Building phenological models from presence/absence data for a butterfly fauna.

Species phenology is increasingly being used to explore the effects of climate change and other environmental stressors. Long-term monitoring data sets are essential for understanding both patterns manifest by individual species and more complex patterns evident at the community level. This study used records of 78 butterfly species observed on 626 days across 27 years at a site in northern California, USA, to build quadratic logistic regression models of the observation probability of each species for each day of the year. Daily species probabilities were summed to develop a potential aggregate species richness (PASR) model, indicating expected daily species richness. Daily positive and negative contributions to PASR were calculated, which can be used to target optimum sampling time frames. Residuals to PASR indicate a rate of decline of 0.12 species per year over the course of the study. When PASR was calculated for wet and dry years, wet years were found to delay group phenology by up to 17 days and reduce the maximum annual expected species from 32.36 to 30. Three tests to determine how well the PASR model reflected the butterfly fauna dynamics were all positive: We correlated probabilities developed with species presence/absence data to observed abundance by species, tested species' predicted phenological patterns against known biological characteristics, and compared the PASR curve to a spline-fitted curve calculated from the original species richness observations. Modeling individual species' flight windows was possible from presence/absence data, an approach that could be used on other similar records for butterfly communities with seasonal phenologies, and for common species with far fewer dates than used here. It also provided a method to assess sample frequency guidelines for other butterfly monitoring programs.     

Air concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in 2002–2004 at a rural site in the Great Lakes

Atmospheric PBDEs were measured on a monthly basis in 2002–2004 at Point Petre, a rural site in the Great Lakes. Average air concentrations were 7.0 ± 13 pg m^?3 for Σ₁₄BDE (excluding BDE-209), and 1.8 ± 1.5 pg m^?3 for BDE-209. Concentrations of 3 dominant congeners (i.e., BDE-47, 99, and 209) were comparable to previous measurements at remote/rural sites around the Great Lakes, but much lower than those at urban areas. Weak temperature dependence and strong linear correlations between relatively volatile congeners suggest importance of advective inputs of gaseous species. The significant correlation between BDE-209 and 183 implies their transport inputs associated with particles. Particle-bound percentages were found greater for highly brominated congeners than less brominated ones. These percentages increase with decreasing ambient temperatures. The observed gas/particle partitioning is consistent with laboratory measurements and fits well to the Junge–Pankow model. Using air mass back-trajectories, atmospheric transport to Point Petre was estimated as 76% for BDE-47, 67% for BDE-99, and 70% for BDE-209 from west–northwest and southwest directions. During the same time period, similar congener profiles and concentration levels were found at Alert in the Canadian High Arctic. Different inter-annual variations between Point Petre and Alert indicate that emissions from other regions than North America could also contribute PBDEs in the Arctic. In contrast to weak temperature effect at Point Petre, significant temperature dependence in the summertime implies volatilization emissions of PBDEs at Alert. Meanwhile, episodic observations in the wintertime were likely associated with enhanced inputs through long-range transport during the Arctic Haze period.     

Experimental Studies of the Conditions of Exposure to Carcinogens for Lung Cancer Induction

A method is described for the experimental induction of lung cancer. Syrian golden hamsters, receiving repeated intratracheal administrations of benzo[a]pyrene in particulate form carried by an inert dust, develop a high incidence of bronchogenic carcinoma. The conditions of exposure to the carcinogen, involving penetration and retention of carcinogen particles in lung tissues with the dust, are of prime imvortance in the determination of the results. Instillations of the same carcinogen in other media did not induce lung tumors. The relative importance of the identification of carcinogenic materials in air pollution and of the conditions of exposure in the origin of lung cancer is discussed.     

Using Remote Sensing to Reassess the Mass Mortality of Diadema antillarum 1983–1984

Abstract: The 1983–1984 mass mortality of the sea urchin Diadema antillarum remains one of the most severe die-offs ever recorded in the Caribbean. Before 1983, the herbivore D. antillarum was pervasive on coral reefs in the region. Nine months after first detection of the mass mortality, 95% of the urchins had perished, and algal cover of coral increased between 100% and 250%. A water-borne pathogen was hypothesized as the causative agent, but it was never isolated. To date, surface current patterns have been used exclusively to explain both the cause and the distribution patterns of the mortality event. Using archived satellite images, we re-examined the water-borne pathogen hypothesis and investigated whether other mechanisms could also account for the dissemination pattern in some areas. In addition, archived satellite images were utilized to detect changes in coral reef reflectance. For infections in the Gulf of Mexico and Bermuda, satellite images confirm that surface currents are likely responsible for the distribution of the pathogen. For infections in the eastern Caribbean (Curacao, U.S. Virgin Islands, Barbados), however, another mechanism, possibly ballast water exchange, must be considered because the surface current and infection patterns do not coincide. Changes in coral reflectance were detectable from Landsat thermatic mapping data before and after the mass mortality and correspond to the change in algal cover. Results from our study demonstrate the potential of satellite images for use in determining connectivity between regions of the Caribbean and in detecting changes in coral reef cover.     

