系统安全态势的马尔科夫预测模型建立及应用

基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一.     

大型活动客流监测预警方法研究

随着我国经济文化的发展,大型活动日益增多,大型活动中人群拥挤事故作为大型活动事故预防控制的重点,逐渐引起人们的重视.本文从观众结构、时间分布、空间分布及运动性特征四方面分析了大型活动客流的相关特性;论述了大型活动安全监测的内容与方法,确定了安全监测的重点部位;从安全容量、安全密度、安全速度、密度变化率和速度变化率五个角度提出了大型活动客流风险的预警方法,并比较了各类方法的优缺点.研究成果为保障我国大型活动的顺利召开,避免拥挤踩踏事故的发生有一定的借鉴意义.     

青藏工程走廊道路工程阴阳坡效应研究现状及展望

青藏工程走廊整体呈东北-西南走向,加之青藏高原强烈的太阳辐射及大气透明度高,导致廊内路基工程存在显著的"阴阳坡"效应。在阴阳坡热效应作用下,路基阳坡路肩沉降变形普遍大于阴坡路肩,由此引发包括路基倾斜、边坡滑塌、纵向裂缝等一系列路基路面病害问题,严重影响了路基工程的长期稳定性,大幅增加了工程后期运营维护成本。针对这一问题,从青藏工程走廊阴阳坡效应的成因、阴阳坡效应作用下路基体冻融过程及地基温度场分布、路基的横向差异沉降变形、阴阳坡效应相关路基路面病害以及防控措施5个方面系统论述了目前的研究和工程实践现状,并结合阴阳坡效应的量化研究、防治措施的有效性等方面就未来需要开展的研究工作进行了展望,以期为青藏工程走廊内路基工程的建设与维护提供参考。     

新型溴代阻燃剂TBB和TBPH混合物对罗非鱼甲状腺激素和生理生化指标的影响

为了研究新型溴代阻燃剂FM550的生态风险,以罗非鱼为模式生物,配制添加不同浓度FM550(0、10、100和400ng·g~(-1))的饲料,将罗非鱼暴露56 d后,研究不同暴露剂量条件下FM550对罗非鱼甲状腺激素以及血清生理生化指标的影响。研究表明,经不同浓度的FM550暴露56 d后,罗非鱼的基础生长数据并无显著变化,但罗非鱼的甲状腺激素水平发生改变,具体表现为高剂量的FM550暴露可以使罗非鱼血清中的三碘甲状腺原氨酸(T3)、游离三碘甲状腺原氨酸(FT3)含量降低,四碘甲状腺原氨酸(T4)、游离四碘甲状腺原氨酸(FT4)含量升高。同时,FM550的暴露还可以导致罗非鱼的脂代谢改变,具体变化为血清总胆固醇(TC)、甘油三酯(TG)含量降低,高密度脂蛋白(HDL-C)含量升高,低密度脂蛋白(LDL-C)含量降低。不同剂量的FM550暴露对罗非鱼的全血生化指标并无影响。     

Effect of F,Cl, Br and I substitution on the BphB enzyme for the degradation of halogenated biphenyls,revealed by quantum and molecular mechanics

Halogenated biphenyls are worldwide persistent pollutants of great environmental concern. In particular, polychlorinated biphenyls and polybrominated biphenyls have been globally used for industrial purposes until they were found highly toxic, mutagenic and carcinogenic to humans. Therefore, ecological strategies to remove halogenated biphenyls, such as enzyme-catalyzed degradation, are needed. Here, we studied the effect of substitution of F, Cl, Br or I at the 4,4′-positions of 2,3-dihydro-2,3-dihydroxybiphenyl-2,3-dehydrogenase (BphB) on the degradation of halogenated biphenyls by quantum and molecular mechanics. Results show that Boltzmann-weighted average degradation barriers of substituted BphB are all lower than the unsubstituted biphenyl, except for chlorinated biphenyl. The roles of residues nearby the active site, e.g., isoleucine89, asparagine115, serine142, asparagine143, proline184, methionine187 and threonine189, were also investigated.

