A spatially explicit framework for quantifying downstream hydrologic conditions

Continued improvements in spatial datasets and hydrological modeling algorithms within Geographic Information Systems (GISs) have enhanced opportunities for watershed analysis. With more detailed hydrology layers and watershed delineation techniques, we can now better represent and model landscape to water quality relationships. Two challenges in modeling these relationships are selecting the appropriate spatial scale of watersheds for the receiving stream segment, and handling the network or pass-through issues of connected watersheds. This paper addresses these two important issues for enhancing cumulative watershed capabilities in GIS. Our modeling framework focuses on the delineation of stream-segment-level watershed boundaries for 1:24 000 scale hydrology, in combination with a topological network model. The result is a spatially explicit, vector-based, spatially cumulative watershed modeling framework for quantifying watershed conditions to aid in restoration. We demonstrate the new insights available from this modeling framework in a cumulative mining index for the management of aquatic resources in a West Virginia watershed.     

Evaluating landfill disposal of chromated copper arsenate (CCA) treated wood and potential effects on groundwater: evidence from Florida

Chromated copper arsenate (CCA) treated wood has been used for more than 50 years. Recent attention has been focused on appropriate disposal of CCA-treated wood when its service life ends. Groups in the US and Europe concerned with the possibility of arsenic migration to groundwater from disposed CCA-treated wood have proposed that consumers be required to dispose of the wood as a hazardous waste, in the most protective of landfills. We examined available data for evidence of arsenic migration from unlined construction and demolition (C&D) debris landfills in Florida, where CCA-treated wood is disposed. Florida was chosen because soil, groundwater, landfill design, weather, and levels of CCA-treated wood use make the state a uniquely sensitive indicator for observing arsenic migration from CCA-treated wood disposal sites, should it occur. We developed and quality-checked a CCA-treated wood disposal model to estimate the amount of wood and associated arsenic disposed. By 2000, an estimated 13 million kg of arsenic in CCA-treated wood was disposed in Florida; however, groundwater monitoring data do not indicate that arsenic is migrating from unlined C&D landfills. Our results provide evidence that highly stringent regulation of CCA-treated wood disposal, such as treatment as a hazardous waste, is unnecessary.     

Using citizen science data to identify the sensitivity of species to human land use

Conservation practitioners must contend with an increasing array of threats that affect biodiversity. Citizen scientists can provide timely and expansive information for addressing these threats across large scales, but their data may contain sampling biases. We used randomization procedures to account for possible sampling biases in opportunistically reported citizen science data to identify species’ sensitivities to human land use. We analyzed 21,044 records of 143 native reptile and amphibian species reported to the Carolina Herp Atlas from North Carolina and South Carolina between 1 January 1990 and 12 July 2014. Sensitive species significantly associated with natural landscapes were 3.4 times more likely to be legally protected or treated as of conservation concern by state resource agencies than less sensitive species significantly associated with human‐dominated landscapes. Many of the species significantly associated with natural landscapes occurred primarily in habitats that had been nearly eradicated or otherwise altered in the Carolinas, including isolated wetlands, longleaf pine savannas, and Appalachian forests. Rare species with few reports were more likely to be associated with natural landscapes and 3.2 times more likely to be legally protected or treated as of conservation concern than species with at least 20 reported occurrences. Our results suggest that opportunistically reported citizen science data can be used to identify sensitive species and that species currently restricted primarily to natural landscapes are likely at greatest risk of decline from future losses of natural habitat. Our approach demonstrates the usefulness of citizen science data in prioritizing conservation and in helping practitioners address species declines and extinctions at large extents.     

Tropical amphibians in shifting thermal landscapes under land‐use and climate change

Land‐cover and climate change are both expected to alter species distributions and contribute to future biodiversity loss. However, the combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on assemblages, especially at the landscape scale, remain understudied. Lowland tropical amphibians may be particularly susceptible to changes in land cover and climate warming because many species have narrow thermal safety margins resulting from air and body temperatures that are close to their critical thermal maxima (CT_max). We examined how changing thermal landscapes may alter the area of thermally suitable habitat (TSH) for tropical amphibians. We measured microclimates in 6 land‐cover types and CT_max of 16 frog species in lowland northeastern Costa Rica. We used a biophysical model to estimate core body temperatures of frogs exposed to habitat‐specific microclimates while accounting for evaporative cooling and behavior. Thermally suitable habitat area was estimated as the portion of the landscape where species CT_max exceeded their habitat‐specific maximum body temperatures. We projected changes in TSH area 80 years into the future as a function of land‐cover change only, climate change only, and combinations of land‐cover and climate‐change scenarios representing low and moderate rates of change. Projected decreases in TSH area ranged from 16% under low emissions and reduced forest loss to 30% under moderate emissions and business‐as‐usual land‐cover change. Under a moderate emissions scenario (A1B), climate change alone contributed to 1.7‐ to 4.5‐fold greater losses in TSH area than land‐cover change only, suggesting that future decreases in TSH from climate change may outpace structural habitat loss. Forest‐restricted species had lower mean CT_max than species that occurred in altered habitats, indicating that thermal tolerances will likely shape assemblages in changing thermal landscapes. In the face of ongoing land‐cover and climate change, it will be critical to consider changing thermal landscapes in strategies to conserve ectotherm species.     

