Risk on the ramble: The international transfer of risk and vulnerability

In this paper the purpose is to discuss a concept of technology that can explain how the transfer of technology implies the risk of new failures, misuse, accidents and unhealthy workplaces. Production technologies are often transformed through a steady stream of incremental changes appropriate to their social context, and the technology will therefore gradually acquire some contextually dependent preconditions for use. These preconditions will most probably be revealed when a technology is transferred from one context to another. Thus, a technology transfer project may trigger a long process of re-innovations just to make the technology fully operational in its new context. In a transfer process, technological risks may arise due to incomplete transfer of mastering capacity; mismatch between transferred technology and the environment; transfer of latent conditions for failure; and the transformation of latent conditions or known risks when the technology is installed in a new environment. Longitudinal data from the Norwegian petroleum industry indicates that the first phases in a transfer process will create high technological risks. It will take many years before the transferred technologies are adapted to the new context and the risk level has been normalised.     

Sulfide assimilation by ectosymbionts of the sessile ciliate, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zoothamnium niveum</Emphasis>

We investigated the constraints on sulfide uptake by bacterial ectosymbionts on the marine peritrich ciliate Zoothamnium niveum by a combination of experimental and numerical methods. Protists with symbionts were collected on large blocks of mangrove-peat. The blocks were placed in a flow cell with flow adjusted to in situ velocity. The water motion around the colonies was then characterized by particle tracking velocimetry. This shows that the feather-shaped colony of Z. niveum generates a unidirectional flow of seawater through the colony with no recirculation. The source of the feeding current was the free-flowing water although the size of the colonies suggests that they live partly submerged in the diffusive boundary layer. We showed that the filtered volume allows Z. niveum to assimilate sufficient sulfide to sustain the symbiosis at a few micromoles per liter in ambient concentration. Numerical modeling shows that sulfide oxidizing bacteria on the surfaces of Z. niveum can sustain 100-times higher sulfide uptake than bacteria on flat surfaces, such as microbial mats. The study demonstrates that the filter feeding zooids of Z. niveum are preadapted to be prime habitats for sulfide oxidizing bacteria due to Z. niveum’s habitat preference and due to the feeding current. Z. niveum is capable of exploiting low concentrations of sulfide in near norm-oxic seawater. This links its otherwise dissimilar habitats and makes it functionally similar to invertebrates with thiotrophic symbionts in filtering organs. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The rarity of twins: a result of an evolutionary battle between mothers and daughters—or do they agree?

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that parent–offspring conflict over parental investment might have led to the rarity of dizygotic twins in humans. We explored the theoretical prediction that twins maximize their inclusive fitness by the death of a co-twin, while mothers of twins maximize fitness by raising both twins to independence. We used life history data (1700–1900) from two parishes in Central Norway to compare differences in inclusive fitness (measured as number of children reared to the age of 16 years, using Hamilton's rule) between twins and mothers of twins. Our results show that twins maximize their inclusive fitness by the death of a co-twin, while mothers of twins raise more children by rearing both twins to adulthood. However, because twins growing up as singletons may produce higher or at least equal number of offspring than the sum of the two twins growing up together, mothers might gain more grandchildren by allowing twins to grow up as singletons. To conclude, both selfish twins and their mothers might benefit by the death of a co-twin, indicating that there is no parent–offspring conflict responsible for the rareness of twins in these human populations. Finally, we discuss the results in the light of “The Insurance Egg Hypothesis” and “The Natural Selection Hypothesis”.     

Spatial heterogeneity in distribution and ecology of Western Palearctic birds

Species vary in abundance and heterogeneity of spatial distribution, and the ecological and evolutionary consequences of such variability are poorly known. Evolutionary adaptation to heterogeneously distributed resources may arise from local adaptation with individuals of such locally adapted populations rarely dispersing long distances and hence having small populations and small overall ranges. We quantified mean population density and spatial heterogeneity in population density of 197 bird species across 12 similarly sized regions in the Western Palearctic. Variance in population density among regions differed significantly from a Poisson distribution, suggesting that random processes cannot explain the observed patterns. National estimates of means and variances in population density were positively correlated with continental estimates, suggesting that means and variances were maintained across spatial scales. We used Morisita's index of population abundance as an estimate of heterogeneity in distribution among regions to test a number of predictions. Heterogeneously distributed passerine bird species as reflected by Morisita's index had small populations, low population densities, and small breeding ranges. Their breeding populations had been consistently maintained at low levels for considerable periods of time, because the degree of genetic variation in a subsample of non-passerines and passerines was significantly negatively related to heterogeneity in distribution. Heterogeneously distributed passerine species were not more often habitat specialists than homogeneously distributed species. Furthermore, heterogeneously distributed passerine species had high annual adult survival rates but did not differ in annual fecundity from homogeneously distributed species. Heterogeneously distributed passerine species rarely colonized urban habitats. Finally, homogeneously distributed bird species were hosts to a greater diversity of blood parasite species than heterogeneously distributed species. In conclusion, small breeding ranges, population sizes, and population densities of heterogeneously distributed passerine bird species, combined with their low degree of genetic variability, and their inability to colonize urban areas may render such species particularly susceptible to human-influenced global climatic changes.     

