Modeling future land cover and water quality change in Minneapolis,MN, USA to support drinking water source protection decisions

Continued alteration of the nitrogen cycle exposes receiving waters to elevated nitrogen concentrations and forces drinking water treatment services to plan for such increases in the future. We developed four 2011–2050 land cover change scenarios and modeled the impact of projected land cover change on influent water quality to support long-term planning for the Minneapolis Water Treatment Distribution Service (MWTDS) using Soil Water and Assessment Tool. Projected land cover changes based on relatively unconstrained economic growth led to substantial increases in total nitrogen (TN) loads and modest increases in total phosphorus (TP) loads in spring. Changes in sediment, TN, and TP under two “constrained” growth scenarios were near zero or declined modestly. Longitudinal analysis suggested that the extant vegetation along the Mississippi River corridor upstream of the MWTDS may be a sediment (and phosphorus) trap. Autoregressive analysis of current (2008–2017) chemical treatment application rates (mass per water volume processed) and extant (2001–2011) land cover change revealed that statistically significant increases in chemical treatment rates were temporally congruent with urbanization and conversion of pasture to cropland. Using the current trend in chemical treatment application rates and their inferred relationship to extant land cover change as a bellwether, the unconstrained growth scenarios suggest that future land cover may present challenges to the production of potable water for MWTDS.     

Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

The ‘Perfect Storm’ metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.     

Snapping Turtles (Chelydra serpentina) As Monitors for Mercury Contamination of Aquatic Environments

We assessed the distribution of mercury in snapping turtles(Chelydra serpentina) by analyzing front shoulder muscle,back leg muscle, tail muscle, blood, liver, and marginalcarapacial scute (shell) of 26 adult turtles from five smalllakes. Total mercury concentration in muscle ranged from 50 to500 ng g^–1 wet weight and was highly correlated among the threetissue locations. There was no relationship between musclemercury concentration and body size. Mercury concentration inblood was similar to muscle; the correlation with muscle mercuryconcentration was significant but there was some variability. Mercury concentration in shell was much higher than in muscle orblood, ranging from 500 to 3300 ng g^–1, and was highly correlatedwith muscle mercury concentration. Liver mercury concentrationwas similar to shell, but was highly variable and uncorrelatedwith any other tissue. We conclude that snapping turtlesaccumulate mercury from their environment and may be usefulmonitors of mercury contamination.     

The plutonium isotopic composition of marine biota on Enewetak Atoll: a preliminary assessment

We have determined the level and distribution of gamma-emitting radionuclides, plutonium activity concentrations, and 240Pu/239Pu atom ratios in tissue samples of giant clam (Tridacna gigas and Hippopus hippopus), a top snail (Trochus nilaticas) and sea cucumber (Holothuria atra) collected from different locations around Enewetak Atoll. The plutonium isotopic measurements were performed using ultra-high sensitivity accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Elevated levels of plutonium were observed in the stomachs (includes the stomach lining) of Tridacna clam (0.62 to 2.98 Bq kg(-1), wet wt.), in the soft parts (edible portion) of top snails (0.25 to 1.7 Bq kg(-1)), wet wt.) and, to a lesser extent, in sea cucumber (0.015 to 0.22 Bq kg(-1), wet wt.) relative to muscle tissue concentrations in clam (0.006 to 0.021 Bq kg(-1), wet wt.) and in comparison with previous measurements of plutonium in fish. These data and information provide a basis for re-evaluating the relative significance of dietary intakes of plutonium from marine foods on Enewetak Atoll and, perhaps most importantly, demonstrate that discrete 240Pu239Pu isotope signatures might well provide a useful investigative tool to monitor source-term attribution and consequences on Enewetak Atoll. One potential application of immediate interest is to monitor and assess the health and ecological impacts of leakage of plutonium (as well as other radionuclides) from a low-level radioactive waste repository on Runit Island relative to background levels of fallout contamination in Enewetak Atoll lagoon.     

The Development of a Sampling System for Determining Odor Emission Rates from Areal Surfaces: Part I. Aerodynamic Performance

Abstract

An improved portable odor sampling system (OSS) of the wind tunnel type was designed to determine odor emissions from areal sources. The aerodynamics of the odor emission hood was observed using a number of smoke tests and dry ice tests. The velocity profiles were also measured horizontally and vertically in the hood by an anemometer. Modifications in the form of an extension inlet duct, flat vanes, and a baffle were necessary to achieve repeatable, uniform, and steady velocity profiles inside the hood. The optimum velocity for use of the OSS was found to be 0.33 m/s, based upon the aerodynamic performance of the OSS and the sensitivity of the anemometer at a lower velocity.     

