Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.     

Investigating the capacity of an activated sludge process to reduce volatile organic compounds and odor emissions.

The effects of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) diffusion into activated sludge (AS) on odor and volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in offgas were studied over an 8-week period. Most VOCs detected in the offgas of both aeration tanks were aromatic hydrocarbons. The VOC concentrations generally decreased when H2S was introduced to the AS compared with the control, indicating a negative effect of H2S on VOC removal. Two volatile organic sulfur compounds present in the test AS offgas showed an increase followed by a decrease during H2S peak loads. Six VOCs and odor concentration increased during the introduction of an H2S peak; however no correlation was observed between H2S and odor concentration. The increase in odor concentration resulted from the increase in the concentration of six aromatic VOCs, which had their removal slowed down during a 100-ppmv H2S peak. Activated sludge diffusion provides effective H2S removal with minimal affect on odor emissions.     

气候变化对波罗的海入海河流流量的影响

进入波罗的海的河流流量是在一个面积约160万km2的流域中各种不同气候状况下产生的.波罗的海流域气候的变化不仅影响入海淡水的总量,而且对这些水源的分配亦有影响.利用水文模拟,分析了未来气候变化对波罗的海入海径流的影响.使用了瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)中的4种不同的气候变化情景.根据这些不同的气候情景,全部入海河流总的平均年入海量的变化范围为当前入海量的-2%～+15%.波罗的海不同亚区的入海量的变化是大不相同的,其中最剧烈的年均变化范围是-30%～+40%.但是,所有评价的气候情景的共同点是总体趋势为来自波罗的海流域南部地区入海流量减少,北部地区入海量增加.     

The biogenic content of process streams from mechanical–biological treatment plants producing solid recovered fuel. Do the manual sorting and selective dissolution determination methods correlate?

The carbon emissions trading market has created a need for standard methods for the determination of biogenic content (χ_B) in solid recovered fuels (SRF). We compare the manual sorting (MSM) and selective dissolution methods (SDM), as amended by recent research, for a range of process streams from a mechanical–biological treatment (MBT) plant. The two methods provide statistically different biogenic content values, as expressed on a dry mass basis, uncorrected for ash content. However, they correlate well (r² > 0.9) and the relative difference between them was <5% for χ_B between 21% ^w/w_d and 72% ^w/w_d (uncorrected for ash content). This range includes the average SRF biogenic content of ca. 68% ^w/w_d. Methodological improvements are discussed in light of recent studies. The repeatability of the SDM is characterised by relative standard deviations on triplicates of <2.5% for the studied population.     

Detecting pigments from colourful eggshells of extinct birds

The known chemical basis of diverse avian eggshell coloration is generated by the same two classes of tetrapyrrole pigments in most living birds. We aimed to extend the evolutionary scope of these patterns by detecting pigments from extinct birds’ eggs. In our samples biliverdin was successfully extracted from subfossil shell fragments of the blue-green egg-laying upland moa Megalapteryx didinus, while protoporphyrin was extracted from the beige eggs of two other extinct moa species. Our data on pigment detection from eggshells of other extant paleognath birds, together with published information on other modern lineages, confirm tetrapyrroles as ubiquitous and conserved pigments contributing to diverse eggshell colours throughout avian evolution.     

Sizing and Costing of Electrostatic Precipitators

This is the second of a two-part article that reviews electrostatic precipitation theory, presents size estimating methods, and gives costing procedures for a variety of electrostatic precipitator (ESP) types and sizes. Part I of the article, which appeared in the April 1988 issue of JAPCA, discussed theory and sizing; this part presents costing. Information is given for estimating total capital investment including separate costs for the bare ESP (five types) and auxiliaries. Factors are given for installation and for indirect costs. Direct and indirect annual costs are discussed. An example problem is given.     

An Evaluation of Multiple Objective Decision Support Weighting Techniques in Natural Resource Management

Multiple objective decision support (MODS) is a structured framework for evaluating decision alternatives against multiple, and often conflicting, criteria. Its ability to handle complex trade-offs in a variety of quantitative and qualitative units gives it much potential in the field of natural resource management (NRM). A key component of MODS is the process used to obtain information from decision makers on the relative importance of evaluative criteria. Ranking algorithms then use this information to determine the relative value of each decision alternative. This paper explores how practising community based NRM decision makers respond to five generic methods for weighting the criteria. It presents a study in which 55 decision makers throughout five regions in Queensland, Australia, applied MODS to evaluate environmental projects seeking funding under the Australian Natural Heritage Trust. Weighting methods applied include fixed point scoring, rating, ordinal ranking, a graphical method and paired comparisons. Decision makers evaluated each weighting method in terms of ease of use and of how much it helped clarify the decision problem. Results show that decision makers felt uncomfortable applying fixed point scoring and generally preferred to express their preferences through ordinal ranking. This has implications for the types of ranking algorithms that can be applied to evaluate the decision alternatives.     

Do national levels of individualism and internal locus of control relate to well‐being: an ecological level international study

Data were collected from managers in 24 nations/territories on work locus of control (LOC), individualism–collectivism (I–C), and well‐being (job satisfaction, absence of psychological strain, and absence of physical strain). There were significant mean differences across samples on all five of these measures, and consistent with our hypothesis, at the ecological or sample mean level well‐being was associated with an internal locus of control. However, contrary to our hypothesis, well‐being was not associated with I–C, despite a strong correlation between I–C and LOC. Findings at the ecological level were consistent with the literature concerning the salutary effects of control on well‐being. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do laboratory salinity tolerances of freshwater animals correspond with their field salinity?

The degree to which laboratory derived measures of salinity tolerance reflect the field distributions of freshwater biota is uncertain. In this paper we compare laboratory-derived acute salinity tolerance (LC(50) values) of freshwater macroinvertebrates (range 5.5-76 mS/cm) and fish (range 2.7-82 mS/cm) from southeastern Australia with the salinity from which they have been collected in the field. Only 4% of the macroinvertebrates were collected at salinity levels substantially higher than their 72-h LC(50) obtained from directly transferring animals from low salinity water to the water they were tested (direct transfer LC(50)). This LC(50) value was correlated with the maximum salinity at which a species had been collected. For common macroinvertebrates, the maximum field salinity was approximated by the direct transfer 72-h LC(50). For adult freshwater fish, 21% of species were collected at salinities substantially greater than their acute direct transfer LC(50) and there was a weak relationship between these two variables. Although there was a weak correlation between the direct transfer LC(50) of early life stages of freshwater fish and the maximum field salinity, 58% of the field distribution were in higher than their LC(50) values. In contrast, LC(50) determined from experiments that acclimated adult fish to higher salinity (slow acclimation) provided a better indication of the field distribution: with only one fish species (7%) being in conflict with their maximum field salinity and a strong positive relationship between these variables. This study shows that laboratory measures of acute salinity tolerance can reflect the maximum salinity that macroinvertebrate and fish species inhabit and are consistent with some anecdotal observations from other studies.