Insuring Southeast Asian commercial forests: Fire risk analysis and the potential for use of data in risk pricing and reduction of forest fire risk

The author uses his own data gleaned from over 10 years of commercial forestry insurance across the world to propose that despite a low intrinsic fire risk across most of Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, commercial fire losses are unacceptably high, and could be reduced substantially within the current financial legal and political framework within which forestry companies operate. Opening with a statement about the dearth of forest fire loss data in the commercial sector, it is observed that the consequent inability of general insurers to estimate the rate of fire loss leads to very low insurance participation in forestry within Indonesia. A summary is then provided of the financial and environmental benefits of insurance participation in commercial forestry were this situation to be changed. A short discussion on risk perceptions is introduced to make the point that without reliable commercial forest fire loss data, risk perceptions of fire exposure in Southeast Asia by the financial sector, including insurers, is a barrier to risk transfer and investment. While real fire risk and perceived fire risk for Indonesia seem at present to be in agreement, the paper challenges that this should the case. Comparisons are made with different parts of the world with the knowledge that, in commercial terms, plantations in the low latitudes behave similarly everywhere in terms of fire causes, fire propagation factors, and characteristics of plantation or managed mixed forest fires. A review of the fire sizes within commercial forests is a good indicator of the efficiency of fire management strategies, and profiles from a high fire risk territory and Indonesia are compared. Using commercial and unidentified data the author then demonstrates that commercial growers in Indonesia have a high annual rate of forest fire loss and may also have a significant catastrophe fire exposure. This ‘cat’ exposure is far greater than for equivalent plantations in clearly higher fire risk environments. These conclusions are and should be discussed with forestry companies to change attitude and investment levels. Practical points for improved plantation fire management are made along with comments about the resources required. A parallel discussion then reviews fire risk assessment and management by the insurers to prevent their own ‘forest fire’ losses if they are to get further involved with the provision of Indonesian commercial forest risk transfer. The explanation of how insurers price risk within a portfolio helps identify the specific data needed for a proper risk management strategy to be developed.     

Prairie grass establishment on calcareous reclaimed mine soil

Reclaimed Appalachian surface mined lands have difficulty in sustaining native deciduous forest communities. Establishing prairie communities could increase ecosystem function; however, a native model system does not exist. We evaluated establishment of 15 North American prairie grasses as monocultures on reclaimed mine soil in southeast Ohio in four randomized complete blocks planted May 2005 and 2006. Population density was assessed 30 d after planting (30 DAP) and in October of the planting year (YR1) and second year following planting (YR2) and expressed as percentage of viable seeds sown (PVSS). Canopy cover of nonnative species reestablishing in the plots was measured in 2007. Eastern gamagrass ( L.) population was >50 PVSS in all censuses. Western wheatgrass [ (Rydb.) A. L?ve] was initially 7 PVSS at 30 DAP, but increased to 154 PVSS by YR2 from rhizomes spreading into gaps. Big bluestem ( Vitman) was 7 PVSS at 30 DAP and 4 PVSS at YR2. Blue grama [ (Willd. ex Kunth) Lag. ex Griffiths] and sideoats grama [ (Michx.) Torr.] did not survive past YR1. Gaps left from poor stand establishment were primarily recolonized by nonnative Kentucky bluegrass ( L.) in the 2005 planting and birdsfoot trefoil ( L.) in the 2006 planting, but was least in eastern gamagrass and tall dropseed [ (P. Beauv.) Kunth]. This research demonstrates the potential for increasing diversity and species richness on mine soil habitats with regionally native grasses that could increase functional quality through ecological resilience.     

Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Pollution,habitat loss,fishing, and climate change as critical threats to penguins

Cumulative human impacts across the world's oceans are considerable. We therefore examined a single model taxonomic group, the penguins (Spheniscidae), to explore how marine species and communities might be at risk of decline or extinction in the southern hemisphere. We sought to determine the most important threats to penguins and to suggest means to mitigate these threats. Our review has relevance to other taxonomic groups in the southern hemisphere and in northern latitudes, where human impacts are greater. Our review was based on an expert assessment and literature review of all 18 penguin species; 49 scientists contributed to the process. For each penguin species, we considered their range and distribution, population trends, and main anthropogenic threats over the past approximately 250 years. These threats were harvesting adults for oil, skin, and feathers and as bait for crab and rock lobster fisheries; harvesting of eggs; terrestrial habitat degradation; marine pollution; fisheries bycatch and resource competition; environmental variability and climate change; and toxic algal poisoning and disease. Habitat loss, pollution, and fishing, all factors humans can readily mitigate, remain the primary threats for penguin species. Their future resilience to further climate change impacts will almost certainly depend on addressing current threats to existing habitat degradation on land and at sea. We suggest protection of breeding habitat, linked to the designation of appropriately scaled marine reserves, including in the High Seas, will be critical for the future conservation of penguins. However, large‐scale conservation zones are not always practical or politically feasible and other ecosystem‐based management methods that include spatial zoning, bycatch mitigation, and robust harvest control must be developed to maintain marine biodiversity and ensure that ecosystem functioning is maintained across a variety of scales. Contaminación, Pérdida de Hábitat, Pesca y Cambio Climático como Amenazas Críticas para los Pingüinos     

The national GIS demonstrator of common lands for England and Wales

This paper describes the construction of a Geographical Information System (GIS) for common land tracts in England and Wales. In particular we highlight the problems inherent in combining data sets which have not been designed with GIS approaches in mind. The paper documents, through this case study, a number of key principles for researchers faced with developing databases of this nature and the limitations of the resulting database in the light of such concerns. In doing so, we draw attention to the types of techniques that can be developed to ensure users do not use the data in unwarranted situations and so guard against potential misuse. Such statements, it is concluded, are essential components in studies where data from several different sources are combined in a GIS environment to address rural planning issues.     