Prediction of the Vertical Profile of Ozone Based on Ground-Level Ozone Observations and Cloud Cover

Abstract

A number of statistical techniques have been used to develop models to predict high-elevation ozone (O₃) concentrations for each discrete hour of day as a function of elevation based on ground-level O₃ observations. The analyses evaluated the effect of exclusion/inclusion of cloud cover as a variable. It was found that a simple model, using the current maximum ground-level O₃ concentration and no effect of cloud cover provided a reasonable prediction of the vertical profile of O₃, based on data analyzed from O₃ sites located in North Carolina and Tennessee. The simple model provided an approach that estimates the concentration of O₃ as a function of elevation (up to 1800 m) based on the statistical results with a ±13.5 ppb prediction error, an R² of 0.56, and an index of agreement, d ₁, of 0.66. The inclusion of cloud cover resulted in a slight improvement in the model over the simple regression model. The developed models, which consist of two matrices of 24 equations (one for each hour of day for clear to partly cloudy conditions and one for cloudy conditions), can be used to estimate the vertical O₃ profile based on the inputs of the current day’s 1-hr maximum ground-level O₃ concentration and the level of cloud cover.     

Linking Fine-Scale Sub-Arctic Vegetation Distribution in Complex Topography with Surface-Air-Temperature Modelled at 50-m Resolution

This article presents the impact of the ecological investment in ironworks (dust filter installation) and construction works at a highly contaminated brownfield site on the chemical composition of household dust (HD) and street sediment (SS) in Celje, Slovenia. The evaluation is based on two sampling campaigns: the first was undertaken 1 month before the ecological investment became operational and the second 3 years later. The results show that dust filter installations reduced the content of Co, Cr, Fe, Mn, Mo, W and Zn on average by 58% in HD and by 51% in SS. No reduction was observed at sampling points in the upwind direction from the ironworks. By contrast, the impact of the construction works on the highly contaminated brownfield site was detected by a significant increase (on average by 37%) of elements connected to the brownfield contamination in SS. Such increase was not detected in HD.     

Evaluation of the Temporal Transferability of a Model Describing Dissolved Solids in Streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin1

Kenney, Terry A. and Susan G. Buto, 2012. Evaluation of the Temporal Transferability of a Model Describing Dissolved Solids in Streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 1041‐1053. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00667.x Abstract: The application of a nonlinear least‐squares regression model describing the sources and transport of dissolved solids in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin, and that was calibrated using data from water year 1991, was evaluated for use in predicting annual dissolved‐solids loads for the years 1974 through 1998. Simulations for each water year were run using annual climate data. To evaluate how well the model captures the observed annual variability across the basin, differences in predicted annual dissolved‐solids loads for each simulated year and 1991 were compared with differences in monitored annual loads. The temporal trend of the differences between predicted annual loads for the simulated years and the load for 1991 generally followed the trend of the monitored loads. The model appears to underpredict the largest annual loads and overpredict some of the smaller annual loads. An underprediction bias for wetter years was evident in the residuals as was an overprediction bias, to a lesser degree, for drier years. A regression analysis on the residuals suggests that the underprediction bias is associated with precipitation differences from 1991 and with previously defined downward trends in dissolved‐solids concentrations in the basin. In general, given the representative climatic conditions, the model adequately performs throughout the period examined. However, the model is most transferable to years with climatic conditions similar to 1991.     

Plant and Vegetation Dynamics on Disko Island,West Greenland: Snapshots Separated by Over 40 Years

We report on a revisit in 2009 to sites where vegetation was recorded in 1967 and 1970 on Disko Island, West Greenland. Re-sampling of the same clones of the grass Phleum alpinum after 39 years showed complete stability in biometrics but dramatic earlier onset of various phenological stages that were not related to changes in population density. In a fell-field community, there was a net species loss, but in a herb-slope community, species losses balanced those that were gained. The type of species establishing and increasing in frequency and/or cover abundance at the fell-field site, particularly prostrate dwarf shrubs, indicates a possible start of a shift towards a heath, rather than a fell-field community. At the herb-slope site, those species that established or increased markedly in frequency and/or cover abundance indicate a change to drier conditions. This is confirmed both by the decrease in abundance of Alchemilla glomerulans and Epilobium hornemanii, and the drying of a nearby pond. The causes of these changes are unknown, although mean annual temperature has risen since 1984.