Sex-specific patterns of lifetime reproductive success in single and repeat breeding steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

All other things being equal, the lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of iteroparous and semelparous individuals should scale with the number of breeding seasons. Deviations from this relationship may occur for many reasons, including age- or size-related fecundity or life history trade-offs, which may differ between sexes. We used 19 brood years of DNA parentage analysis in a small (N = 4–143 year⁻¹) wild, unexploited population of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to compare the LRS of individuals that spawned only once [“one time spawners” (OTS), N = 355 male, 371 female] to those spawning twice [“repeat spawners” (RPS), N = 13 male, 49 female]. Female RPS had nearly twice the LRS of female OTS (1.17 offspring per female vs 0.91 offspring per female), whereas male RPS had nearly three times the LRS of male OTS (1.54 offspring per male vs 0.57 offspring per male). Female RPS produced slightly more adult offspring during their second breeding season than their first (0.78 vs 0.82 offspring per female); however, male RPS produced all of their adult offspring in their second breeding season (0 vs 1.54 offspring per male). The additional growth in body size of males between breeding seasons may give them an advantage in their second breeding season, but the lack of offspring produced in their first season suggests a trade-off between survival and future reproduction that was not expressed in females.     

The development and application of a multilevel decision analysis model for the remediation of contaminated groundwater under uncertainty

A study was initiated which combined elements of stochastic hydrology, risk assessment, simulation modeling, cost analysis and decision making to define the optimum remediation choice(s) for a Superfund site in the southern United States. The effort focused upon the premise that groundwater remediation is inherently complex due to uncertainties in the geological matrix as well as in contaminant concentrations at points of compliance and/or exposure. The technical analyst should supply the decision maker with estimates of these uncertainties as well as the cost penalties required to reduce them to manageable levels. Monte Carlo transport modeling was employed to define the probability of contaminant excursions from the site, while geostatistical simulation identified a joint plume configuration and its attendant probability. Bayesian modeling was used to define the worth of additional data. These individual components were combined within a Decision Model to identify optimum remediation configurations for a given levels of risk tolerance which could be supplied by the decision maker or affected community. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to define ranges over which the decision would not be affected by variation in the respective decision parameter.     

Transport and fate of nitrate in headwater agricultural streams in Illinois

Nitrogen inputs to the Gulf of Mexico have increased during recent decades and agricultural regions in the upper Midwest, such as those in Illinois, are a major source of N to the Mississippi River. How strongly denitrification affects the transport of nitrate (NO(3)-N) in Illinois streams has not been directly assessed. We used the nutrient spiraling model to assess the role of in-stream denitrification in affecting the concentration and downstream transport of NO(3)-N in five headwater streams in agricultural areas of east-central Illinois. Denitrification in stream sediments was measured approximately monthly from April 2001 through January 2002. Denitrification rates tended to be high (up to 15 mg N m(-2) h(-1)), but the concentration of NO(3)-N in the streams was also high (>7 mg N L(-1)). Uptake velocities for NO(3)-N (uptake rate/concentration) were lower than reported for undisturbed streams, indicating that denitrification was not an efficient N sink relative to the concentration of NO(3)-N in the water column. Denitrification uptake lengths (the average distance NO(3)-N travels before being denitrified) were long and indicated that denitrification in the streambed did not affect the transport of NO(3)-N. Loss rates for NO(3)-N in the streams were <5% d(-1) except during periods of low discharge and low NO(3)-N concentration, which occurred only in late summer and early autumn. Annually, most NO(3)-N in these headwater sites appeared to be exported to downstream water bodies rather than denitrified, suggesting previous estimates of N losses through in-stream denitrification may have been overestimated.     

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.