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The Science of Nature -     

Methods for project-based mechanisms (JI/CDM)—relevance of IPCC inventory guidelines

A baseline for a project consists of estimates of annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) for a given time period without implementing the project. A general three-step process for determining the baseline is suggested. The emission reduction of the project is given by the difference between the baseline and the monitored annual emissions. A preferred method, direct measurement of the emission reduction, is possible for some types of projects. Methods for estimating the annual baseline emissions are not necessary for the latter category, and a definition of this project category is suggested. IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories categorise the emission sources so that only direct emissions from consumption of fuel and feedstock are calculated. There are thus no emission factors for indirect emissions (e.g. electricity consumption or km transported) or emission factors that depend on technology only, independent of consumption of fuel and feedstock. Technology-dependent emission factors may thus need to be developed for estimating indirect emissions and multi-project baselines. Consistency should be sought with the IPCC Guidelines when estimating annual baseline emissions and in monitoring project emissions to ensure comparability with the National Inventories.     

Relationship between abundance of rodents and damage to agricultural crops

Developing a relationship between pest abundance and damage to crops is essential for the calculation of economic injury levels (EIL) leading to informed management decisions. The crop modelling framework, APSIM, was used to simulate the impact of mouse damage on yield loss on wheat where a long-term dataset on the density of mice was available (1983–2003). The model was calibrated using results from field trials where wheat plants were hand clipped to imitate mouse damage. The grazing effect of mice was estimated using the population density, daily intake per mouse and the proportion of wheat grain and plant tissue in the diet to determine yield loss. The mean yield loss caused by mice was 12.4% (±5.4S.E.; range −0.5 to 96%). There were 7/21 years when yield loss was >5%. A damage/abundance relationship was constructed and a sigmoidal curve explained 97% of variation when accounting for different trajectories of mouse densities from sowing to harvest. The majority of damage occurred around emergence of the crop when mouse densities were >100 mice ha⁻¹. This is the first time that field data on mouse density and a crop simulation model have been combined to estimate yield loss. The model examines the efficacy of baiting and how to estimate EILs. Because the broadscale application of zinc phosphide is cheap and effective, the EIL is very low (<1% yield loss). The APSIM model is highly flexible and could be used for other vertebrate pests in a range of crops or pastures to develop density/damage relationships and to assist with management.