javari-Juruá-Purus lowlands, associated with high Al, results in a high phytomass C/soil C ratio. A similar trend was observed for the shallow soils from the Roraima and Rondonia highlands. A consistent east–west decline in biomass carbon in the Rio Negro Basin sector is associated with increasing rainfall and higher sand amounts. It is related to lesser C protection and greater C loss of sandy soils, subjected to active chemical leaching and widespread podzolization. Also, these soils possess lower cation exchangeable capacity and lower water retention capacity. Zones where deeply weathered Latosols dominate have a overall pattern of high C sequestration, and greater than the shallower soils from the upper Amazon, west of Madeira and Negro rivers. This was attributed to deeper incorporation of carbon in these clayey and highly pedo-bioturbated soils. The results highlight the urgent need for refining soil data at an appropriate scale for C stocks calculations purposes in Amazonia. There is a risk of misinterpreting C stocks in Amazonia when such great pedological variability is not taken into account.     

Magnetic mapping of fly-ash pollution and heavy metals from soil samples around a point source in a dry tropical environment

The Singrauli region in the southeastern part of Uttar Pradesh, India is one of the most polluted industrial sites of Asia. It encompasses 11 open cast coalmines and six thermal power stations that generate about 7,500 MW (about 10% of India’s installed generation capacity) electricity. Thermal power plants represent the main source of pollution in this region, emitting six million tonnes of fly-ash per annum. Fly-ash is deposited on soils over a large area surrounding thermal power plants. Fly-ashes have high surface concentrations of several toxic elements (heavy metals) and high atmospheric mobility. Fly ash is produced through high-temperature combustion of fossil fuel rich in ferromagnetic minerals. These contaminants can be identified using rock-magnetic methods. Magnetic susceptibility is directly linked to the concentration of ferromagnetic minerals, primarily high values of magnetite. In this study, magnetic susceptibility of top soil samples collected from surrounding areas of a bituminous-coal-fired power plant were measured to identify areas of high emission levels and to chart the spatial distribution of airborne solid particles. Sites close to the power plant have shown higher values of susceptibility that decreases with increasing distance from the source. A significant correlation between magnetic susceptibility and heavy metal content in soils is found. A comparison of the spatial distribution of magnetic susceptibility with heavy-metal concentrations in soil samples suggests that magnetic measurements can be used as a rapid and inexpensive method for proxy mapping of air borne pollution due to industrial activity.     

Seasonal variations of heavy metal contamination in river Gomti of Lucknow city region

The present study deals with the seasonal variations in the concentrations of heavy metals namely chromium, lead and mercury by using spectrophotometric methods. The water samples were collected at regular intervals from five selected sites of river Gomti in the pre-monsoon period (months of February-May) and the post monsoon period (months of October-January). The concentrations of chromium (VI) and mercury (II) were determined by using Genesys-10 UV-VIS Spectrophotometer while lead (II) concentrations were determined using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer, Perkin-Elmer 5000 model. The concentrations of all the three metals were found to be higher in the pre-monsoon period than in the post-monsoon period. The statistical analysis of the data was discussed in both the seasons in terms of mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation.     

Biophysical and socioeconomic characterization of a water-stressed area and simulating agri-production estimates and land use planning under normal and extreme climatic events: a case study

This study aims in linking the biophysical and socioeconomic data base layers with the technical coefficients or simulation models for agri-production estimates and land use planning under normal and extreme climatic events, and exploring the resource and inputs management options in village Shikohpur, Gurgaon district located in the northwest part of India. The socioeconomic profile of Shikohpur is highly skewed with mostly small and marginal farmers. Though the areas under wheat in Shikohpur are increasing, the productivity is declining or remaining stagnant over the years. Most of the area during kharif season (June-September) remains fallow. Pearl millet based cropping systems (pearl millet-mustard and pearl millet-wheat) are predominant. Soils are mostly loamy sand to sandy loam with average of 70-80% sand content. Organic C content in soil is less than 0.3%, due to high prevailing temperature with little rainfall and also intensive agriculture followed in this region. Though the annual average seasonal rainfall in Gurgaon did not have much variation over the years, occurrence of extreme climate events has increased in the last two decades. The crop intensity is low and the water table is declining. Water and nitrogen production functions were developed for the important crops of the region, for their subsequent use in scheduling of the inputs. InfoCrop, WTGROWS and technical coefficients were used for crop planning and resource management under climate change and its variability, extreme events, limited resource availability and crop intensification. These will help in disseminating necessary agro-advisories to the farmers so that they will be able to manipulate the inputs and agronomic management practices for sustained agricultural production under normal as well as extreme climatic conditions.     

A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.     

Assessing the Impacts of Forests on Human Welfare: Preliminary Results from the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment

This paper presents results from the first phase of the socio-economic assessment of forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). First, we present results of the analysis of changes in the distribution of human population and forest land use in the region. Then, trends in wood products employment and income between 1975–95 are used to examine the economic contributions of forest-based industries in the Mid-Atlantic region. Between 1970–90 the population of the MAIA region increased by 14% (4.3 million people) resulting in the average population density increasing by 25 people per square mile from 179 to 204 people per square mile. Nevertheless, population density was lower in large parts of the region in 1990 than in 1950. Although forests dominate the MAIA landscape, the trend is toward more people owning smaller forest land holdings, with developed lands increasing by 21% and rural lands decreasing by 2.64% between 1982–94. All of this suggests increasing forest fragmentation in all states of the region except New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Forest industry has been an important contributor to the economy of the MAIA region, producing an average of a quarter million jobs (2.03% of all wage employment) and generating $4.5 billion in wages and salaries each year between 1975–95. If recent trends continue, forest industry will continue to be an important source of employment and income for parts of some states in the MAIA region; however, the forest industry's importance relative to the entire mid-Atlantic economy will likely continue to decline in the 21^st century.