Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

Improving ozone modeling in complex terrain at a fine grid resolution: Part I – examination of analysis nudging and all PBL schemes associated with LSMs in meteorological model

Meteorological variables such as temperature, wind speed, wind directions, and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) heights have critical implications for air quality simulations. Sensitivity simulations with five different PBL schemes associated with three different Land Surface Models (LSMs) were conducted to examine the impact of meteorological variables on the predicted ozone concentrations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.5 with local perspective. Additionally, the nudging analysis for winds was adopted with three different coefficients to improve the wind fields in the complex terrain at 4-km grid resolution. The simulations focus on complex terrain having valley and mountain areas at 4-km grid resolution. The ETA M–Y (Mellor–Yamada) and G–S (Gayno–Seaman) PBL schemes are identified as favorite options and promote O₃ formation causing the higher temperature, slower winds, and lower mixing height among sensitivity simulations in the area of study. It is found that PX (Pleim–Xiu) simulation does not always give optimal meteorological model performance. We also note that the PBL scheme plays a more important role in predicting daily maximum 8-h O₃ than land surface models. The results of nudging analysis for winds with three different increased coefficients' values (2.5, 4.5, and 6.0 × 10^?4 s^?1) over seven sensitivity simulations show that the meteorological model performance was enhanced due to improved wind fields, indicating the FDDA nudging analysis can improve model performance considerably at 4-km grid resolution. Specifically, the sensitivity simulations with the coefficient value (6.0 × 10^?4) yielded more substantial improvements than with the other values (2.5 and 4.5 × 10^?4). Hence, choosing the nudging coefficient of 6.0 × 10^?4 s^?1 for winds in MM5 may be the best choice to improve wind fields as an input, as well as, better model performance of CMAQ in the complex terrain area. As a result, a finer grid resolution is necessary to evaluate and access of CMAQ results for giving a detailed representation of meteorological and chemical processes in the regulatory modeling. A recommendation of optimal scheme options for simulating meteorological variables in the complex terrain area is made.     

Patterns and sources of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans in surficial sediments of Lakes Erie and Ontario

This study determines spatial trends and congener patterns of 2378-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) in surficial sediments of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Sediments are enriched in 2378-PCDFs in Lake Ontario, and the PCDD/F concentrations increased from shallow near-shore sediments towards deep-water depositional zone sediments. In Lake Erie, sediments were dominated by octachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, and the highest PCDD/F concentrations were observed in the western basin and the southern shoreline of the central basin with a decrease towards the eastern basin and the northern shoreline of the central basin. Principal components analysis revealed that chemical manufacture and disposal of chemical waste along the Niagara River has been a major PCDD/F source to Lake Ontario; while PCDD/Fs in Lake Erie are from multiple sources including industrial sources along the Detroit River, major tributaries along the southern shoreline of the lake, and atmospherically-derived material from the upper lakes and connecting channels.     

Temperature-associated dynamics of songbird winter distributions and abundances

Using Christmas Bird Count data, we analyze the annual spatio-temporal abundances of six passerine species in the upper Great Plains, US (1960-1990). This study provides new insight into how global warming could cause separation of species within present-day communities. We find that winter relative abundances of similarly-sized songbirds are differentially affected by ambient winter temperature. As such, average annual winter temperature fluctuations (i.e., severity of winter) are significantly (P < 0.05) correlated with the relative abundances of three species while the other three are not. Our conditional probability-of-occurrence analysis indicates that the abundances of the three temperature-associated species declined markedly below -4 degrees C while the abundances of the other three species fluctuated little from 8 degrees C to -16 degrees C. We conclude that even in colder climates i) the winter distributions of some, but not all, songbirds are directly or indirectly limited by temperature; and ii) these birds have dynamic abundances that can quickly respond to temperature changes.     