Polygyny in the Neotropical termite Nasutitermes corniger: life history consequences of queen mutualism

Summary ecological aspects of monogyny and polygyny in social insect colonies are important in comparing individual queen reproductive success. Inseminated, fecund, multiple foundresses are common in some groups of ants and eusocial wasps, but true polygyny in termites has not previously been studied. One third of Nasutitermes corniger (Isoptera: Termitidae) colonies sampled in areas of young second growth in Panama contained from 2–33 primary queens (not supplementary or neotenic reproductives). All queens in polygynous associations were fully pigmented, physogastric egg layers within a single royal cell. Multiple kings were found less frequently; true polyandry is apparently restricted to immature polygynous colonies.Data on queen weight and morphological features, and on colony composition, show that queens in polygynous nests are young and that a transition from polygyny to monogyny probably occurs after several years. The escalated growth rate of multiple queen colonies removes them from the vulnerable incipient colony size class more rapidly than colonies initiated by a single foundress, and gives them sufficient neuter support staff (workers and soldiers) to enable earlier production of fertile alates. Using a population model (Leslie matrix) I construct isoclines of equal population growth which show values of early age class probability of survival and reproductive output favoring monogyny or polygyny under individual selection. This model of queen mutualism accounts for the risk of a female in a polygynous group not succeeding as the final surviving queen.Multiple primary queens are considered rare in termites, but a review of the literature demonstrates that they may be more widespread than is currently recognized. Polygyny in termites has received scant attention but is of significance as an example of a further ecological and evolutionary convergence between the phylogenetically independent orders Isoptera and Hymenoptera.     

Building phenological models from presence/absence data for a butterfly fauna.

Species phenology is increasingly being used to explore the effects of climate change and other environmental stressors. Long-term monitoring data sets are essential for understanding both patterns manifest by individual species and more complex patterns evident at the community level. This study used records of 78 butterfly species observed on 626 days across 27 years at a site in northern California, USA, to build quadratic logistic regression models of the observation probability of each species for each day of the year. Daily species probabilities were summed to develop a potential aggregate species richness (PASR) model, indicating expected daily species richness. Daily positive and negative contributions to PASR were calculated, which can be used to target optimum sampling time frames. Residuals to PASR indicate a rate of decline of 0.12 species per year over the course of the study. When PASR was calculated for wet and dry years, wet years were found to delay group phenology by up to 17 days and reduce the maximum annual expected species from 32.36 to 30. Three tests to determine how well the PASR model reflected the butterfly fauna dynamics were all positive: We correlated probabilities developed with species presence/absence data to observed abundance by species, tested species' predicted phenological patterns against known biological characteristics, and compared the PASR curve to a spline-fitted curve calculated from the original species richness observations. Modeling individual species' flight windows was possible from presence/absence data, an approach that could be used on other similar records for butterfly communities with seasonal phenologies, and for common species with far fewer dates than used here. It also provided a method to assess sample frequency guidelines for other butterfly monitoring programs.     

Air concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in 2002–2004 at a rural site in the Great Lakes

Atmospheric PBDEs were measured on a monthly basis in 2002–2004 at Point Petre, a rural site in the Great Lakes. Average air concentrations were 7.0 ± 13 pg m^?3 for Σ₁₄BDE (excluding BDE-209), and 1.8 ± 1.5 pg m^?3 for BDE-209. Concentrations of 3 dominant congeners (i.e., BDE-47, 99, and 209) were comparable to previous measurements at remote/rural sites around the Great Lakes, but much lower than those at urban areas. Weak temperature dependence and strong linear correlations between relatively volatile congeners suggest importance of advective inputs of gaseous species. The significant correlation between BDE-209 and 183 implies their transport inputs associated with particles. Particle-bound percentages were found greater for highly brominated congeners than less brominated ones. These percentages increase with decreasing ambient temperatures. The observed gas/particle partitioning is consistent with laboratory measurements and fits well to the Junge–Pankow model. Using air mass back-trajectories, atmospheric transport to Point Petre was estimated as 76% for BDE-47, 67% for BDE-99, and 70% for BDE-209 from west–northwest and southwest directions. During the same time period, similar congener profiles and concentration levels were found at Alert in the Canadian High Arctic. Different inter-annual variations between Point Petre and Alert indicate that emissions from other regions than North America could also contribute PBDEs in the Arctic. In contrast to weak temperature effect at Point Petre, significant temperature dependence in the summertime implies volatilization emissions of PBDEs at Alert. Meanwhile, episodic observations in the wintertime were likely associated with enhanced inputs through long-range transport during the Arctic Haze period.