Land Use Planning and Social Equity in North Carolina’s Compensatory Wetland and Stream Mitigation Programs

The U.S. Clean Water Act requires compensatory mitigation for wetland and stream damage through restoration of damaged aquatic ecosystems. We evaluate the North Carolina’s Ecosystem Enhancement Program (EEP), a state agency responsible for compensatory mitigation. We compare communities gaining and losing aquatic resources during mitigation, finding new types of socioeconomic disparities that contradict previous studies of mitigation program behavior. We find average distances between impact and mitigation sites for streams (43.53 km) and wetlands (50.3 km) to be larger in North Carolina than in off-site mitigation programs in other regions previously studied. We also find that aquatic resources in the State are lost from urbanized areas that are more affluent, white, and highly educated, and mitigated at sites in rural areas that are less affluent, less well educated, and have a higher percentage of minorities. We also analyze the relationship between urban growth indicators and EEP accumulation of compensation sites. Growth indicators and long-term population projections are uncorrelated with both projected transportation impacts and advance mitigation acquired by the EEP, suggesting that growth considerations can be more effectively incorporated into the EEP’s planning process. We explore the possibility that spatial mismatches could develop between watersheds that are rapidly growing and those that are gaining mitigation. We make recommendations for ways that regulators incorporate growth indicators into the mitigation planning process.     

Dynamic selective environments and evolutionary traps in human-dominated landscapes

Human activities can alter selective environments in ways that can reduce the usefulness of certain ornamental traits as honest signals of individual quality and, in some cases, may create evolutionary traps, where rapid changes in selective environments result in maladaptive behavioral decisions. Using the sexually dichromatic, socially monogamous Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) as a model, we hypothesized that urbanization would erode the relationship between plumage coloration and reproductive success. Because the exotic Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii) provides carotenoids, is a preferred habitat attribute, and increases vulnerability to nest predation, we predicted the presence of an evolutionary trap, whereby the brightest males would achieve the lowest reproductive success. Working at 14 forests in Ohio, USA, 2006-2008, we measured plumage color, monitored reproduction, and quantified habitat within territories. In rural landscapes, the brightest males bred earliest in the season and secured more preferred territories; however, annual reproduction declined with plumage brightness. Coloration of urban males was not associated with territory attributes or reproduction. Female redness across all landscapes was negatively related to reproduction. Poor reproductive performance of otherwise higher-quality males probably resulted from preferences for honeysuckle, which reduces annual reproduction when used as a nesting substrate early in the season. In this way, exotic shrubs prompted an evolutionary trap that was avoided in urban forests where anthropogenic resources disassociated male color and reproductive phenology and success. Our study illustrates how modified selective environments in human-dominated landscapes might shape microevolutionary processes in wild bird populations.     

The high cost of mutualism: effects of four species of East African ant symbionts on their myrmecophyte host tree

Three recent meta-analyses of protective plant-ant mutualisms report a surprisingly weak relationship between herbivore protection and measured demographic benefits to ant-plants, suggesting high tolerance for herbivory, substantial costs of ant-mediated defense, and/or benefits that are realized episodically rather than continuously. Experimental manipulations of protective ant-plant associations typically last for less than a year, yet virtually all specialized myrmecophytes are long-lived perennials for which the costs and benefits of maintaining ant symbionts could accrue at different rates over the host's lifetime. To complement long-term monitoring studies, we experimentally excluded each of four ant symbionts from their long-lived myrmecophyte host trees (Acacia drepanolobium) for 4.5 years. Ant species varied in their effectiveness against herbivores and in their effects on intermediate-term growth and reproduction, but the level of herbivore protection provided was a poor predictor of the net impact they had on host trees. Removal of the three Crematogaster species resulted in cumulative gains in host tree growth and/or reproduction over the course of the experiment, despite the fact that two of those species significantly reduce chronic herbivore damage. In contrast, although T. penzigi is a relatively poor defender, the low cost of maintaining this ant symbiont apparently eliminated negative impacts on overall tree growth and reproduction, resulting in enhanced allocation to new branch growth by the final census. Acacia drepanolobium is evidently highly tolerant of herbivory by insects and small browsers, and the costs of maintaining Crematogaster colonies exceeded the benefits received during the study. No experimental trees were killed by elephants, but elephant damage was uniquely associated with reduced tree growth, and at least one ant species (C. mimosae) strongly deterred elephant browsing. We hypothesize that rare but catastrophic damage by elephants may be more important than chronic herbivory in maintaining the costly myrmecophyte habit in this system.     