Improving food security in Swaziland: The transition from subsistence to communally managed cash cropping

The Komati Downstream Development Project (KDDP), based upon the Maguga Dam has enabled 6,000 hectares of semi‐arid lowveld, in a region with low and highly variable rainfall to be converted from subsistence to irrigated commercial farming, mainly of sugar cane. This has transformed the Swazi sugar industry from one dominated by a small number of large‐scale commercial estates to one where more than 1,500 previously impoverished small‐scale Swazi farmers have been able to enter the industry by joining farmers’ associations and creating communally managed farms. Recent changes to the EU's Sugar Protocol have undermined the financial viability of the KDDP farms and undermined food security, especially for the poorest, due to the cut in sugar prices. However, some farmers’ associations have opted to keep some of their land as irrigated home gardens, rather than convert all their land to sugar cane. This model has improved food security at a time of low sugar prices and points to a more sustainable way of using water from large scale dams than the conventional model. It is argued that the EU should target support to members of the KDDP who have taken out large‐scale loans to pay for the in‐field infrastructure and encourage all farmers’ associations to adopt the food garden model. This would enable them to continue to benefit from the irrigation through improved production of subsistence crops, whilst they diversify their commercial production into novel markets.     

Movement of diuron and hexazinone in clay soil and infiltrated pond water

Pre-emergence herbicide residues were detected in domestic wells sampled near Tracy, CA. This study sought to determine the source of contamination by comparing soil distribution of diuron [N'-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-N,N-dimethylurea] and hexazinone [3-cyclohexyl-6-(dimethylamino)-1-methyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4(1H,3H)-dione] in an agricultural field where the soil was a cracking clay to infiltration of residues in water captured by an adjacent holding pond. Diuron and hexazinone were applied in December to a 3-yr-old alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) crop. Water content of soil taken after major rainfall but before irrigation at 106 d after application was elevated at the lowest depth sampled centered at 953 mm, indicating water was available for percolation. Herbicide residues (reporting limit 8 microg kg(-1)) were confined above the 152 mm soil depth, even after subsequent application of two border-check surface irrigations. The pattern of distribution and concentration of residues in the soil were similar to results obtained from the LEACHM model, suggesting that macropore flow was limited to a shallow depth of soil. Herbicide residues were measured in runoff water at the first irrigation at 20 microg L(-1) for diuron and 1 microg L(-1) for hexazinone. Runoff water captured in the pond rapidly infiltrated into the subsurface soil, causing a concomitant rise in ground water elevation near the pond. Herbicide residues were also detected in the sampled ground water. We concluded that the pond was the predominant source for movement to ground water. Since addition of a surfactant to the spray mixture did not reduce concentrations in runoff water, mitigation methods will focus on minimizing infiltration of water from the pond.     

DEVELOPMENT OF NUTRIENT SUBMODULES FOR USE IN THE GRIDDED SURFACE SUBSURFACE HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS (GSSHA) DISTRIBUTED WATERSHED MODEL1

Abstract: A primary water quality problem caused by non-point source pollution (NPSP) is eutrophication, from excess nutrients in receiving water bodies. The control of nutrients arising from NPSP is difficult because the source areas can be hard to identify and typical treatment methods are infeasible due to the distributed nature of the pollutants. It may be possible to reduce nutrient related water quality problems through the restoration of highly disturbed watersheds with best management practices (BMPs). While restoration attempts may provide significant returns, they can be costly to implement and often are met with resistance in agricultural communities. Extending model results beyond the range of calibration to model future conditions such as for restoration scenarios requires the use of physically-based models that include the important processes that generate streamflow and material transport, uptake, loss, transformation, and recycling of nutrients and other material. The research and development objectives of the US. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) in Vicksburg, Mississippi, are to develop a watershed assessment and management model to simulate transport, uptake, loss, transformation, and recycling of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus and associated material such as sediment and organic matter. In this study we will discuss current efforts at the ERDC's Environmental Laboratory to develop a state-of-the-art watershed water quality model.     

Food resource utilization among five species of embiotocids at King Harbor,California, with preliminary estimates of caloric intake

The diets of 5 species of embiotocids (Rhacochilus vacca, Embiotoca jacksoni, Hypsurus caryi ryi, Phanerodon furcatus and Micrometrus minimus) from King Harbor, Redondo Beach, California, USA, are examined by means of a dietary survey, field feeding observations and bomb calorimetry of prey items. Each species is shown to have statistically different diets from all others, with the exception of H. caryi which apparently is a dietary intermediate between E. jacksoni and P. furcatus. Dietary overlap between E. jacksoni and H. caryi appears to have resulted in some competitive exclusion along other niche parameters. Estimated caloric intakes suggest that R. vacca has the highest caloric yield per bite and the lowest feeding rate of the species studied. Possible energetic advantages are found for diet specialization in R. vacca.