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.     

Uncertainties in Predictions of Surface Water Acidity using the MAGIC Model

In this study, we have used the MAGIC model together with data from the Birkenes catchment in Norway, at which 27 years of data (1974–2000) are available. We calibrated the MAGIC model to the five year observed average chemistry around 1990, and then used the data from the five year period around 1980 to refine the calibration. From 1990, forecasts were run for the different sets of inputs and parameters, and the sets of inputs and parameters were further refined using observations for the period 1996–2000. Through an automatic calibration routine, the model was calibrated a large number of times with different sets of input data to account for the uncertainties in the observed data using a Monte Carlo set-up. The results show that the uncertainty in the model predictions decreases as more observed data from different points in time are used in the model calibration. The results also show that when usingthe time series data in calibration, the distribution of the forecastchanged. The distribution of the predicted Acid Neutralisation Capacity (ANC) in the future is lower for the more refined model calibration. The 10 and 90 percentiles of predicted ANC in 2010 are –3 to 21 μeq L^-1 when only a five-year average is used for calibration, but are –7 to 9 μeq L^-1 when data from the three different time periods are used.     

Phenotype-dependent arrival time and its consequences in a migratory bird

Arrival times for migratory animals can be viewed as the result of an optimization process of costs and benefits of early arrival, and when the cost and benefit functions of early arrival depend on phenotypic quality, this will result in phenotype-dependent optimal arrival times. This hypothesis was tested for males of the migratory and sexually size-dimorphic barn swallow Hirundo rustica. The major cost of early arrival is poor environmental conditions which resulted in mortality of short-tailed early-arriving males in one year. The major benefits of early arrival are higher mating success, enhanced reproductive success, improved recruitment rates for offspring, and enhanced quality of the mate acquired. Annual variation in male arrival date is related to weather conditions at the breeding grounds, but also to some extent to weather conditions in the African winter quarters. Individual variation in arrival time can be explained by phenotype-dependent cost and benefit functions of early arrival. Male barn swallows with long tail ornaments arrived earlier than short-tailed males. The costs of early arrival should be particularly high under poor environmental conditions and lead to a stronger negative relationship between arrival date and phenotypic quality in years with poor environmental conditions. This prediction was confirmed by a stronger negative relationship between male tail length and date of arrival in years when arrival was relatively late because of poor weather. A female preference for early-arriving males may result in acquisition of good genes for optimal migratory behaviour, if migratory direction and extent have a genetic basis as shown in a number of different bird species.     

Correlated evolution of male and female testosterone profiles in birds and its consequences

Circulating levels of testosterone in adults have mainly evolved as a consequence of selection on males for increased levels, while levels of circulating testosterone in females may be an indirect consequence of selection on males. A review of the literature revealed that intense directional selection for high levels of circulating testosterone in birds is likely to be mainly due to direct selection on males. A comparative study of testosterone levels in birds revealed a strong positive relationship between peak testosterone levels in adult females and peak levels in males. The slope of this relationship was significantly less than unity, implying that the testosterone levels in females have been reduced in species with high levels in males. An analysis of the order of evolutionary events suggested that peak concentration of testosterone in females changed after peak concentrations of testosterone in males. Females in colonial species of birds had significantly higher circulating peak testosterone levels compared to females of solitary species, and relative levels after controlling for the effects of peak levels in males were also larger, suggesting that any costs of high testosterone levels in females are particularly likely in colonial birds. Direct selection on male circulating testosterone levels may increase the costs that females incur from high testosterone titers. For example, high female levels may negatively affect ovulation and laying and may also affect the levels of testosterone that females deposit in their eggs and hence the exposure of pre- and post-hatching offspring to testosterone. This in turn may affect not only offspring behavior, but also offspring development and the trade-offs between growth, development of immune function, and behavior in offspring.