五氯苯酚对原生动物群落的毒性研究

五氯苯酚(PCP)是一种曾被广泛使用的木材防腐剂、杀菌剂和除草剂,目前已经造成了世界范围内土壤和水体的污染.以生物曝气池原生动物群落为靶生物对五氯苯酚进行了12小时急性毒性试验研究,结果表明,此原生动物群落急性中毒的最大无致死和最小全致死浓度范围是0.4￣40mg·L-1,半数致死浓度为2.40mg·L-1.在PCP染毒条件下,原生动物群落结构表现出简单化趋势,随着PCP浓度的增加,原生动物种类越来越少.肉足类原生动物对PCP耐受能力最差,鞭毛类稍强,纤毛类耐受能力最好,且PCP浓度越大,其耐受优势越明显.     

基于GIS的台风灾害损失评估模型研究

由于台风灾害所造成的损失有些是无法用精确的数学模型来描述,其损失可能是一个区间值。为准确及时地了解台风灾害过程中可能造成灾害损失等级的大小,选择了降水量、降水强度、最大风速、经济易损性作为评价的指标。采用可拓分析方法,将评价指标及其特征值作为物元,通过计算综合关联度判断灾害损失的等级;建立基于GIS的台风灾害损失评估模型,以实现台风灾害的动态评估。     

突发事件连锁反应的实证研究——以2008年初我国南方冰雪灾害为例

从突发事件连锁反应分析,认为2008年初我国南方的冰雪灾害是由自然灾害引发的连锁反应事件。选择了新浪网冰雪灾害报道专题的近4 000篇报道作为数据源,从时间、空间和事件角度揭示了此次冰雪灾害的演化过程,并分析了事件扩散的原因。     

全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃对长江寸滩站以上流域径流的影响

基于多领域间影响模型比较计划推荐使用的4个全球气候模式GCM数据（GFDL、Had、IPSL和MIROC),分别驱动SWIM、SWAT、HBV和VIC水文模型模拟长江寸滩站以上流域径流量,研究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下研究区径流量变化。研究表明：（1）在全球升温1.5℃时,水文模型和GCMs模拟的年径流量增幅分别在 5.5%~8.3%和3.5%~11.4%之间;在全球升温2.0℃时,水文模型模拟的径流量增幅在4.8%~6.7%,IPSL模拟的年径流量呈微弱减少趋势,HAD和MIROC模拟的年径流量分别增加6.7%和19%。来自GCMs的不确定性分别是来自水文模型的2.6和 2.1倍;（2）在两个不同升温条件下,月径流量集合平均的占比与基准期各月径流量的占比表现出高度一致性,但是升温1.5℃和2.0℃时的月最大径流量占比分别为47.8%和40.5%,表明在未来升温时段内,月径流量占比变化并不显著,但是极端月径流的变化较大;（3）全球升温1.5℃时,枯、丰水期日径流量增幅分别为3%和10%,但枯、丰水期径流贡献率变化幅度都不大。全球升温2.0℃时,枯、丰水期增幅分别为3.6%和8%,但枯、丰水期径流贡献率都呈下降趋势。全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃时,50年一遇（P=2%）的洪水流量,将分别比基准期增加26.3%和20.7%。基准期50年一遇的洪水将可能变成20年一遇,多年平均最大日径流量较基准期也有增加。     

水系沉积物重金属分析前处理方法

建立了水系沉积物中6种重金属分析的前处理方法,研究了样品粒径、消解前处理对测定结果的影响,对方法适用性作出评价,并对实际样品进行测定。结果表明:通过Hg元素含量的测定,粒径为0.147 mm的沉积物粒径可满足分析要求;采用微波-硝酸-盐酸-氢氟酸消解、ICP-MS法,对5种不同类型沉积物标准样品的6种重金属的测定结果显示,该方法精密度好、准确度高。利用建立的方法测定广西某河流湖库沉积物样品,6种元素测定结果 RSD为1.57%~11.1%,加标回收率大于74.4%。     

环境标准样品在国家地表水采测分离工作中的应用

按照《国家地表水环境质量监测网监测任务作业指导书(试行)》中实验室分析测试的质量保证和质量控制要求,结合江苏省南京环境监测中心的实际工作,综合分析2017年10月—2018年8月间国家地表水采测分离工作中环境标准样品在样品测试准确度验证、检测人员能力确认、检测设备期间核查及关键化学试剂检查等方面的应用情况。为保障环境监测结果量值溯源的统一性、准确性、一致性和可比性,提出丰富水环境标准样品的浓度水平、解决标准样品供需不平衡问题、改善消耗量大的标准样品操作方法、建立环境标准样品使用信息共享平台等实践建议,为合理提升环境标准样品应用效能、有效保证水环境监测数据质量提供参考。     

