Uncertainty modelling in multi-criteria analysis of water safety measures

Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe and sustainable drinking water supply. The World Health Organization emphasises preparation of water safety plans, in which risk ranking by means of risk matrices with discretised probability and consequence scales is commonly used. Risk ranking enables prioritisation of risks, but there is currently no common and structured way of performing uncertainty analysis and using risk ranking for evaluating and comparing water safety measures. To enable a proper prioritisation of safety measures and an efficient use of available resources for risk reduction, two alternative models linking risk ranking and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are presented and evaluated. The two models specifically enable uncertainty modelling in MCDA, and they differ in terms of how uncertainties in risk levels are considered. The need of formal handling of risk and uncertainty in MCDA is emphasised in the literature, and the suggested models provide innovations that are not dependent on the application domain. In the case study application presented here, possible safety measures are evaluated based on the benefit of estimated risk reduction, the cost of implementation and the probability of not achieving an acceptable risk level. Additional criteria such as environmental impact and consumer trust may also be included when applying the models. The case study shows how safety measures can be ranked based on preference scores or cost-effectiveness and how measures not reducing the risk enough can be identified and disqualified. Furthermore, the probability of each safety measure being ranked highest can be calculated. The two models provide a stepwise procedure for prioritising safety measures and enable a formalised handling of uncertainties in input data and results.     

What Lies Beneath? An Evaluation of Rapid Assessment Tools for Management of Hull Fouling

Despite an increased understanding of marine invasions, non-indigenous species (NIS) continue to be redistributed at both global and regional scales. Since prevention is an important element of NIS programs, monitoring vectors responsible for NIS introductions and spread, such as hull fouling, has become a priority and methods should be selected carefully to balance accuracy, time, and cost. Two common fouling assessment tools for the marine recreational boating vector were evaluated for accuracy using a traditional underwater SCUBA survey in coastal British Columbia: a dockside level of fouling assessment and a behavioral questionnaire model. Results showed that although rapid, dockside assessments did not provide an accurate assessment of fouling present below the surface, at least not in this region. In contrast, a questionnaire-based model using four easily obtained variables (boat type, age of antifouling paint, storage type, and occurrence of long distance trips) reliably identified boats carrying macrofouling species, a proxy for risk of NIS transport. Once validated, this fouling model tool could be applied in border inspection or quarantine situations where decisions must be made quickly. Further development and refinement of rapid assessment tools would improve our ability to prevent new introductions and manage spread of existing invasive species.     

Light,timing of biological rhythms,and chronodisruption in man

This paper reviews abundant evidence suggesting that causes and course of aging and cancers can be considered as being both light- and rhythm-related. We define chronodisruption as a relevant disturbance of orderly biological rhythms over days and seasons and years in man. Light is the primary external mediator and melatonin a primary internal intermediary of such disturbances, which can result in earlier deaths via premature aging and cancers. We conclude that experimental and epidemiological research can provide further insights into common denominators of these chronic processes and may offer novel and uniform targets for prevention.     

Queue up, please! Spermathecal filling in the rove beetle Drusilla canaliculata (Coleoptera, Staphylinidae)

Most studies on insect sperm motility have been conducted in vitro using artificial environments outside the animal’s body. Only little is known about the function of motile insect sperm at different sites within the male or female genital tracts. We dissected genital tracts of female rove beetles (Drusilla canaliculata) to show that spermatozoa use their own motility to migrate from the spermatophore into the spermatheca. Our dissection method allowed direct observation and filming of the spermathecal filling process inside the female’s genital tract. Spermatozoa were found to enter the spermatheca individually, sometimes in groups of two or three. Although exhibiting only weak motility and no progressive motion in buffer solution, the spermatozoa inside the female show vigorous lashing and reach an average velocity of 47.5 μm s⁻¹. To gain mobility and speed, the spermatozoa likely utilize the relatively small diameter of the spermathecal duct to push themselves off the duct walls, rather than swimming freely in seminal fluid. The spermatozoa (approximately 1,250 μm) are considerably longer than the distance they have to travel along the spermathecal duct (approximately 800 μm). Our study provides the first direct observation of active sperm migration within the female of an insect stressing the importance of the genital tract as a prerequisite for functional sperm motility.     

Hydrodynamic Modeling Improves Green River Reconnection with Floodplain Wetlands for Endangered Fish Species Recovery

We performed two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic modeling to aid recovery of the endangered razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus) by reconnecting the Green River with its historic bottomland floodplain wetlands at Ouray National Wildlife Refuge, Utah. Reconnection allows spring flood flows to overtop the river levee every two to three years, and passively transport razorback sucker larvae to the wetlands to grow in critical habitat. This study includes (1) river hydrologic analysis, (2) simulation of a levee breach/weir, overtopping of river flood flows, and 2D flow through the wetlands using Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System 2D, and (3) modeling flow and restoration scenarios. Indicators of hydrologic alteration were used to evaluate river flow metrics, in particular flood magnitudes, frequency, and duration. Results showed a target spring flow of 16,000 cfs (453 m³/s) and a levee breach elevation of 4,663 ft (1,421 m) amsl would result in a median flow >6,000 acre‐feet (7.4 million m³) over five days into the wetlands, which is adequate for razorback sucker larvae transport and rearing. Modeling of flow/restoration scenarios showed using gated water control structures and passive low‐water crossings between wetland units can provide adequate control of flow movement into and storage in multiple units. Levee breaching can be a relatively simple, cost‐effective method to reconnect rivers and historic floodplains, and hydrodynamic modeling is an important tool for analyzing and designing wetland reconnection.     

Analysis of PFAAs in American alligators part 1: Concentrations in alligators harvested for consumption during South Carolina public hunts

Environmental contamination resulting from the production or release of harmful chemicals can lead to negative consequences for wildlife and human health. Perfluorinated alkyl acids (PFAAs) were historically produced as protective coatings for many household items and currently persist in the environment, wildlife, and humans. PFAAs have been linked to immune suppression, endocrine disruption, and developmental toxicity in wildlife and laboratory studies. This study examines the American alligator, Alligator mississippiensis, as an important indicator of ecosystem contamination and a potential pathway for PFAA exposure in humans. Alligator meat harvested in the 2015 South Carolina (SC) public hunt season and prepared for human consumption was collected and analyzed for PFAAs to determine meat concentrations and relationships with animal body size (total length), sex, and location of harvest. Of the 15 PFAAs analyzed, perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was found in all alligator meat samples and at the highest concentrations (median 6.73 ng/g). No relationship was found between PFAA concentrations and total length or sex. Concentrations of one or all compounds varied significantly across sampling locations, with alligators harvested in the Middle Coastal hunt unit having the highest PFOS concentrations (median 16.0 ng/g; p = 0.0001). Alligators harvested specifically from Berkley County, SC (located in the Middle Coastal hunt unit) had the highest PFOS concentrations and the greatest number of PFAAs detected (p < 0.0001). The site-specific nature of PFAA concentrations in alligator meat observed in this study suggests a source of PFAA contamination in Berkley County, SC.