Effects of sample holding time on concentrations of microorganisms in water samples.

This research investigated the effects of extending the holding time of samples for microbial analysis beyond the standard of 24 hours for purposes such as watershed characterization. Experiments were conducted with both sanitary wastewater and stormwater samples. The refrigerated samples (4 degrees C) were held for up to 9 days before being analyzed for two pathogens (Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus) and five indicator organisms (total coliform, fecal coliform, fecal streptococcus, enterococcus, and Escherichia coli) by membrane filtration. The concentrations (as colony-forming units per 100 mL) were normalized by log10(transformation and used in subsequent statistical analysis testing for significant differences. The results suggested that the concentrations of microorganisms in water samples analyzed on days 1 and 2 did not vary significantly in 8 of 13 analyses. The results of a field study concluded that the concentration of fecal coliform did not change significantly between 7 hours holding time and greater than 24 hours holding time for fecal coliform.     

Gillnet illumination as an effective measure to reduce sea turtle bycatch

The growing demand for fish around the world is an immediate threat to marine megafauna that are unintentionally captured in commercial and artisanal fishery operations. Bycatch mitigation strategies, such as turtle excluder devices, circle hooks, and net illumination, have successfully reduced this risk in some fisheries. We explored the effectiveness of gillnet illumination to reduce sea turtle captures in 2 artisanal fisheries (Mankoadze and Winneba, Ghana) under normal fishing conditions. We first quantified sea turtle bycatch in Ghana's artisanal gillnet fishery from 15 boats for 12 months. We then quantified catch of targeted species and sea turtle bycatch from 20 boats for 15 months (7427 net sets). For 10 of these boats, we placed a Centro Economy green light (1 LED) at each 10-m interval on the net. We also quantified target catch and sea turtle bycatch from 30 boats for 8 months (2250 net sets). In 15 of these boats, a Centro Deluxe green light (3 LEDs) was installed at 15-m intervals. Boats with economy lights and those with deluxe lights both exhibited an 81% decrease in sea turtle captures (W = 1, p < 0.001, n = 20; W = 215, p < 0.001, n = 30, respectively) compared with control boats without lights. Illuminated nets resulted in fewer turtle catches for leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea), olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea), and green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) (p < 0.05 for all species). Target catch (mass) (W = 53, p = 0.853 n = 20; W = 76, p = 0.449, n = 23) and value (W = 50, p = 1, n = 20; W = 69, p = 0.728, = 23) were not different across treatments. Our study affirms net illumination can reduce capture rates of 3 species of sea turtles, including the imperiled leatherback. Gear modification methods can successfully reduce bycatch if they are affordable and have broad applications for multiple species in different fisheries.     

Sustaining recycling: identification and application of limiting factors in kerbside recycling areas

SUMMARY

Levels of recycling in the UK are substantially poorer than other European countries and American states. One explanation for low participation rates, has been the failure by some local authorities to bridge the gap between people's attitudes and behaviour. Research has shown that a gap exists between people's environmental attitudes and action. Previous experiments have employed antecedent and consequence conditions to influence the factors that limit environmental action, in an attempt to close the gap between attitudes and behaviour. This paper reports on the research carried out by Cardiff University and De Montfort University, which has attempted to identify and manipulate the factors that influence whether or not someone recycles in the Cities of Cardiff and Leicester. Different experiments were applied to different socio-demographic groups. Questionnaires were used to assess attitudes and behaviour before and after the implementation of a series of experiments. The research indicated that the interventions were more effective at increasing levels of recycling among existing recyclers rather than prompting non-recyclers to start recycling. The interventions differed in terms of their effect upon participation in particular sociodemographic groups. Key factors identified from the research could be equally applicable to other contexts of individual environmental action.     

An application of a conditional logistic regression to study the effects of safety belts, principal impact points, and car weights on drivers' fatalities

In addition to experimental trials in automotive factories, there is a fundamental need to monitor real people involved in real motor vehicle collisions to determine the impact of automotive design characteristics on injury mortality. To aid in designing future safety features for drivers' seats, data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) were used to assess the effects of safety belts, directions of crash impacts, age, sex, and car weights on motor vehicle injury fatalities. Furthermore, because the FARS includes only accidents in which there was at least one fatality, this paper introduces a multivariate approach — a logistic regression conditioned on each accident —to avoid the sampling biases inherent in the FARS. The resulting model is used to quantify the relations among the safety belts, the directions of crash impacts, and vehicle weights and their effects on fatalities. Recause the proposed approach allows researchers to study many important variables simultaneously and eliminates the biases resulting from many possible confounders, the estimates presented in this paper are considered to be more precise and more firmly established than earlier estimates. The new approach to analyzing the FARS data will also be useful for investigating the effects of other risk factors or automotive characteristics on crash fatalities.