Spatial and temporal variation of soil organic carbon in the North China Plain

The organic carbon, permeability test, grain size, chemical composition, and mineral composition were analyzed for 147 samples collected from the Luan River catchment, Hebei province, China, to quantitatively characterize the effects of land use, climate change, sedimentary environment, mineral composition, and chemical composition on the spatial and temporal variation of soil organic carbon (SOC). The results indicate that there was higher SOC content and stronger variation in the south plain than in the northern low mountain. The effects of land use, climate change, and sedimentary environment on SOC distribution were greater than the effects of mineral composition and chemical composition. The cropping systems in the Luan River catchment resulted in significant difference in SOC concentration between the south plain and north mountain. The precipitation mainly transmitted its effects through the sedimentary environment to SOC, which caused the stronger temporal variation in SOC from June to October in the south plain. The north mountain did not have significant temporal variation because of the lower hydraulic conductivity of the sedimentary sequence. The spatial variation of SOC was correlated with land use, and their temporal variation was attributed to climate change and sedimentary environment. Apart from land use, the decision maker can also affect the organic carbon mineral and sequence through the sedimentary environment.     

农户认知、外部环境与绿色农业生产意愿——基于湖北省632个农户调研数据

以湖北省632个农户调研数据为实证,在考虑绿色农业生产外部环境的情况下,结合农户对绿色农业生产的认知和农户特征因素,利用logistic回归探析农户绿色农业生产意愿的影响因素。结果表明:（1）农业收入占家庭总收入比重、绿色技术的经济效益和了解程度、农村环境污染现状、政府补贴都对农户绿色农业生产意愿具有正向影响;（2）农户年龄、绿色技术采用风险和政府管制则会减弱农户的绿色生产意愿。因此在推进农业生产绿色化转型的过程中,应加强职业农民培育和绿色农业生产技术的宣传培训,确保绿色技术的适用可靠性。同时政府应加强完善农业绿色生产制度,通过激励政策替代管制和惩罚机制,引导和规范农户绿色农业生产行为     

Pathway and policy analysis to China’s deep decarbonization

The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change, which further clarifies the long-term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change. For China, promoting the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions as soon as possible is not only the core task of achieving the medium- and long-term goals and strategies to address climate change, but also the inevitable requirement for ensuring the sustainable development of economy and society. Based on the analysis of the historical trends of the economy and social development, as well as society, energy consumption, and key end-use sectors in China, this paper studies the deep carbon emission reduction potential of carbon emission of in energy, industry, building, and transportation and other sectors with “bottom-up” modeling analysis and proposes a medium- and long-term deep decarbonization pathway based on key technologies’ mitigation potentials for China. It is found that under deep decarbonization pathway, China will successfully realize the goals set in China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of achieving carbon emissions peak around 2030 and lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 60–65% from the 2005 level. From 2030 onward, the development of nonfossil energy will further accelerates, and the share of nonfossil energies in primary energy will amounts to about 44% by 2050. Combined with the acceleration of low-carbon transformation in end-use sectors including industry, building, and transportation, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 will fall to the level before 2005, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decreases by more than 90% from the 2005 level. To ensure the realization of the deep decarbonization pathway, this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives, including intensifying the total carbon dioxide emissions cap and strengthening the related institutional systems and regulations, improving the incentive policies for industrial low-carbon development, enhancing the role of the market mechanism, and advocating low-carbon life and consumption patterns.     

Using the IPAT identity and decoupling analysis to estimate water footprint variations for five major food crops in China from 1978 to 2010

Evaluations of water footprint (WF) used to enhance performance of policies on water utilization will benefit from combining WF analysis with methods from sustainability analysis. For this purpose, this paper analyzes the WF of China’s five main food crops, which together account for roughly 33 % of the nation’s water consumption. We assess distributional equity at the provincial scale and use the IPAT identity and a decoupling analysis to assess the scale of both national and provincial WF consumption, the factors influencing the WF fluctuation, and the efficiency of water allocation. Results show that although it is difficult in the short term to end the unsustainable WFs of China’s five main food crops, more efficient allocation can be achieved through appropriate agricultural policy modification. In the long term, distributional equity at the provincial level must be the key factor in achieving sustainable agriculture in China.