Sources and fate of Salmonella and fecal indicator bacteria in an urban creek

This research aimed to understand the sources and fate of Salmonella and fecal bacteria in urban surface waters. An urban creek (San Pedro Creek, California, USA) that had unusually high levels of Salmonella and fecal bacteria relative to other nearby waterbodies was chosen as a model field site. State of the art microbiological methods were used in concert with modeling to investigate Salmonella and fecal bacteria sources, and determine field-relevant dark inactivation and photoinactivation rates. Three along-creek surveys that spanned reaches adjacent to both urban and forested land covers were conducted to measure Salmonella, enterococci, Escherichia coli, and horse- and human-specific Bacteroidales. Salmonella were detected adjacent to and downstream of urban land cover, but not adjacent to forested land cover. No human or horse-specific Bacteroidales fecal markers were detected implicating other urban animal sources of bacteria. Two locations along the creek where Salmonella was consistently detected were sampled hourly for 25 hours and a mass-balance model was applied to determine field-relevant light and dark inactivation rates for Salmonella, enterococci, and E. coli. Sunlight inactivation did not appear to be important in modulating concentrations of Salmonella, but was important in modulating both enterococci and E. coli concentrations. Dark inactivation was important for all three organisms. This is the first study to quantitatively examine the fate of Salmonella within an urban surface water. Although the work is carried out at a single site, the methodologies are extendable to source tracking in other waterbodies. Additionally, the rate constants determined through the modeling will be useful for modeling these organisms in other surface waters, and represent useful benchmarks for comparison to laboratory-derived inactivation rates.     

Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.     

Variation in growth rate and reproductive output in British populations of the dorid nudibranch Adalaria proxima: consequences of restricted larval dispersal?

 Growth and reproduction were compared among six geographically and genetically distinct intertidal populations of the annual, semelparous, dorid nudibranch Adalaria proxima (Alder & Hancock) to evaluate variation in fitness-related traits. The six populations spanned the geographic range in the northern British Isles: NE England (Cowling Scar), E Scotland (Kinkell Braes), NW Scotland (Loch Eriboll), W Scotland (Cuan Ferry), Northern Ireland (Portaferry), and N Wales (Menai Bridge). Nudibranchs from five sites were collected in July to August 1992 as post-metamorphic juveniles and were laboratory-reared under the same conditions of ambient temperature and photoperiod for up to 10 months and the completion of spawning. Individuals from the sixth site were added to the experiment in December 1992. Growth was monitored every 2 weeks, and reproductive performance was expressed as a weight-adjusted dimensionless index (ΣRI) of each individual's spawnings summed over the reproductive period. In general, larger nudibranchs produced larger first spawn masses and more total spawn than did smaller nudibranchs, but these size-related trends were observed only in some populations. The patterns of energy partitioning to spawnings varied significantly among populations, from allocations of a large number of eggs to few spawn masses (Loch Eriboll) to production of many small spawnings over a long spawning period (Portaferry). There was no relationship between maximum body size and the amount of spawn produced after the first spawning, nor to the length of the spawning period or the number of spawn produced. Both Menai Bridge and Kinkell Braes had low mean population ΣRI, reflecting a very poor reproductive performance, given their large maximum (pre-spawning) body sizes. By contrast, the Loch Eriboll, Cuan Ferry, and Portaferry populations all displayed high mean population ΣRI, albeit as a result of differing combinations of numbers and sizes of spawn masses and duration of the spawning period. This high variance of reproductive allocation among populations, and previous evidence of relatively stable among-population differences in allozyme frequencies, adult color, and embryo characteristics suggest very restricted larval transport of lecithotrophic larvae of A. proxima. Received: 10 December 1998 / Accepted: 23 March 2000