Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Predicting black smoke levels from deposit gauge and SO2 data to estimate long-term exposure in the United Kingdom, 1956–1961

BackgroundIn the UK air quality has been monitored systematically since 1914, providing valuable data for studies of the long-term trends in air pollution and potentially for studies of health effects of air pollutants. There are, however, challenges in interpreting these data due to changes over time in the number and location of monitored sites, and in monitoring techniques. Particulate matter was measured as deposited matter (DM) using deposit gauge monitors until the 1950s when black smoke (BS) filters were introduced. Estimating long-term exposure to particulates using data from both deposit gauge and BS monitors requires an understanding of the relationships between DM, SO₂ and BS.AimsTo explore whether DM and/or SO₂, along with seasonal and location specific variables can be used to predict BS levels.MethodsAir quality data were abstracted from hard copies of the monthly Atmospheric Pollution Bulletins for the period April 1956–March 1961 for any sites with co-located DM, SO₂ and BS data for three or more consecutive years. The relationships between DM, SO₂, and BS were assessed using mixed models.ResultsThere were 34 eligible sites giving 1521 triplets of data. There was a consistent correlation between SO₂ and BS at all sites, but the association between DM and BS was less clear and varied by location. Mixed modelling allowing for repeat measurements at each site revealed that SO₂, year, rainfall and season of measurement explained 72% of the variability in BS levels.ConclusionsSO₂ can be used as a surrogate measure for BS in all monitoring locations. This surrogate can be improved upon by consideration of site specific characteristics, seasonal effects, rainfall and year of measurement. These findings will help in estimating historic, long-term exposure to particulates where BS or other measures are not available.     

Human Hunting of Nongame Birds at Zuni, New Mexico, U.S.A.

Abstract: Nongame bird hunting is a critical activity of the Zuni people of the southwestern United States. To help determine whether their current hunting practices may be negatively affecting bird populations on the Zuni Reservation, we interviewed 98 Zuni hunters. Nongame bird hunting was practiced by a large portion of Zuni males (45%); the most active age group was 20- to 49-year-olds. The rate a species was hunted was not a function of its abundance at Zuni but seemed instead to be related to its cultural demand. Five "species"—bluebirds ( Sialia currucoides , S. mexicana ), Northern Flicker ( Colaptes auratus ), woodpeckers ( Picoides villosus , P. pubescens , Melanerpes lewis ), Steller's Jay ( Cyanocitta stelleri ), and American Kestrel ( Falco sparverius )—made up 77% of all birds taken. The two most heavily hunted species were each taken in numbers> 10,000 individuals per year. Although the greatest number of hunters were active in autumn, 31% hunted in spring, despite discouragement by the tribal government. Habitats favored by hunters were coniferous forests and riparian areas. Rates of hunting of nongame birds at Zuni equaled or exceeded those reported for game birds hunted by indigenous hunters in the Neotropics and New Mexico. The Zuni believe that some heavily hunted species are decreasing in number because of hunting. Although we cannot prove this at present, we suggest measures to mitigate possible overhunting, including the creation of refugia and a reduction of spring hunting.     

Noninvasive screening by cell-free DNA for 22q11.2 deletion: Benefits,limitations, and challenges

Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing for fetal aneuploidy is one of the most important technical advances in prenatal care. Additional chromosome targets beyond common aneuploidies, including the 22q11.2 microdeletion, are now available because of this clinical testing technology. While there are numerous potential benefits, 22q11.2 microdeletion screening using cfDNA testing also presents significant limitations and pitfalls. Practitioners who are offering this test should provide comprehensive pretest and posttest prenatal counselling. The discussion should include the possibility of an absence of a result, as well as the risk of possible discordance between cfDNA screening results and the actual fetal genetic chromosomal constitution. The goal of this review is to provide an overview of the cfDNA testing technologies for 22q11.2 microdeletions screening, describe the current state of test validation and clinical experience, review “no results” and discordant findings based on differing technologies, and discuss management options.     

Mycosporine-like amino acids: possible UV protection in eggs of the sea hare Aplysia dactylomela

We investigated mycosporine amino acid (MAA) involvement as protective sunscreens in spawn of the sea hare Aplysia dactylomela to determine if adult diet and ultraviolet (UV) exposure affected the UV sensitivity of developing embryos. Adults were fed a red alga rich in MAAs (Acanthophora spicifera) or a green alga poor in MAAs (Ulva lactuca). Adults on each diet were exposed for 2 wk to ambient solar irradiance with two types of acrylic filters; one allowed exposure to wavelengths >275 nm (designated UV) and one to wavelengths only >410 nm (designated NOUV). Spawn from each adult group was likewise treated with UV or NOUV and monitored during development for differences in mortality and metabolic rate (measured as oxygen consumption: V˙ _O2). Also recorded were number of eggs or embryos per capsule, times to hatching, hatching success, size at hatching, and V˙ _O2 of adults. Spawn from adults eating red algae was almost twice as rich in MAAs as spawn from adults eating green algae, suggesting that MAA content is diet-related. Although overall quantities of MAAs in the spawn reflected MAA contents of the adult diet, specific MAAs were differentially sequestered in the spawn. Thus, porphyra-334, found in high concentration in Aplysia dactylomela's preferred red algal food, was present in only low concentration in the spawn. Conversely, mycosporine-glycine, in low concentration in red algal food, was the most abundant MAA in the spawn. UV treatment of adults had no effect on quantities of MAAs in the spawn. Adults exposed to UV had significantly higher V˙ _O2s and spawned twice as often. The UV-treated adults produced spawn with significantly higher V˙ _O2s and their embryos developed to hatching sooner. The only significant effect of UV exposure of the spawn was to reduce the percentage of veligers hatching from 71 to 50%. There was no significant effect on hatching time or size of the veligers at hatching, nor on number of eggs per capsule. Received: 13 May 1997 / Accepted: 27 June 1997