     

Recovery of Ni(II) from real electroplating wastewater using fixed-bed resin adsorption and subsequent electrodeposition

Resin adsorption and subsequent electrodeposition were used for nickel recovery. Treated wastewater can meet the Electroplating Pollutant Discharge Standard. The spent resin is completely regenerated by 3 BV of 4% HCl solution. 95.6% of nickel in concentrated eluent was recovered by electrodeposition. Effective recovery of high-value heavy metals from electroplating wastewater is of great significance, but recovering nickel ions from real electroplating wastewater as nickel sheet has not been reported. In this study, the pilot-scale fixed-bed resin adsorption was conducted to recover Ni(II) ions from real nickel plating wastewater, and then the concentrated Ni(II) ions in the regenerated solution were reduced to nickel sheet via electrodeposition. A commercial cation-exchange resin was selected and the optimal resin adsorption and regeneration conditions were investigated. The resin exhibited an adsorption capacity of 63 mg/g for Ni(II) ions, and the average amount of treated water was 84.6 bed volumes (BV) in the pilot-scale experiments. After the adsorption by two ion-exchange resin columns in series and one chelating resin column, the concentrations of Ni(II) in the treated wastewater were below 0.1 mg/L. After the regeneration of the spent resin using 3 BV of 4% (w/w) HCl solution, 1.5 BV of concentrated neutral nickel solution (>30 g/L) was obtained and used in the subsequent electrodeposition process. Using the aeration method, alkali and water required in resin activation process were greatly reduced to 2 BV and 3 BV, respectively. Under the optimal electrodeposition conditions, 95.6% of Ni(II) in desorption eluent could be recovered as the elemental nickel on the cathode. The total treatment cost for the resin adsorption and regeneration as well as the electrodeposition was calculated.     

Boosting freshwater fish conservation with high-resolution distribution mapping across a large territory

The lack of high-resolution distribution maps for freshwater species across large extents fundamentally challenges biodiversity conservation worldwide. We devised a simple framework to delineate the distributions of freshwater fishes in a high-resolution drainage map based on stacked species distribution models and expert information. We applied this framework to the entire Chinese freshwater fish fauna (>1600 species) to examine high-resolution biodiversity patterns and reveal potential conflicts between freshwater biodiversity and anthropogenic disturbances. The correlations between spatial patterns of biodiversity facets (species richness, endemicity, and phylogenetic diversity) were all significant (r = 0.43–0.98, p < 0.001). Areas with high values of different biodiversity facets overlapped with anthropogenic disturbances. Existing protected areas (PAs), covering 22% of China's territory, protected 25–29% of fish habitats, 16–23% of species, and 30–31% of priority conservation areas. Moreover, 6–21% of the species were completely unprotected. These results suggest the need for extending the network of PAs to ensure the conservation of China's freshwater fishes and the goods and services they provide. Specifically, middle to low reaches of large rivers and their associated lakes from northeast to southwest China hosted the most diverse species assemblages and thus should be the target of future expansions of the network of PAs. More generally, our framework, which can be used to draw high-resolution freshwater biodiversity maps combining species occurrence data and expert knowledge on species distribution, provides an efficient way to design PAs regardless of the ecosystem, taxonomic group, or region considered.     

冷空气在北上台风“利奇马”致灾暴雨中的作用分析

利用NCEP逐6 h再分析资料、地面加密观测、探空、雷达资料,分析得出“利奇马”致灾暴雨是在长时间稳定维持的天气尺度环流背景下形成的。冷空气在降水所起的作用表现在:(1)长时间维持的弱冷空气与偏南暖湿气流交汇形成了边界层辐合线,辐射升温和暖湿气流的输送加大了辐合线两侧的温度和露点梯度,在高温高湿的有利环境下,对流在辐合线附近强烈发展。(2)高空槽后冷空气由“利奇马”环流西北侧渗入,先后形成3个冷平流中心,分别对应3个阶段的降水。(3)冷暖空气在降水区的持续辐合抬升作用增强了降水,最强降水时段发生在锋区垂直方向坡度最大的时段。(4)水平锋生有利于水汽输送和辐合抬升,垂直锋生有利于对流不稳定能量的累积和触发。冷空气形成的水平辐合和抬升造成大范围上升运动,使得锋生和垂直锋消同时存在,最强降水时段发生在水平锋生最强的时段。